{"id":21501,"date":"2023-12-06T02:44:42","date_gmt":"2023-12-06T02:44:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/thuyet-thi-truong-hieu-qua-efficient-market-hypothesis-la-gi.html"},"modified":"2023-12-22T04:55:20","modified_gmt":"2023-12-21T21:55:20","slug":"thuyet-thi-truong-hieu-qua-efficient-market-hypothesis-la-gi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/thuyet-thi-truong-hieu-qua-efficient-market-hypothesis-la-gi.html","title":{"rendered":"Thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 Efficient market hypothesis l\u00e0 g\u00ec?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
<\/figure>\n

Efficient market hypothesis l\u00e0 g\u00ec hay gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 g\u00ec s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i \u0111\u00e1p c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 qua n\u1ed9i dung sau.<\/p>\n

Efficient market hypothesis l\u00e0 g\u00ec?<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 (EMH) \u0111\u01b0a ra gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft v\u1ec1 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa th\u00f4ng tin c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 giao d\u1ecbch tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i (t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u00f4ng khai).<\/p>\n

Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng khi th\u00f4ng tin m\u1edbi xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 tin t\u1ee9c g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 theo th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n kh\u00e1c s\u1ebd \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi n\u00f3. Do \u0111\u00f3, c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lu\u00f4n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch tr\u00ean s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb h\u1ee3p l\u00fd c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang.<\/p>\n

R\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u00fang c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u00fang th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, n\u00ean c\u00e1ch duy nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn cao h\u01a1n l\u00e0 mua c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 r\u1ee7i ro h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cH\u1ea7u h\u1ebft nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u tin ch\u1eafc r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng cho ph\u00e9p b\u1ea1n ki\u1ebfm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn cao tr\u1eeb khi b\u1ea1n ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng r\u1ee7i ro h\u1ee3p l\u00fd.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

C\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

C\u00f3 ba bi\u1ebfn th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft \u2013 d\u1ea1ng y\u1ebfu, n\u1eeda m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 m\u1ea1nh \u2013 \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho ba m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00e1c nhau v\u1ec1 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. V\u1eady \u00fd ngh\u0129a c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c Efficient market hypothesis l\u00e0 g\u00ec?<\/p>\n

D\u1ea1ng y\u1ebfu<\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u1ea1ng y\u1ebfu EMH g\u1ee3i \u00fd r\u1eb1ng hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o cho k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai ch\u1ec9 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch xem x\u00e9t gi\u00e1 trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9.\u00a0V\u00ec v\u1eady, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1ebfu s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ho\u1eb7c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9.<\/p>\n

N\u00f3i \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n, ch\u1ec9 d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o th\u00f4ng tin trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 th\u00ec b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng th\u1eafng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/strong><\/p>\n

EMH d\u1ea1ng b\u00e1n m\u1ea1nh<\/strong><\/p>\n

C\u01a1 s\u1edf c\u1ee7a h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c b\u00e1n m\u1ea1nh l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh theo th\u00f4ng tin m\u1edbi c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n c\u00f4ng khai m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch nhanh ch\u00f3ng v\u00e0 theo c\u00e1ch kh\u00f4ng thi\u00ean v\u1ecb, \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n khi giao d\u1ecbch tr\u00ean th\u00f4ng tin \u0111\u00f3.<\/p>\n

EMH d\u1ea1ng m\u1ea1nh<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u1ede d\u1ea1ng n\u00e0y, t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 th\u00f4ng tin c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n, c\u1ea3 c\u00f4ng khai v\u00e0 ri\u00eang t\u01b0, c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n n\u00e0o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn th\u1eb7ng d\u1ef1 ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

H\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khi t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c r\u00e0o c\u1ea3n ph\u00e1p l\u00fd \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c c\u00f4ng khai th\u00f4ng tin ri\u00eang t\u01b0. C\u00e1ch duy nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 trong m\u1ed9t m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 v\u1eady l\u00e0 b\u1ecf qua c\u00e1c r\u00e0o c\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c th\u00f4ng tin ri\u00eang t\u01b0 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng khai, \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh th\u00f4ng tin ri\u00eang t\u01b0 c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00f4ng khai.<\/p>\n

EMH kh\u00f4ng n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.\u00a0N\u00f3 n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi thua thi\u1ec7t l\u1edbn tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.\u00a0Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u201ctr\u00fang th\u01b0\u1edfng\u201d l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi may m\u1eafn v\u00e0\u00a0nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u201cthua cu\u1ed9c\u201d l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng may m\u1eafn.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bitcoin l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 phi t\u1eadp trung \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 theo cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. B\u1edfi v\u00ec Bitcoin kh\u00f4ng tr\u1ea3 c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cung c\u1ea5p b\u1edfi c\u01a1 quan trung \u01b0\u01a1ng, gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng, th\u00f4ng tin v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Bitcoin lu\u00f4n c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1. Do \u0111\u00f3, Bitcoin l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi th\u00f4ng tin c\u00f4ng khai.<\/p>\n

EMH v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 EMH, ngay c\u1ea3 \u1edf d\u1ea1ng y\u1ebfu, th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ho\u1eb7c qu\u1ef9 ho\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed5i danh m\u1ee5c ETF nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 b\u1edfi v\u00ec nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3n ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u00e0 c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng kh\u1edbp, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1i, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 theo ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd \u0111ang \u0111i theo c\u00e2u n\u00f3i ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn n\u00e0y: \u201cN\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1i h\u1ecd, h\u00e3y tham gia c\u00f9ng h\u1ecd\u201d. Thay v\u00ec c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, h\u1ecd s\u1ebd mua m\u1ed9t qu\u1ef9 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 m\u00e0 qu\u1ef9 n\u00e0y s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n gi\u1ed1ng v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 chu\u1ea9n.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u1eabn s\u1ebd c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, tin r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc, \u00edt nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 \u1edf m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3. V\u00ec l\u00fd do \u0111\u00f3, EMH kh\u00f4ng ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch trong ng\u00e0y. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. Sau \u0111\u00f3, h\u1ecd c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng t\u00ecm ra th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m mua v\u00e0 b\u00e1n d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y s\u1ebd t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i EMH \u1edf d\u1ea1ng m\u1ea1nh.<\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 tin r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p l\u00fd c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang. Warren Buffet \u0111\u00e3 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i, \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3.<\/p>\n

Tr\u00ean \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 chia s\u1ebb v\u1ec1 efficient market hypothesis l\u00e0 g\u00ec c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111i\u1ec1u li\u00ean quan, hi v\u1ecdng b\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin b\u1ed5 \u00edch.<\/p>\n

Nguy\u1ec5n L\u00fd<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Efficient market hypothesis l\u00e0 g\u00ec hay gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 g\u00ec s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i \u0111\u00e1p c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 qua n\u1ed9i dung sau.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[429],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21501"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21501"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21501\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}