{"id":21537,"date":"2023-12-06T02:46:01","date_gmt":"2023-12-06T02:46:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/discounted-cash-flow-la-gi-uu-va-nhuoc-diem-ra-sao.html"},"modified":"2023-12-06T02:46:01","modified_gmt":"2023-12-06T02:46:01","slug":"discounted-cash-flow-la-gi-uu-va-nhuoc-diem-ra-sao","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/discounted-cash-flow-la-gi-uu-va-nhuoc-diem-ra-sao.html","title":{"rendered":"Discounted cash flow l\u00e0 g\u00ec? \u01afu v\u00e0 nh\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec3m ra sao?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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<\/figure>\n

Discounted cash flow<\/strong> l\u00e0 g\u00ec l\u00e0 th\u1eafc m\u1eafc c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi khi t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh n\u00f3i chung. C\u1ee5m t\u1eeb discounted cash flow c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n, l\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ho\u1eb7c doanh nghi\u1ec7p t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 khi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u kh\u1edfi nghi\u1ec7p.<\/p>\n

Discounted cash flow l\u00e0 g\u00ec?<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Discounted cash flow (DCF) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u1ed1n.<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 h\u1ecdc thu\u1eadt, discounted cash flow \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec3u l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u00edch l\u0169y d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn.<\/p>\n

N\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai sau khi \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1eeb chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u mang gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb cao h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i th\u00ec c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 xem x\u00e9t c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00e0y v\u00ec n\u00f3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i t\u1ed1t v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t chi ph\u00ed, ch\u01b0a t\u00ednh c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c. T\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 kh\u1ea3 thi c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u00f3.<\/p>\n

N\u00f3i m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch d\u1ec5 hi\u1ec3u h\u01a1n, khi nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u1eafm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c discounted cash flow l\u00e0 g\u00ec trong m\u1ed9t tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, h\u1ecd s\u1ebd c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u00f3 xu\u1ed1ng ti\u1ec1n cho d\u1ef1 \u00e1n hay doanh nghi\u1ec7p hay kh\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n

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\u201cDiscounted cash flow d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi: B\u1ea1n s\u1ebd nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bao nhi\u00eau ti\u1ec1n t\u1eeb kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00e0y sau m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u00f3 nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o so v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n ki\u1ebfm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1eeb c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00e1c?\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u01afu \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0 nh\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a discounted cash flow<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

\u01afu \u0111i\u1ec3m<\/strong><\/p>\n

DCF ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 nh\u1eefng c\u00f4ng ty m\u1edbi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u h\u00e0nh trang chinh chi\u1ebfn tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. B\u1edfi v\u00ec \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 n\u00e0y s\u1ebd t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb doanh nghi\u1ec7p t\u1ea1o ra trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 hay hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, c\u00e1c start-up c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 \u0111ang l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng doanh nghi\u1ec7p ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n l\u1edbn m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 h\u1ecd l\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng s\u1edf h\u1eefu t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh nhi\u1ec1u; \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi \u0111ang nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u ng\u00e1ch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi th\u00ec kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u00f9ng c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u00f4ng qua t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n hay m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ea1nh tranh tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. V\u00e0 l\u00fac n\u00e0y, c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 DCF l\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u00edch h\u1ee3p h\u01a1n h\u1ebft.<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec3m<\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u1eady \u0111i\u1ec3m y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a discounted cash flow l\u00e0 g\u00ec? \u0110\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c mang \u0111\u1ebfn nhi\u1ec1u r\u1ee7i ro cho qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u0169ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i d\u1ec5 hi\u1ec3u v\u00ec vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 n\u00e0y d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u1ef1 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 kinh doanh trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. V\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh doanh lu\u00f4n lu\u00f4n ti\u1ec1m t\u00e0ng nhi\u1ec1u v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 r\u1ee7i ro.<\/p>\n

D\u00f9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 s\u1ebd g\u1eb7p ph\u1ea3i v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00fac n\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 tr\u00f9 n\u00e0y c\u0169ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u00ec c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 nh\u01b0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed l\u00e0 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh d\u1ecbch b\u1ec7nh ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t\u00ednh discounted cash flow \u2013 d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

DCF g\u1ed3m 3 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng bao g\u1ed3m: (1) DDM (Dividend discount model) t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n l\u00e0 c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c; (2) FCFE (Free cash flow to equity) t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ef1 do c\u1ee7a v\u1ed1n ch\u1ee7 s\u1edf h\u1eefu v\u00e0 (3) FCFF (Free cash flow to firm) t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ef1 do c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty.<\/p>\n

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1eddi gian c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n v\u00e0 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa 2 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u00ednh: l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro. V\u1eady th\u1ee9c t\u00ednh Discounted Cash Flow l\u00e0 g\u00ec? \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0:<\/p>\n

Trong \u0111\u00f3:<\/p>\n

CFt: d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng m\u00e0 doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trong m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n

r: l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb trong hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

n: s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh trong c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t\u00ednh discounted cash flow l\u00e0 g\u00ec?<\/p>\n

D\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n CF<\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n ti\u1ec1n thanh to\u00e1n m\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trong m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n th\u1eddi gian x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1edf h\u1eefu m\u1ed9t t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu hay tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu.<\/p>\n

Trong th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty, CF th\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd l\u00e0 d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ef1 do. C\u00f2n khi th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu, CF l\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n g\u1ed1c v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n l\u00e3i.<\/p>\n

T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Khi \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 doanh nghi\u1ec7p, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh b\u1eb1ng chi ph\u00ed s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u1ed1n b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u1ea5y. D\u1ef1a v\u00e0o y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0y, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bi\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn m\u00e0 h\u1ecd mong \u0111\u1ee3i khi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n v\u00e0o doanh nghi\u1ec7p.<\/p>\n

S\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u1edf tr\u00ean, m\u1ed7i d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec1u li\u00ean k\u1ebft v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 th\u00e1ng \u2013 qu\u00fd hay n\u0103m t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh.<\/p>\n

C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u cho bi\u1ebft \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec?<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Khi \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ea7n l\u01b0u t\u00e2m ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1eddi gian c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n ho\u1eb7c t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ho\u00e0n v\u1ed1n mong mu\u1ed1n nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n

Khi s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t\u00ednh d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u th\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta s\u1ebd ph\u1ecfng \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh kh\u1ea3 thi c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n, t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n n\u00e0y s\u1ebd mang \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn, h\u00f2a v\u1ed1n hay l\u1ed7 v\u1ed1n. N\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u1ea3 \u00edt h\u01a1n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb DCF t\u00ednh ra th\u00ec t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ho\u00e0n v\u1ed1n s\u1ebd cao h\u01a1n t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb DCF \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh c\u0169ng \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cho gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb kho\u1ea3n v\u1ed1n m\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0a ra, d\u0129 nhi\u00ean l\u00e0 v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i t\u1ee9c y\u00eau c\u1ea7u cho kho\u1ea3n ti\u1ec1n m\u00e0 h\u1ecd s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/p>\n

Tr\u00ean \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 th\u00f4ng tin li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 discounted cash flow l\u00e0 g\u00ec c\u00f9ng c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb DCF m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch t\u1ed5ng qu\u00e1t nh\u1ea5t. Hy v\u1ecdng n\u00f3 s\u1ebd l\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n th\u00f4ng tin h\u1eefu \u00edch cho nh\u1eefng ai \u0111ang t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

Pha L\u00ea<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Discounted cash flow<\/strong> l\u00e0 g\u00ec l\u00e0 th\u1eafc m\u1eafc c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi khi t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh n\u00f3i chung. C\u1ee5m t\u1eeb discounted cash flow c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n, l\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ho\u1eb7c doanh nghi\u1ec7p t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 khi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u kh\u1edfi nghi\u1ec7p.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[429],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21537"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21537"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21537\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21537"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21537"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21537"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}