{"id":23792,"date":"2023-12-06T08:54:16","date_gmt":"2023-12-06T08:54:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/hieu-ung-bullwhip-bullwhip-effect-la-gi-nguyen-nhan.html"},"modified":"2023-12-22T09:04:30","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T02:04:30","slug":"hieu-ung-bullwhip-bullwhip-effect-la-gi-nguyen-nhan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/hieu-ung-bullwhip-bullwhip-effect-la-gi-nguyen-nhan.html","title":{"rendered":"Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng Bullwhip (Bullwhip Effect) l\u00e0 g\u00ec? Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n"},"content":{"rendered":"
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H\u00ecnh minh h\u1ecda (Ngu\u1ed3n: Imglade)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng Bullwhip<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng Bullwhip <\/b>trong ti\u1ebfng Anh g\u1ecdi l\u00e0: Bullwhip Effect.<\/b><\/p>\n

Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng Bullwhip<\/b> \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u b\u1edfi ti\u1ebfn s\u0129 Forrester (1961), theo \u0111\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t b\u1edfi c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty lu\u00f4n cao g\u1ea5p nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nhu c\u1ea7u th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. <\/p>\n

Qua c\u00e1c th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea, ti\u1ebfn s\u0129 Forrester (1961) ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n ra r\u1eb1ng, l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ra th\u01b0\u1eddng cao h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, m\u1ee9c sai l\u1ec7ch c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 dao \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00ean t\u1edbi 3-5 l\u1ea7n. <\/p>\n

Hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Forrester \u0111\u1eb7t t\u00ean l\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng Bullwhip, c\u00f2n g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng c\u00e1i roi da <\/b>hay hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng \u0111u\u00f4i b\u00f2<\/b>. C\u00e1ch g\u1ecdi n\u00e0y ph\u1ecfng theo h\u00ecnh \u1ea3nh th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a chi\u1ebfc roi da, ch\u1ec9 m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng dao \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u1ecf \u1edf g\u1ed1c c\u00e2y roi, s\u1ebd g\u00e2y ra l\u01b0\u1ee3ng dao \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn \u1edf cu\u1ed1i chi\u1ebfc roi. <\/p>\n

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Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n<\/font>
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Forrester (1961) \u0111\u00e3 l\u00ed gi\u1ea3i hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng Bullwhip b\u1edfi b\u1ed1n nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n sau: <\/p>\n

– Th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, sai l\u1ec7ch th\u00f4ng tin d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn sai l\u1ec7ch d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o nhu c\u1ea7u. <\/p>\n

– Th\u1ee9 hai, chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u0103ng qui m\u00f4 \u0111\u01a1n h\u00e0ng nh\u1eb1m t\u1ed1i \u01b0u chi ph\u00ed. <\/p>\n

– Th\u1ee9 ba, bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3. <\/p>\n

– Th\u1ee9 t\u01b0, tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf v\u00e0 thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t. <\/p>\n

B\u1ed1n nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n theo nh\u01b0 Forrester \u0111\u01b0a ra, \u0111\u1ec1u xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n b\u00ean trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng kinh doanh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh vi n\u00e0y g\u00e2y ra hai t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp l\u00ean dao \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o sai nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed3n kho d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef. <\/p>\n

Sau khi ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n ra hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng Bullwhip, Forrester \u0111\u00e3 b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ea7u x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng n\u00ean m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh nh\u1eb1m l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cho hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng n\u00e0y. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh System Dynamics (H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng linh \u0111\u1ed9ng) do Forrester \u0111\u01b0a ra \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i trong ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c kinh doanh. <\/p>\n

Lee (1997) \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n h\u01a1n m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a Forrester tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 trong b\u00e0i b\u00e1o \u201cThe Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chain\u201d tr\u00ean t\u1ea1p ch\u00ed MIT Sloan Management Review n\u0103m 1997.<\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Ray Forrester v\u00e0 c\u00e1c h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 sau \u00f4ng x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng (Aviv, 2007, Carlsson v\u00e0 Fuller, 1999) \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00ed gi\u1ea3i nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n g\u00e2y ra hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng Bullwhip l\u00e0 c\u00e1c t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng kinh doanh. C\u00e1c t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00f3 bao g\u1ed3m: <\/p>\n

T\u00e2m l\u00ed kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng, nhi\u1ec5u th\u00f4ng tin c\u1ed1 \u00fd t\u1eeb c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 c\u1ea1nh tranh, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m m\u1edbi… Nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n n\u00e0y h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec1u bi\u1ebfn thi\u00ean theo th\u1eddi gian, v\u00ec v\u1eady t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 l\u00ean l\u01b0\u1ee3ng dao \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng c\u0169ng bi\u1ebfn thi\u00ean theo th\u1eddi gian. <\/p>\n

C\u00e1ch nh\u00ecn nh\u1eadn c\u1ee7a Forrester l\u00e0 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n h\u1ee3p l\u00ed, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ra c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng, v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean, c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m lo\u1ea1i n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra b\u1edfi c\u00e1c chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng d\u1ea1ng \u0111\u1ea9y (Push Supply Chain). <\/p>\n

D\u1ea1ng chu\u1ed7i n\u00e0y ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng theo nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o nhu c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1edbc trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i, s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ngay c\u1ea3 khi ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 \u0111\u01a1n \u0111\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m \u0111\u00e3 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ra. C\u00e1c k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o ph\u00e1n \u0111o\u00e1n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i do \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c y\u00eau c\u1ea7u t\u1eeb kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n

(T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o: Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng Bullwhip v\u00e0 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1eeb c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac c\u1ee7a chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng, L\u00ea Th\u1ecd, D\u01b0\u01a1ng M\u1ea1nh C\u01b0\u1eddng, T\u1ea1p ch\u00ed C\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng, )<\/i><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng Bullwhip (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Bullwhip Effect) l\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng sai l\u1ec7ch s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ra so v\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[414],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23792"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23792"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23792\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23792"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23792"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23792"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}