{"id":23980,"date":"2023-12-06T09:02:44","date_gmt":"2023-12-06T09:02:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/ki-vong-expectation-trong-kinh-te-hoc-la-gi.html"},"modified":"2023-12-22T09:29:52","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T02:29:52","slug":"ki-vong-expectation-trong-kinh-te-hoc-la-gi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/ki-vong-expectation-trong-kinh-te-hoc-la-gi.html","title":{"rendered":"K\u00ec v\u1ecdng (Expectation) trong kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc l\u00e0 g\u00ec?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
<\/div>
\n

H\u00ecnh minh h\u1ecda. Ngu\u1ed3n: Bruno Stocco<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

K\u00ec v\u1ecdng (Expectation)<\/font><\/h2>\n

\u0110\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a<\/b><\/p>\n

K\u00ec v\u1ecdng<\/b> trong ti\u1ebfng Anh l\u00e0 Expectation<\/b>.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a “k\u00ec v\u1ecdng” l\u00e0 t\u1eadp h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u00e0 m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0a ra v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. Nh\u1eefng gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn c\u00e1c c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n, doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, l\u00e0m cho nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u1ec1 k\u00ec v\u1ecdng tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

Hi\u1ec3u theo c\u00e1ch \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n nh\u1ea5t, k\u00ec\u00a0v\u1ecdng l\u00e0 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai nh\u1eb1m \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng h\u00e0nh vi kinh t\u1ebf hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

\u00dd ngh\u0129a c\u1ee7a k\u00ec v\u1ecdng<\/font><\/h3>\n

Nh\u1eefng g\u00ec m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi k\u00ec v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai s\u1ebd \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ecdi kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed<\/span> nh\u00e0 h\u00e0ng v\u1ec1 s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng trong m\u00f9a h\u00e8 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn anh ta thu\u00ea th\u00eam nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean ho\u1eb7c gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u01a1n \u0111\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng v\u1ec1 th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m trong nh\u00e0 h\u00e0ng. Hay k\u00ec v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang thay \u0111\u1ed5i l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t s\u1ebd thay \u0111\u1ed5i chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a c\u00f4 \u1ea5y.<\/p>\n

Do \u0111\u00f3, kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc l\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh. K\u00ec v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai n\u1eb1m \u1edf trung t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a m\u1ecdi l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn, v\u00ec v\u1eady ch\u00fang l\u00e0 tr\u00e1i tim c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc, v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0nh h\u1ecdc.<\/p>\n

V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 v\u1ec1 k\u00ec v\u1ecdng trong kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc?<\/font><\/h3>\n

M\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u1edbn ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft trong kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc l\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p x\u1eed l\u00ed<\/span> t\u00ednh b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t khi c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n c\u00f3 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c kh\u00e1c nhau v\u1ec1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n

K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3, nhi\u1ec1u ph\u00e2n t\u00edch kinh t\u1ebf g\u1eafn k\u00ec\u00a0v\u1ecdng v\u00e0o c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kh\u00e1c nhau v\u1edbi t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 cho tr\u01b0\u1edbc, th\u01b0\u1eddng d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1ecdi c\u00e1i kh\u00e1c kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i ho\u1eb7c b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 thuy\u1ebft k\u00ec\u00a0v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00ed<\/span>.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 k\u00ec\u00a0v\u1ecdng g\u1eafn v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi k\u00ec\u00a0v\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn ph\u00e2n t\u00edch kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u0129nh, ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta ch\u1ec9 quan s\u00e1t c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng, m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ch\u00fa \u00fd t\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang. M\u1ed9t h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n, nh\u01b0ng d\u1ec5 hi\u1ec3u c\u1ee7a k\u00ec\u00a0v\u1ecdng l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ec1 m\u1ea1ng nh\u1ec7n.<\/p>\n

Trong l\u00ed<\/span> thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf, nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 trong c\u00f4ng tr\u00ecnh nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a Keynes, k\u00ec\u00a0v\u1ecdng \u0111\u00f3ng m\u1ed9t vai tr\u00f2 quan tr\u1ecdng. K\u00ec\u00a0v\u1ecdng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh chu k\u00ec\u00a0kinh doanh v\u00e0 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7. K\u00ec\u00a0v\u1ecdng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a l\u1edbn khi nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u th\u1eddi h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a k\u00ec\u00a0v\u1ecdng v\u00e0o l\u00ed<\/span> thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 coi h\u00e0nh vi c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n l\u00e0 c\u00f3 t\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t th\u00edch nghi nh\u01b0 trong gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft k\u00ec\u00a0v\u1ecdng th\u00edch nghi. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m n\u00e0y r\u1ea5t d\u1ec5 hi\u1ec3u v\u00ec k\u00ec\u00a0v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u00f3 c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u1edf kinh nghi\u1ec7m qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, nh\u01b0ng nh\u1eefng n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c nh\u1eb1m ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh l\u1ea1i th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn nhi\u1ec1u m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00f3 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p<\/p>\n

(T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o: T\u1eeb \u0111i\u1ec3n Kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc, NXB \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Kinh t\u1ebf Qu\u1ed1c d\u00e2n; Bizfluent)<\/i><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n K\u00ec v\u1ecdng (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Expectation) l\u00e0 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai nh\u1eb1m \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng h\u00e0nh vi kinh t\u1ebf hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[414],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23980"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23980"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23980\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23980"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23980"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23980"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}