{"id":23994,"date":"2023-12-06T09:03:25","date_gmt":"2023-12-06T09:03:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/giai-doan-hung-thinh-expansion-trong-chu-ki-kinh-te-la-gi-dac-diem-va-luu-y.html"},"modified":"2023-12-22T09:30:35","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T02:30:35","slug":"giai-doan-hung-thinh-expansion-trong-chu-ki-kinh-te-la-gi-dac-diem-va-luu-y","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/giai-doan-hung-thinh-expansion-trong-chu-ki-kinh-te-la-gi-dac-diem-va-luu-y.html","title":{"rendered":"Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u01b0ng th\u1ecbnh (Expansion) trong chu k\u00ec kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 g\u00ec? \u0110\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0 l\u01b0u \u00fd"},"content":{"rendered":"
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(\u1ea2nh minh h\u1ecda: Secondwinconsultant )<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u01b0ng th\u1ecbnh<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u01b0ng th\u1ecbnh<\/b> trong ti\u1ebfng Anh l\u00e0 Expansion.<\/b>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u01b0ng th\u1ecbnh<\/b> l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t giai \u0111o\u1ea1n trong\u00a0chu k\u00ec kinh doanh\u00a0(business cycle) khi GDP th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trong hai qu\u00ed li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp tr\u1edf l\u00ean, chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e1y l\u00ean \u0111\u1ec9nh.<\/p>\n

Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u01b0ng th\u1ecbnh th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i k\u00e8m v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m, ni\u1ec1m tin c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ed1n. Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u01b0ng th\u1ecbnh li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u01b0ng th\u1ecbnh<\/font><\/h3>\n

S\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u1ea3m trong t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean hay kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch. Gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf s\u1ebd \u0111i theo chu k\u00ec v\u00f2ng tr\u00f2n v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i theo th\u1eddi gian.<\/p>\n

Qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 chu k\u00ec kinh doanh v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chia th\u00e0nh b\u1ed1n giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ri\u00eang bi\u1ec7t, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c:<\/p>\n

1. Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u01b0ng th\u1ecbnh (Expansion):<\/b> N\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang tho\u00e1t kh\u1ecfi suy tho\u00e1i. D\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng vay ti\u1ec1n , c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng kho ch\u1ee9a h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u chi ti\u00eau. GDP t\u0103ng, thu nh\u1eadp b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u0103ng, th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ed1n ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1t.<\/p>\n

2. Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ch\u1ea1m \u0111\u1ec9nh (Peak)<\/b>: Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u01b0ng th\u1ecbnh cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec9nh. Nhu c\u1ea7u m\u1ea1nh d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn chi ph\u00ed h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9t nhi\u00ean ng\u1eebng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng.<\/p>\n

3.\u00a0<\/b>Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n suy tho\u00e1i\u00a0(Recession)<\/b>: T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u suy y\u1ebfu. C\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty ng\u1eebng tuy\u1ec3n d\u1ee5ng khi nhu c\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u sa th\u1ea3i nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m chi ph\u00ed.<\/p>\n

4. Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ch\u1ea1m \u0111\u00e1y (Trough)<\/b>: N\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp t\u1eeb giai \u0111o\u1ea1n suy tho\u00e1i sang giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u01b0ng th\u1ecbnh. N\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ch\u1ea1m \u0111\u00e1y v\u00e0 m\u1edf \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cho s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i (Recovery).<\/p>\n

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\"Giai<\/div>
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(\u1ea2nh minh h\u1ecda: Investopedia )<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf, ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u r\u1ea5t k\u0129 chu k\u00ec kinh doanh. Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u1ec1 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u01b0ng th\u1ecbnh giai \u0111o\u1ea1n suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u00e0 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/p>\n

Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u01b0ng th\u1ecbnh k\u00e9o d\u00e0i trung b\u00ecnh kho\u1ea3ng 04 \u0111\u1ebfn 05 n\u0103m.<\/b><\/p>\n

C\u00e1c l\u01b0u \u00fd \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u01b0ng th\u1ecbnh<\/font><\/h3>\n

C\u00e1c\u00a0ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 d\u1eabn d\u1eaft\u00a0(Leading indicators) nh\u01b0 s\u1ed1 gi\u1edd trung b\u00ecnh l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c h\u1eb1ng tu\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p, s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01a1n \u0111\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng m\u1edbi cho h\u00e0ng ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng v\u00e0 gi\u1ea5y ph\u00e9p x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a ra manh m\u1ed1i v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u01b0ng th\u1ecbnh<\/b> ho\u1eb7c suy tho\u00e1i trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai g\u1ea7n hay kh\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00f3i chung \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd r\u1eb1ng c\u00f3 02 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh, x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng chung c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf:\u00a0chi ph\u00ed t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh\u00a0(Capital expenditure), v\u00e0\u00a0l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t\u00a0(Interest rate).<\/p>\n

Chu k\u00ec t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng<\/b><\/p>\n

Khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u00e9o d\u1eady, chi ph\u00ed \u0111i vay \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ea1 xu\u1ed1ng, khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng chi ti\u00eau nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n. Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng s\u1ebd c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u01b0a chu\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u01b0ng th\u1ecbnh b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, d\u00f2ng\u00a0ti\u1ec1n r\u1ebb\u00a0(Cheap money) v\u00e0 chi ti\u00eau t\u0103ng s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng, khi\u1ebfn ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. L\u00fac n\u00e0y m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u1ea1i ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf chi ti\u00eau v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh. Doanh thu c\u00f4ng ty gi\u1ea3m, gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf suy tho\u00e1i tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

Chu k\u00ec chi ti\u00eau v\u1ed1n<\/b><\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c chu k\u00ec di chuy\u1ec3n song song v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng lu\u00f4n thay \u0111\u1ed5i.<\/p>\n

Khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, chi ph\u00ed mua s\u1eafm v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed \u0111i vay r\u1ebb h\u01a1n, \u0111\u1ed9i ng\u0169 qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng v\u1ed1n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n

L\u00fac \u0111\u1ea7u, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn doanh s\u1ed1 cao h\u01a1n v\u00e0\u00a0thu nh\u1eadp tr\u00ean v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0\u00a0(ROIC) c\u0169ng kh\u00e1 l\u00ean. Sau \u0111\u00f3, s\u1ef1 c\u1ea1nh tranh tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u1ed1c li\u1ec7t h\u01a1n v\u00e0 l\u00f2ng tham s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3 gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, ngu\u1ed3n cung v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa c\u1ea7u, gi\u00e1 gi\u1ea3m, d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ec3 vay c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n h\u01a1n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn n\u00e0o kh\u00e1c ngo\u00e0i vi\u1ec7c sa th\u1ea3i nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean.<\/p>\n

(Theo Investopedia<\/i>)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u01b0ng th\u1ecbnh (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Expansion) l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t giai \u0111o\u1ea1n trong chu k\u00ec kinh doanh khi GDP th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trong hai qu\u00ed li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp tr\u1edf l\u00ean.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[414],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23994"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23994"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23994\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23994"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23994"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23994"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}