{"id":24045,"date":"2023-12-06T09:06:02","date_gmt":"2023-12-06T09:06:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/thien-lech-nhan-thuc-muon-hindsight-bias-la-gi-dac-diem.html"},"modified":"2023-12-22T09:30:39","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T02:30:39","slug":"thien-lech-nhan-thuc-muon-hindsight-bias-la-gi-dac-diem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/thien-lech-nhan-thuc-muon-hindsight-bias-la-gi-dac-diem.html","title":{"rendered":"Thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c mu\u1ed9n (Hindsight bias) l\u00e0 g\u00ec? \u0110\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u1ea2nh minh h\u1ecda. Ngu\u1ed3n: Non Prototype Language.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c mu\u1ed9n<\/font><\/b><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

Thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c mu\u1ed9n<\/b> trong ti\u1ebfng Anh l\u00e0\u00a0Hindsight bias<\/b>.<\/p>\n

Thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c mu\u1ed9n<\/b> l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e2m l\u00ed khi ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 qu\u00e1 cao kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n. Thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c mu\u1ed9n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi tin r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n h\u00f3a v\u1ec1 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n v\u00e0 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3. Thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c mu\u1ed9n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u trong\u00a0kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc h\u00e0nh vi.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a Thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c mu\u1ed9n<\/font><\/b><\/h3>\n

Thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c mu\u1ed9n th\u01b0\u1eddng hay xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n trong \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, v\u00ec \u00e1p l\u1ef1c v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi gian mua ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i \u0111a h\u00f3a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y h\u1ed1i ti\u1ebfc v\u00ec kh\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn ra xu h\u01b0\u1edbng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 xem s\u1ef1 qua \u0111\u1eddi \u0111\u1ed9t ng\u1ed9t v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng l\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t CEO quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng l\u1ebd n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00ec v\u1ecb CEO \u0111\u00f3 \u0111ang g\u1eb7p v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe.<\/p>\n

Thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c mu\u1ed9n c\u0169ng th\u01b0\u1eddng hay xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n trong hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng bong b\u00f3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. Sau\u00a0bong b\u00f3ng DotCom\u00a0v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1990 v\u00e0\u00a0Cu\u1ed9c\u00a0\u0111\u1ea1i kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng\u00a0n\u0103m 2008, nhi\u1ec1u chuy\u00ean gia v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng ch\u1ee9ng minh nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00f3 th\u1ef1c ra l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1m b\u00e1o cho nh\u1eefng r\u1eafc r\u1ed1i t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. N\u1ebfu bong b\u00f3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u hi\u1ec3n nhi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi d\u00e2n ch\u00fang, th\u00ec n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00e1nh ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00ean c\u1ea9n th\u1eadn khi \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 vi\u1ec7c c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 khi xem x\u00e9t kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh h\u1ecd trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i s\u1ebd \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o. Vi\u1ec7c tin t\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 t\u1ef1 tin th\u00e1i qu\u00e1, v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 t\u1ef1 tin th\u00e1i qu\u00e1 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ecdn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i v\u00ec hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang m\u00e0 v\u00ec l\u00ed do c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n. <\/p>\n

So s\u00e1nh gi\u1eefa Thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c mu\u1ed9n v\u00e0 \u0110\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i<\/font><\/b><\/h3>\n

Nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u1edf tr\u00ean, thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c mu\u1ed9n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch kh\u00e1ch quan v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, b\u00e1m s\u00e1t c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n.\u00a0Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i\u00a0\u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1eadt c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu, d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u00f9ng ho\u1eb7c kh\u00f4ng tr\u00f9ng v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i th\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00ednh, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kinh doanh c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty, qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (v\u00ed d\u1ee5: c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch b\u00e1o c\u00e1o t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh) \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u00f3 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c hay n\u1ebfu n\u00f3 \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 cao hay \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u (DCF) \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty. DCF s\u1ebd t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ef1 do c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty v\u00e0\u00a0chi ph\u00ed s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u1ed1n b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n\u00a0(WACC). <\/p>\n

(Theo\u00a0Investopedia<\/i>)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n Thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c mu\u1ed9n (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Hindsight bias) l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e2m l\u00ed khi ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 qu\u00e1 cao kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[414],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24045"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24045"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24045\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24045"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24045"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24045"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}