{"id":25310,"date":"2023-12-07T00:20:30","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T00:20:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/xac-suat-hau-nghiem-posterior-probability-la-gi-cong-thuc-tinh-xac-suat-hau-nghiem.html"},"modified":"2023-12-22T10:29:01","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T03:29:01","slug":"xac-suat-hau-nghiem-posterior-probability-la-gi-cong-thuc-tinh-xac-suat-hau-nghiem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/xac-suat-hau-nghiem-posterior-probability-la-gi-cong-thuc-tinh-xac-suat-hau-nghiem.html","title":{"rendered":"X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t h\u1eadu nghi\u1ec7m (Posterior Probability) l\u00e0 g\u00ec? C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t\u00ednh X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t h\u1eadu nghi\u1ec7m"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Hi\u0300nh minh ho\u0323a. Ngu\u00f4\u0300n: Youtube.com<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t h\u1eadu nghi\u1ec7m<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kha\u0301i ni\u00ea\u0323m<\/b><\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t h\u1eadu nghi\u1ec7m<\/b> trong ti\u00ea\u0301ng Anh la\u0300 Posterior Probability.<\/b><\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t h\u1eadu nghi\u1ec7m<\/b>, theo th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a Bayes, l\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ho\u1eb7c c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 x\u1ea3y ra sau khi xem x\u00e9t th\u00f4ng tin m\u1edbi.\u00a0<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t h\u1eadu nghi\u1ec7m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00ed Bayes.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Theo thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea, x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t h\u1eadu nghi\u1ec7m l\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 A x\u1ea3y ra do bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 B \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra.\u00a0<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m\u00a0theo Bayes, l\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 x\u1ea3y ra tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thu th\u1eadp.\u00a0<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m l\u00e0 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u00fang nh\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c v\u00e0 t\u00ednh logic \u1edf th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n.<\/p>\n

C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t\u00ednh X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t h\u1eadu nghi\u1ec7m\u00a0<\/font><\/h3>\n

C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t h\u1eadu nghi\u1ec7m<\/b> c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 A x\u1ea3y ra khi bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 B \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra:\u00a0<\/p>\n

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H\u00ecnh minh h\u1ecda.<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Trong \u0111\u00f3:<\/p>\n

\u00a0– A,B l\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1.<\/p>\n

\u00a0– P(B) v\u00e0 P(A) l\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 B x\u1ea3y ra v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 A x\u1ea3y ra.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0– P(BA) l\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 B x\u1ea3y ra khi bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 A \u0111\u00fang.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0– P(AB) l\u00e0 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh, l\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 A x\u1ea3y ra khi bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 B \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra.\u00a0 <\/p>\n

Ch\u1ee9c n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t h\u1eadu nghi\u1ec7m\u00a0<\/font><\/h3>\n

\u0110\u1ecbnh l\u00ed Bayes \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng trong nhi\u1ec1u l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c nhau nh\u01b0 y h\u1ecdc, t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trong t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t h\u1eadu nghi\u1ec7m<\/b> c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00ed Bayes c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt c\u00e1c ni\u1ec1m tin tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 m\u1ed9t khi c\u00f3 th\u00f4ng tin m\u1edbi.\u00a0<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho nh\u1eefng ni\u1ec1m tin ban \u0111\u1ea7u, tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng tin hay b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a ra v\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t h\u1eadu nghi\u1ec7m l\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt theo th\u00f4ng tin m\u1edbi n\u00e0y.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t h\u1eadu nghi\u1ec7m ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh t\u1ea1o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u so v\u1edbi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u1ec1n nghi\u1ec7m v\u00ec n\u00f3 t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t sau khi bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra, v\u00ec v\u1eady, bao h\u00e0m nhi\u1ec1u th\u00f4ng tin h\u01a1n. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t h\u1eadu nghi\u1ec7m\u00a0<\/font><\/h3>\n

M\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec3 h\u00ecnh dung x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t h\u1eadu nghi\u1ec7m<\/b> l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed c\u00f3 ba m\u1eabu \u0111\u1ea5t c\u00f3 nh\u00e3n A, B v\u00e0 C. Trong \u0111\u00f3, m\u1ed9t m\u1eabu \u0111\u1ea5t trong ba m\u1eabu A,B,C c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t tr\u1eef l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u b\u00ean d\u01b0\u1edbi b\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t c\u1ee7a n\u00f3, trong khi hai m\u1eabu c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i th\u00ec kh\u00f4ng.\u00a0<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng tr\u1eef l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u n\u1eb1m trong m\u1eabu \u0111\u1ea5t C l\u00e0 1\/3 hay 33%.\u00a0 <\/p>\n

Sau \u0111\u00f3 th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m khoan \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh tr\u00ean m\u1eabu \u0111\u1ea5t B v\u00e0 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 d\u1ea7u \u1edf m\u1eabu \u0111\u1ea5t n\u00e0y.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Do m\u1eabu \u0111\u1ea5t B \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf, x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t h\u1eadu nghi\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u1eabu \u0111\u1ea5t C ch\u1ee9a d\u1ea7u tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh \u00bd hay 50%.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n

(Theo Investopedia<\/i>)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t h\u1eadu nghi\u1ec7m (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Posterior Probability) theo th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a Bayes, l\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ho\u1eb7c c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 x\u1ea3y ra sau khi xem x\u00e9t th\u00f4ng tin m\u1edbi.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[414],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25310"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25310"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25310\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25310"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25310"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25310"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}