{"id":25313,"date":"2023-12-07T00:20:34","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T00:20:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/xac-suat-tien-nghiem-priori-probability-la-gi-dac-diem-va-vi-du.html"},"modified":"2023-12-22T10:24:04","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T03:24:04","slug":"xac-suat-tien-nghiem-priori-probability-la-gi-dac-diem-va-vi-du","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/xac-suat-tien-nghiem-priori-probability-la-gi-dac-diem-va-vi-du.html","title":{"rendered":"X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m (Priori Probability) l\u00e0 g\u00ec? \u0110\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0 v\u00ed d\u1ee5"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Hi\u0300nh minh ho\u0323a. Ngu\u00f4\u0300n: Hedgetrade.com<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kha\u0301i ni\u00ea\u0323m<\/b><\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m<\/b> trong ti\u00ea\u0301ng Anh la\u0300 Priori Probability.<\/b><\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m<\/b> l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 s\u1ebd xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n theo m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1eeb d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o t\u00ednh logic h\u01a1n l\u00e0 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m\u00a0<\/font><\/span><\/h3>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m<\/b> th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng trong ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u00ednh to\u00e1n x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0 do ng\u01b0\u1eddi quan s\u00e1t ph\u1ea3i s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng logic \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c m\u00e0 c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra.<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp \u1edf \u0111\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3.<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean nh\u01b0 roullette, n\u00e9m x\u00fac x\u1eafc, ch\u01a1i x\u1ed5 s\u1ed1, v.v.
<\/i><\/p>\n

H\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t n\u00e0y l\u00e0 n\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho m\u1ed9t t\u1eadp h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 h\u1eefu h\u1ea1n v\u00ec h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n.<\/p>\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m\u00a0<\/font><\/h3>\n

– V\u00ed d\u1ee5 1: <\/b>m\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5 \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh v\u1ec1 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m<\/b> l\u00e0 khi tung m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed3ng xu.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed3ng xu \u0111\u1ed3ng ch\u1ea5t c\u00f3 hai m\u1eb7t l\u00e0 m\u1eb7t s\u1ea5p v\u00e0 m\u1eb7t ng\u1eeda, m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n tung \u0111\u1ed3ng xu kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n m\u1eb7t s\u1ea5p v\u00e0 m\u1eb7t ng\u1eeda l\u00e0 b\u1eb1ng nhau b\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 n\u00e9m tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o.\u00a0<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n m\u1eb7t ng\u1eeda khi tung \u0111\u1ed3ng xu l\u00e0 50%, t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n m\u1eb7t s\u1ea5p khi tung \u0111\u1ed3ng xu c\u0169ng l\u00e0 50%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

– V\u00ed d\u1ee5 2:<\/b> v\u00ed d\u1ee5 kh\u00e1c ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn h\u01a1n l\u00e0 khi gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu thay \u0111\u1ed5i.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng, gi\u1ea3m ho\u1eb7c gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean. Do \u0111\u00f3, theo x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng\/ gi\u1ea3m \/ gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean l\u00e0 1\/3 hay 33%. Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra m\u1ed9t trong c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec1u b\u1eb1ng nhau.<\/p>\n

– V\u00ed d\u1ee5 3:<\/b>\u00a0gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty XYZ \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda \u1edf m\u1ee9c 10$ ng\u00e0y h\u00f4m qua.\u00a0<\/p>\n

D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean v\u00e0i ng\u00e0y cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed giao d\u1ecbch, c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u00f3 v\u1ebb nh\u01b0 \u0111ang c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng, v\u00ec v\u1eady c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 cho x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u0103ng l\u00e0 66% v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y mai.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, v\u1edbi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m, gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty XYZ ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra m\u1ed9t trong ba k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n sau: \u0111i l\u00ean, \u0111i xu\u1ed1ng ho\u1eb7c gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean. V\u00ec v\u1eady, ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 33% c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu s\u1ebd t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y mai. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean l\u00ed tr\u00ed do c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1edfi ng\u01b0\u1eddi quan s\u00e1t ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i t\u1eeb hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft, nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c hay d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/i><\/p>\n

(Theo Investopedia <\/i>v\u00e0 Investinganswers<\/i>)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ti\u00ean nghi\u1ec7m (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Priori Probability) l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 s\u1ebd xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n theo m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1eeb d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[414],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25313"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25313"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25313\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25313"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25313"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25313"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}