{"id":25317,"date":"2023-12-07T00:20:45","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T00:20:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/xac-suat-chu-quan-subjective-probability-la-gi-dac-diem-va-vi-du.html"},"modified":"2023-12-22T10:24:04","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T03:24:04","slug":"xac-suat-chu-quan-subjective-probability-la-gi-dac-diem-va-vi-du","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/xac-suat-chu-quan-subjective-probability-la-gi-dac-diem-va-vi-du.html","title":{"rendered":"X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u1ee7 quan (Subjective Probability) l\u00e0 g\u00ec? \u0110\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0 v\u00ed d\u1ee5"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Hi\u0300nh minh ho\u0323a. Ngu\u00f4\u0300n: Towardsdatascience.com<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u1ee7 quan<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kha\u0301i ni\u00ea\u0323m<\/b><\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u1ee7 quan<\/b> trong ti\u00ea\u0301ng Anh la\u0300 Subjective Probability.<\/b><\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u1ee7 quan<\/b> l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 kinh nghi\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n.<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u1ee7 quan kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh \u00fd ki\u1ebfn ch\u1ee7 quan v\u00e0 kinh nghi\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi quan s\u00e1t tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u1ee3ng.\u00a0 <\/i><\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u1ee7 quan kh\u00e1c nhau t\u1eeb ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00e0y sang ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c v\u00e0 c\u00f3 ch\u1ee9a th\u00e0nh ki\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi quan s\u00e1t. M\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u1ee7 quan l\u00e0 ph\u1ecfng \u0111o\u00e1n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1ebd mua m\u1ed9t c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu theo tr\u1ef1c gi\u00e1c c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu. \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u1ee7 quan ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00e1ch quan<\/i>, x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00e1ch quan s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh to\u00e1n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c quan s\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi l\u1ea1i ho\u1eb7c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thu th\u1eadp trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u1ee7 quan\u00a0<\/font><\/h3>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 l\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trong h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c d\u1ea1ng x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t, th\u00f4ng tin \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thu th\u1eadp v\u00e0 di\u1ec5n gi\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00fap x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 x\u1ea3y ra th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc, th\u01b0\u1eddng li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn to\u00e1n th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea.\u00a0<\/p>\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5 t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed3ng xu b\u1ecb l\u1eadt l\u00e0 m\u1eb7t ng\u1eeda hay m\u1eb7t s\u1ea5p l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t, x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n m\u1eb7t ng\u1eeda l\u00e0 50% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng v\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n m\u1eb7t s\u1ea5p l\u00e0 50%. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

M\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u1ee7 quan<\/b> linh ho\u1ea1t h\u01a1n, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1eb1ng ni\u1ec1m tin c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n.\u00a0<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tin r\u1eb1ng c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh x\u1ea3y ra l\u00e0 25%, trong m\u1ed9t ho\u00e0n c\u1ea3nh kh\u00e1c hay trong m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea1m vi kh\u00e1c ni\u1ec1m tin c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i, v\u00ed d\u1ee5 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn 30%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra ngay c\u1ea3 khi kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ed5 sung n\u00e0o m\u00e0 l\u00e0 do s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong c\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi quan s\u00e1t. \u00a0\u00a0<\/i><\/p>\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u1ee7 quan<\/b> c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi nhi\u1ec1u ni\u1ec1m tin kh\u00e1c nhau c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi.\u00a0 <\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng ni\u1ec1m tin n\u00e0y li\u00ean quan m\u1eadt thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 m\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00e0y g\u1eb7p ph\u1ea3i trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c m\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn trong su\u1ed1t cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1eddi h\u1ecd.\u00a0 <\/p>\n

D\u00f9 ni\u1ec1m tin c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 duy l\u00ed, n\u00f3 v\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng d\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m cho m\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh s\u1ef1 th\u1eadt m\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00f3 di\u1ec5n gi\u1ea3i th\u00f4ng tin \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y cho h\u1ecd.\u00a0<\/i><\/p>\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u1ee7 quan \u00a0\u00a0<\/font><\/h3>\n

H\u00e3y xem x\u00e9t m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c y\u00eau c\u1ea7u d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t s\u1ebd xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t khi tung m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed3ng xu, ph\u00e1n \u0111o\u00e1n ban \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a anh ta l\u00e0 50% \u0111\u00fang v\u1edbi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00e1ch quan hay v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc.\u00a0<\/p>\n

N\u1ebfu anh ta tung \u0111\u1ed3ng xu 10 l\u1ea7n v\u00e0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ec1u cho m\u1eb7t ng\u1eeda, ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n m\u1eb7t ng\u1eeda c\u1ee7a anh ta th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t con s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c l\u1edbn h\u01a1n 50%, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n l\u00e0 75%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

D\u00f9 ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00e0y bi\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u1edbi l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc, tr\u1ea3i nghi\u1ec7m c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a anh ta cho th\u1ea5y 10 l\u1ea7n tung \u0111\u1ed3ng xu tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn anh ta ch\u1ecdn s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u1ee7 quan<\/b> l\u00e0 75%. \u00a0 <\/p>\n

(Theo Investopedia<\/i>)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u1ee7 quan (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Subjective Probability) l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 kinh nghi\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[414],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25317"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25317"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25317\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25317"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25317"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25317"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}