{"id":25660,"date":"2023-12-07T01:41:58","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T01:41:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/khung-hoang-tien-te-currency-crisis-la-gi.html"},"modified":"2023-12-07T01:41:58","modified_gmt":"2023-12-07T01:41:58","slug":"khung-hoang-tien-te-currency-crisis-la-gi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/khung-hoang-tien-te-currency-crisis-la-gi.html","title":{"rendered":"Kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 (Currency Crisis) l\u00e0 g\u00ec?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"EAYh1m1UwAAT2Rt\"<\/div>\n
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H\u00ecnh minh h\u1ecda. Ngu\u1ed3n: huffpost.com<\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 (Currency Crisis)<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

Kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7<\/b> trong ti\u1ebfng Anh l\u00e0 Currency Crisis<\/b>.<\/p>\n

Kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7<\/b> l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia. S\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb n\u00e0y \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n trong t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i, ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n mua \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nhi\u1ec1u m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 kh\u00e1c so v\u1edbi tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y.<\/p>\n

Bi\u1ec3u hi\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7<\/font><\/h3>\n

M\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 si\u00eau l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf k\u00e9m ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 tri\u1ec7u ch\u1ee9ng v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 c\u0103n b\u1ec7nh c\u1ee7a t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

Khi m\u1ed9t l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng b\u00e1n b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi vay ph\u1ea3i ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c b\u00e1n danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh m\u1ea5t v\u1ed1n qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c. Vi\u1ec7c b\u00e1n nh\u01b0 v\u1eady s\u1ebd l\u00e0m t\u0103ng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c b\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7. Ch\u00ednh s\u1ef1 b\u00e1n th\u00e1o c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n

D\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7<\/font><\/h3>\n

B\u1edfi v\u00ec h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf t\u1ea1i IMF v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 d\u00e0nh nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o s\u1edbm \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00fap c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n khi kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng \u0111\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 trong vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o s\u1edbm l\u00e0 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u1ec1 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 r\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c nhau. M\u1ed9t tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1i cho r\u1eb1ng kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 x\u1ea3y ra do c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu k\u00e9m trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, trong khi tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ee9 hai cho r\u1eb1ng kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 suy y\u1ebfu.<\/p>\n

IMF \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a 10 bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 quan tr\u1ecdng trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 \u1edf 50 qu\u1ed1c gia trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 1975 – 1997. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00e1c nhau qua c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng nh\u01b0ng nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u<\/b> sau:<\/p>\n

– Trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng, t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i<\/b> th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n

– C\u00e1n c\u00e2n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i<\/b> cho th\u1ea5y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 gi\u1eefa trong th\u1eddi k\u00ec ti\u1ec1n kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng v\u00e0 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n

– D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef\u00a0<\/b>ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i<\/b>\u00a0c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh khi kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng \u0111\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n.<\/p>\n

–\u00a0\u0110i\u1ec1u kho\u1ea3n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i<\/font><\/b>\u00a0c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng ti\u1ec1n kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng.<\/p>\n

– L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t<\/b> c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong th\u1eddi k\u00ec ti\u1ec1n kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng so v\u1edbi th\u1eddi k\u00ec \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n

– T\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 M2, th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o cung ti\u1ec1n, d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng<\/b> c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 24 th\u00e1ng ti\u1ec1n kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng ngay sau kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng.<\/p>\n

– T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1ec1 cung ti\u1ec1n<\/b> (Broad money) danh ngh\u0129a v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh trong hai n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec9nh v\u00e0o kho\u1ea3ng 18 th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng x\u1ea3y ra.<\/p>\n

– T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n<\/b> danh ngh\u0129a c\u0169ng c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ti\u1ec1n kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng.<\/p>\n

– Kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 th\u01b0\u1eddng x\u1ea3y ra b\u1edfi bong b\u00f3ng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh<\/b>.<\/p>\n

– Ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf cho th\u1ea5y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1eb7c tr\u01b0ng<\/b> n\u00e0o d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng.<\/p>\n

(T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o: Gi\u00e1o tr\u00ecnh\u00a0Economics for Investment Decision Makers<\/i>, CFA Institute)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n Kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Currency Crisis) l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia l\u00e0m \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n trong t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[414],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25660"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25660"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25660\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25660"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25660"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25660"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}