{"id":25731,"date":"2023-12-07T01:44:48","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T01:44:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/li-thuyet-phan-than-reflexivity-trong-kinh-te-hoc-la-gi-cac-noi-dung-ve-li-thuyet-phan-than.html"},"modified":"2023-12-22T10:46:53","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T03:46:53","slug":"li-thuyet-phan-than-reflexivity-trong-kinh-te-hoc-la-gi-cac-noi-dung-ve-li-thuyet-phan-than","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/li-thuyet-phan-than-reflexivity-trong-kinh-te-hoc-la-gi-cac-noi-dung-ve-li-thuyet-phan-than.html","title":{"rendered":"L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ea3n th\u00e2n (Reflexivity) trong kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc l\u00e0 g\u00ec? C\u00e1c n\u1ed9i dung v\u1ec1 l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ea3n th\u00e2n"},"content":{"rendered":"
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H\u00ecnh minh h\u1ecda (Ngu\u1ed3n: annettemarkham.com)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ea3n th\u00e2n (Reflexivity)<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ea3n th\u00e2n<\/b> hay thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i trong ti\u1ebfng Anh l\u00e0 Reflexivity.<\/b><\/p>\n

L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ea3n th\u00e2n<\/i> trong kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc l\u00e0 l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft cho r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t v\u00f2ng ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i trong \u0111\u00f3 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ea3n th\u00e2n <\/i>c\u00f3 ngu\u1ed3n g\u1ed1c t\u1eeb x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i h\u1ecdc nh\u01b0ng trong th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 l\u00e0 George Soros.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Soros tin r\u1eb1ng l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ea3n th\u00e2n <\/i>l\u00e0m m\u1ea5t \u0111i ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf ch\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 s\u1ebd tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u kinh t\u1ebf, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0a ra tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 ph\u00f4 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng r\u1eb1ng n\u00f3 “l\u00e0m ph\u00e1t sinh m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea9m h\u1ea1nh m\u1edbi c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c lu\u1eadn m\u1edbi”.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c n\u1ed9i dung v\u1ec1 l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ea3n th\u00e2n<\/font><\/h3>\n

L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ea3n th\u00e2n<\/i> n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u1ec1 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf m\u00e0 thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u1ec1 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf. C\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c n\u00e0y c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, sau \u0111\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 theo \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y t\u1ef1 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 v\u00e0 c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng khi\u1ebfn cho gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u00e1ch r\u1eddi kh\u1ecfi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf. Soros xem cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t minh h\u1ecda cho l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Theo quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng, gi\u00e1 nh\u00e0 \u1edf t\u0103ng khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3n cho vay th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p nh\u00e0 \u1edf v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u00ecnh, cho vay t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 nh\u00e0 l\u00ean cao. N\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng ki\u1ec3m tra gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 t\u0103ng n\u00f3 s\u1ebd d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn\u00a0bong b\u00f3ng\u00a0gi\u00e1, sau l\u00e0 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea1i suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ea3n th\u00e2n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng kinh t\u1ebf
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L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ea3n th\u00e2n<\/i> c\u1ee7a Soros \u0111\u1ed1i ngh\u1ecbch v\u1edbi c\u00e1c kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m v\u1ec1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng kinh t\u1ebf, k\u00ec v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00ed v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3. Trong l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf ch\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng, gi\u00e1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ng\u1ee5 \u00fd b\u1edfi c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc kinh t\u1ebf c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ec1 nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc kinh t\u1ebf (ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 s\u1edf th\u00edch c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 khan hi\u1ebfm t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1) s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1ea3 gi\u00e1 cao ho\u1eb7c th\u1ea5p d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean nh\u1eefng k\u00ec v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00ed c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc kinh t\u1ebf c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n ng\u1ee5 \u00fd v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n

Qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i t\u00edch c\u1ef1c v\u00e0 ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c gi\u1eefa gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 v\u00e0 k\u00ec v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc kinh t\u1ebf c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ea7n l\u01b0u \u00fd, c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng l\u1eabn nhau \u1edf m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng m\u1edbi.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng tr\u1edf ng\u1ea1i l\u1edbn trong vi\u1ec7c truy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ea1t th\u00f4ng tin li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc kinh t\u1ebf c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 tham gia v\u00e0o c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch \u1edf m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn chung, qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh gi\u00e1 n\u00e0y s\u1ebd c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1eef cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng di chuy\u1ec3n nhanh ch\u00f3ng v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng.<\/p>\n

Soros tin r\u1eb1ng t\u00ednh ph\u1ea3n x\u1ea1 th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1ec1 tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng kinh t\u1ebf b\u1edfi v\u00ec \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111i ch\u1ec7ch kh\u1ecfi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c theo th\u1eddi gian.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Theo \u00fd ki\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a Soros, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0 do qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh gi\u00e1 l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n x\u1ea1 v\u00e0 b\u1ecb chi ph\u1ed1i b\u1edfi c\u00e1c v\u00f2ng ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i t\u00edch c\u1ef1c gi\u1eefa gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 k\u00ec v\u1ecdng. Khi m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ec1 nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc kinh t\u1ebf x\u1ea3y ra, c\u00e1c v\u00f2ng ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i t\u00edch c\u1ef1c n\u00e0y khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 b\u1ecb gi\u1ea3m ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng m\u1edbi.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Theo m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd gi\u1eefa gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 v\u00e0 k\u00ec v\u1ecdng li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc kinh t\u1ebf c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, s\u1ebd l\u00e0m \u0111\u1ed1i tr\u1ecdng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c v\u00f2ng ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i v\u00e0 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i t\u00edch c\u1ef1c n\u00e0y. Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c khi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean t\u00e1ch r\u1eddi kh\u1ecfi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1ea1i k\u00ec v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd (m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 Soros kh\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn ra \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c).<\/p>\n

B\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng cho l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, Soros ch\u1ec9 ra chu k\u00ec b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ee3t bong b\u00f3ng gi\u00e1 ti\u1ebfp theo sau s\u1ef1 c\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 khi ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta tin r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 \u0111i ch\u1ec7ch kh\u1ecfi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bao h\u00e0m b\u1edfi c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc kinh t\u1ebf c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n. \u00d4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i \u00edch t\u1eeb t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng trong vi\u1ec7c b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh v\u00e0 vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i th\u1ea3 n\u1ed5i.<\/p>\n

(T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o: investopedia.com)<\/i><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ea3n th\u00e2n (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Reflexivity) trong kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc l\u00e0 l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft cho r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t v\u00f2ng ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i trong \u0111\u00f3 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf…\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[414],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25731"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25731"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25731\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25731"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25731"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25731"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}