{"id":25746,"date":"2023-12-07T01:45:40","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T01:45:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/phuong-phap-qui-nap-nguoc-backward-induction-la-gi-vi-du-ve-phuong-phap-qui-nap-nguoc.html"},"modified":"2023-12-22T10:46:54","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T03:46:54","slug":"phuong-phap-qui-nap-nguoc-backward-induction-la-gi-vi-du-ve-phuong-phap-qui-nap-nguoc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/phuong-phap-qui-nap-nguoc-backward-induction-la-gi-vi-du-ve-phuong-phap-qui-nap-nguoc.html","title":{"rendered":"Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p qui n\u1ea1p ng\u01b0\u1ee3c (Backward Induction) l\u00e0 g\u00ec? V\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p qui n\u1ea1p ng\u01b0\u1ee3c"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"vnbcbc-body vceditor-content wi-active\" data-role=\"content\">\n<div class=\"VCSortableInPreviewMode\" type=\"Photo\" style=\"\">\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"PhotoCMS_Caption\">\n<p>H\u00ecnh minh h\u1ecda (Ngu\u1ed3n: i.ytimg.com)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2><font style=\"line-height: 22px; font-size: 22px;\" color=\"#3d85c6\">Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p qui n\u1ea1p ng\u01b0\u1ee3c (Backward Induction)<\/font><\/h2>\n<p><b>Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p qui n\u1ea1p ng\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/b> trong ti\u1ebfng Anh l\u00e0<b> Backward Induction.<\/b><\/p>\n<p><i>Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p qui n\u1ea1p ng\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/i> trong l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh l\u1eb7p \u0111i l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a l\u00ed lu\u1eadn ng\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1eddi gian t\u1eeb khi k\u1ebft th\u00fac m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 ho\u1eb7c t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft c\u00e1c khu\u00f4n m\u1eabu ph\u1ed5 th\u00f4ng h\u1eefu h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i tu\u1ea7n t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t chu\u1ed7i c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1i \u01b0u.<\/p>\n<p><b>Ngu\u1ed3n g\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p qui n\u1ea1p ng\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/b><\/p>\n<p><i>Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p qui n\u1ea1p ng\u01b0\u1ee3c <\/i>t\u1eebng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft c\u00e1c tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi John von Neumann v\u00e0 Oskar Morgenstern thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 h\u1ecdc thu\u1eadt khi h\u1ecd xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch &#8220;L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft v\u1ec1 tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i v\u00e0 h\u00e0nh vi kinh t\u1ebf&#8221; n\u0103m 1944.<\/p>\n<p>\u1ede m\u1ed7i giai \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i, <i>ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p qui n\u1ea1p ng\u01b0\u1ee3c <\/i>quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed1i \u01b0u c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01a1i th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n b\u01b0\u1edbc cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng trong tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i. Sau \u0111\u00f3, h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1i \u01b0u c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01a1i ti\u1ebfp theo \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh, th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01a1i cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra.<\/p>\n<p>Qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda sau cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t cho m\u1ecdi th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh. Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng Nash c\u1ee7a m\u1ed7i tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i con trong tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i g\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n<p>Tuy nhi\u00ean, k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 suy ra t\u1eeb <i>ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p qui n\u1ea1p ng\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/i> th\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ed1i ch\u01a1i th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a con ng\u01b0\u1eddi. C\u00e1c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u th\u1ef1c nghi\u1ec7m \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng h\u00e0nh vi &#8220;h\u1ee3p l\u00ed&#8221; (theo d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i) hi\u1ebfm khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n trong cu\u1ed9c s\u1ed1ng th\u1ef1c. Ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01a1i phi l\u00ed th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u1ebft th\u00fac vi\u1ec7c nh\u1eadn th\u01b0\u1edfng ph\u1ea1t cao h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a <i>ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p qui n\u1ea1p ng\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/i>, nh\u01b0 minh h\u1ecda trong Tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i con r\u1ebft.<\/p>\n<h3><font style=\"line-height: 22px; font-size: 22px;\" color=\"#3d85c6\">V\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p qui n\u1ea1p ng\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/font><\/h3>\n<p>V\u00ed d\u1ee5, gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01a1i A \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh xem anh ta c\u00f3 n\u00ean &#8220;l\u1ea5y&#8221; hay &#8220;b\u1ecf qua&#8221; th\u1ee9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea5t gi\u1ea5u, s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 2 \u0111\u00f4 la. N\u1ebfu anh ta l\u1ea5y, th\u00ec A v\u00e0 B nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 1 \u0111\u00f4 la cho m\u1ed7i ng\u01b0\u1eddi, nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu A b\u1ecf qua, quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1ea5y hay b\u1ecf qua b\u00e2y gi\u1edd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a ra b\u1edfi ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01a1i B.<\/p>\n<p>N\u1ebfu B l\u1ea5y, c\u00f4 \u1ea5y nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 3 \u0111\u00f4 la (ngh\u0129a l\u00e0, tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 2 \u0111\u00f4 la + 1 \u0111\u00f4 la) v\u00e0 A \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 0 \u0111\u00f4 la. Nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu B b\u1ecf qua, A s\u1ebd quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1ea5y hay b\u1ecf qua, v\u00e0 c\u1ee9 th\u1ebf. N\u1ebfu c\u1ea3 hai ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01a1i lu\u00f4n ch\u1ecdn b\u1ecf qua th\u00ec m\u1ed7i ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ebd nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n th\u01b0\u1edfng l\u00e0 100 \u0111\u00f4 la v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i.<\/p>\n<p>\u0110i\u1ec3m hay c\u1ee7a tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu c\u1ea3 A v\u00e0 B c\u00f9ng h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c b\u1ecf qua cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi k\u1ebft th\u00fac tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i th\u00ec h\u1ecd s\u1ebd nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kho\u1ea3n ti\u1ec1n th\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1ed1i \u0111a 100 \u0111\u00f4 la m\u1ed7i ng\u01b0\u1eddi. Nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng tin t\u01b0\u1edfng nhau v\u00e0 mong h\u1ecd ch\u1ecdn &#8220;l\u1ea5y&#8221; ngay t\u1ea1i c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean th\u00ec tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng Nash d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01a1i s\u1ebd nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00f3n ti\u1ec1n th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 (1 \u0111\u00f4 la trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y).<\/p>\n<p>\u0110i\u1ec3m c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng Nash trong tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i n\u00e0y l\u00e0 n\u01a1i kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01a1i n\u00e0o c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 \u0111i ch\u1ec7ch kh\u1ecfi chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ecdn c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh sau khi xem x\u00e9t l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7, cho th\u1ea5y ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01a1i \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean s\u1ebd tham gia v\u00e0o v\u00f2ng \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u1ee7a tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i. Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i \u00edt ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01a1i l\u00e0m nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0, h\u1ecd nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n cao h\u01a1n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n theo ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng.<\/p>\n<p><i>(T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o: investopedia.com)<\/i><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"vnbcbc-sapo\" data-role=\"sapo\">\n                            Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p qui n\u1ea1p ng\u01b0\u1ee3c (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Backward Induction) trong l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh l\u1eb7p \u0111i l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a l\u00ed lu\u1eadn ng\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1eddi gian t\u1eeb khi k\u1ebft th\u00fac m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 ho\u1eb7c t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng&#8230;\n                        <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[414],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25746"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25746"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25746\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25746"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25746"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25746"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}