{"id":25866,"date":"2023-12-07T02:13:28","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T02:13:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/hieu-chinh-yeu-to-mua-vu-seasonal-adjustment-voi-so-lieu-kinh-te-la-gi.html"},"modified":"2023-12-22T11:22:10","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T04:22:10","slug":"hieu-chinh-yeu-to-mua-vu-seasonal-adjustment-voi-so-lieu-kinh-te-la-gi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/hieu-chinh-yeu-to-mua-vu-seasonal-adjustment-voi-so-lieu-kinh-te-la-gi.html","title":{"rendered":"Hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 (Seasonal Adjustment) v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 g\u00ec?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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H\u00ecnh minh h\u1ecda<\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

Hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 <\/b>trong ti\u1ebfng Anh l\u00e0\u00a0Seasonal Adjustment.<\/b><\/p>\n

Hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5<\/i> l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t k\u0129 thu\u1eadt th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec3 “san b\u1eb1ng” c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng trong s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u ho\u1eb7c chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u x\u1ea3y ra do y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5. Do \u0111\u00f3, k\u0129 thu\u1eadt n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 theo m\u00f9a d\u1ec5 g\u00e2y nh\u1ea7m l\u1eabn khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian trong kinh t\u1ebf.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 <\/i>l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p l\u00e0m tr\u01a1n d\u1eef li\u1ec7u (data smoothing) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 kinh t\u1ebf ho\u1eb7c doanh s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty trong m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi k\u00ec nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n

Hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 <\/i>gi\u00fap nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00f3 c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng kh\u00f4ng mang t\u00ednh th\u1eddi v\u1ee5 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u theo chu k\u00ec kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn bi\u1ebft do s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t theo m\u00f9a; qua \u0111\u00f3 gi\u00fap c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 h\u01a1n c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng g\u1ed1c, c\u01a1 s\u1edf trong m\u1ed9t chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quan s\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5, C\u1ee5c Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea Lao \u0111\u1ed9ng M\u1ef9 (BLS) hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5<\/i> \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn t\u1ed5ng qu\u00e1t ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m v\u00e0 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9. BLS th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n theo m\u00f9a, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 ng\u00e0y l\u1ec5, s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft, l\u1ecbch h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed l\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian thu ho\u1ea1ch m\u00f9a m\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n

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C\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n theo m\u00f9a mang t\u00ednh t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi, x\u1ea3y ra v\u00e0o \u0111\u00fang m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian trong n\u0103m, k\u00e9o d\u00e0i trong m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u00e3 bi\u1ebft v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1eddng x\u1ea3y ra theo m\u1ed9t chi\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1ec5 \u0111o\u00e1n. Do \u0111\u00f3, vi\u1ec7c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf theo m\u00f9a\u00a0c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng trong th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng quan s\u00e1t c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, chu k\u00ec c\u0103n b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng mang t\u00ednh m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ec3 r\u00fat ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u00e0 h\u1eefu \u00edch v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 th\u00f3i quen mua h\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n

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C\u00e1c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng theo m\u00f9a \u1edf nh\u1eefng n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5<\/font><\/h3>\n

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Doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n gi\u00e0y ch\u1ea1y b\u1ed9 trong m\u00f9a h\u00e8 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n h\u1eb3n doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n ra trong m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng. S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t n\u00e0y x\u1ea3y ra do y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5: c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ea1y b\u1ed9 ho\u1eb7c tham gia v\u00e0o c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng ngo\u00e0i tr\u1eddi kh\u00e1c c\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e0y ch\u1ea1y b\u1ed9 v\u00e0o m\u00f9a h\u00e8 h\u01a1n l\u00e0 m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n gi\u00e0y theo m\u00f9a c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 che khu\u1ea5t xu h\u01b0\u1edbng chung th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n gi\u00e0y th\u1ec3 thao trong to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian. Do \u0111\u00f3, m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5<\/i> c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng chung trong doanh s\u1ed1.<\/p>\n

Hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng<\/font><\/h4>\n

Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng\u00a0M\u1ef9 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u1ea7n m\u1ec1m hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 X-13ARIMA-SEATS \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 mang t\u00ednh m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1, th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3 u\u1ed1ng, ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec7n \u00edch kh\u00e1c.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng theo m\u00f9a c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng chu\u1ed7i d\u1eef li\u1ec7u m\u1ed7i n\u0103m b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 m\u1edbi trong m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng 1 v\u00e0 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng ch\u00fang cho 5 n\u0103m cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng c\u1ee7a chu\u1ed7i d\u1eef li\u1ec7u.\u00a0C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u0169 h\u01a1n 5 n\u0103m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 con s\u1ed1 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng v\u00e0 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh.<\/p>\n

(Theo investopedia<\/i>)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n Hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Seasonal Adjustment) l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t k\u0129 thu\u1eadt th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 mang t\u00ednh m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 d\u1ec5 g\u00e2y nh\u1ea7m l\u1eabn khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian trong kinh t\u1ebf.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[414],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25866"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25866"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25866\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25866"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25866"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25866"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}