{"id":26143,"date":"2023-12-07T02:24:48","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T02:24:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/phuong-phap-phan-tich-do-nhay-sensitivity-analysis-trong-tham-dinh-du-an-la-gi.html"},"modified":"2023-12-22T11:29:15","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T04:29:15","slug":"phuong-phap-phan-tich-do-nhay-sensitivity-analysis-trong-tham-dinh-du-an-la-gi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/phuong-phap-phan-tich-do-nhay-sensitivity-analysis-trong-tham-dinh-du-an-la-gi.html","title":{"rendered":"Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y (Sensitivity analysis) trong th\u1ea9m \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1 \u00e1n l\u00e0 g\u00ec?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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H\u00ecnh minh ho\u1ea1 (Ngu\u1ed3n: news)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Phu\u031bo\u031bng pha\u0301p pha\u0302n ti\u0301ch \u0111\u1ecd\u0302 nha\u0323y trong th\u1ea9m \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1 \u00e1n<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

Phu\u031bo\u031bng pha\u0301p pha\u0302n ti\u0301ch \u0111\u1ecd\u0302 nha\u0323y<\/b> trong ti\u1ebfng Anh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 Sensitivity analysis.<\/b><\/p>\n

Khi th\u01b0\u0323c hi\u1eb9\u0302n th\u00e2\u0309m \u0111i\u0323nh d\u01b0\u0323 a\u0301n co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 s\u01b0\u0309 du\u0323ng r\u00e2\u0301t nhi\u00ea\u0300u ca\u0301c phu\u031bo\u031bng pha\u0301p va\u0300 k\u0129 thu\u1ea1\u0302t th\u00e2\u0309m \u0111i\u0323nh d\u01b0\u0323 a\u0301n kha\u0301c nhau.<\/p>\n

Phu\u031bo\u031bng pha\u0301p pha\u0302n ti\u0301ch \u0111\u1ecd\u0302 nha\u0323y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng phu\u031bo\u031bng pha\u0301p th\u00e2\u0309m \u0111i\u0323nh \u0111u\u031b\u01a1\u0323c s\u01b0\u0309 du\u0323ng ph\u00f4\u0309 bi\u00ea\u0301n \u0111\u00ea\u0309 th\u00e2\u0309m \u0111i\u0323nh d\u01b0\u0323 a\u0301n.<\/p>\n

Phu\u031bo\u031bng pha\u0301p pha\u0302n ti\u0301ch \u0111\u1ecd\u0302 nha\u0323y<\/b> la\u0300 vi\u1eb9\u0302c xem xe\u0301t s\u01b0\u0323 thay \u0111\u00f4\u0309i cu\u0309a ca\u0301c chi\u0309 tie\u0302u hi\u1eb9\u0302u qua\u0309 ta\u0300i chi\u0301nh khi ca\u0301c y\u00ea\u0301u t\u00f4\u0301 co\u0301 lie\u0302n quan \u0111\u00ea\u0301n chi\u0309 tie\u0302u \u0111o\u0301 thay \u0111\u00f4\u0309i.<\/p>\n

Th\u00e2\u0309m \u0111i\u0323nh d\u01b0\u0323 a\u0301n \u0111\u00e2\u0300u tu\u031b<\/b>\u00a0la\u0300 vi\u1eb9\u0302c t\u00f4\u0309 ch\u01b0\u0301c xem xe\u0301t \u0111a\u0301nh gia\u0301 m\u1ecd\u0302t ca\u0301ch kha\u0301ch quan, khoa ho\u0323c va\u0300 toa\u0300n di\u1eb9\u0302n ca\u0301c n\u1ecd\u0302i dung co\u031b ba\u0309n co\u0301 a\u0309nh hu\u031b\u01a1\u0309ng tr\u01b0\u0323c ti\u00ea\u0301p \u0111\u00ea\u0301n kha\u0309 na\u0306ng th\u01b0\u0323c hi\u1eb9\u0302n va\u0300 hi\u1eb9\u0302u qua\u0309 cu\u0309a d\u01b0\u0323 a\u0301n \u0111\u00ea\u0309 t\u01b0\u0300 \u0111o\u0301 ra quy\u00ea\u0301t \u0111i\u0323nh \u0111\u00e2\u0300u tu\u031b, cho phe\u0301p \u0111\u00e2\u0300u tu\u031b ho\u1ea1\u0306c ta\u0300i tr\u01a1\u0323 v\u00f4\u0301n cho d\u01b0\u0323 a\u0301n.<\/p>\n

Theo Lu\u1ea1\u0302t \u0111\u00e2\u0300u tu\u031b na\u0306m 2014:\u00a0<\/b>D\u01b0\u0323 a\u0301n \u0111\u00e2\u0300u tu\u031b la\u0300 t\u1ea1\u0302p h\u01a1\u0323p ca\u0301c \u0111\u00ea\u0300 xu\u00e2\u0301t bo\u0309 v\u00f4\u0301n trung va\u0300 da\u0300i ha\u0323n \u0111\u00ea\u0309 ti\u00ea\u0301n ha\u0300nh ca\u0301c hoa\u0323t \u0111\u1ecd\u0302ng \u0111\u00e2\u0300u tu\u031b tre\u0302n \u0111i\u0323a ba\u0300n cu\u0323 th\u00ea\u0309, trong khoa\u0309ng th\u01a1\u0300i gian xa\u0301c \u0111i\u0323nh.<\/p>\n

Qui tri\u0300nh th\u01b0\u0323c hi\u1eb9\u0302n<\/font><\/h3>\n

Qui tr\u00ecnh th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y g\u1ed3m ba b\u01b0\u1edbc sau:<\/p>\n

Bu\u031b\u01a1\u0301c 1: <\/b>Xa\u0301c \u0111i\u0323nh ca\u0301c y\u00ea\u0301u t\u00f4\u0301 co\u0301 a\u0309nh hu\u031b\u01a1\u0309ng l\u01a1\u0301n \u0111\u00ea\u0301n chi\u0309 tie\u0302u hi\u1eb9\u0302u qua\u0309 xem xe\u0301t<\/p>\n

Bu\u031b\u01a1\u0301c 2:<\/b> Cho ca\u0301c y\u00ea\u0301u t\u00f4\u0301 \u0111o\u0301 thay \u0111\u00f4\u0309i (ta\u0306ng ho\u1ea1\u0306c gia\u0309m) theo m\u1ecd\u0302t t\u1ec9 l\u1eb9\u0302 nh\u00e2\u0301t \u0111i\u0323nh (tho\u0302ng thu\u031b\u01a1\u0300ng la\u0300 5%,10% ho\u1ea1\u0306c 15%)<\/p>\n

Bu\u031b\u01a1\u0301c 3: <\/b>Ti\u0301nh la\u0323i ca\u0301c chi\u0309 tie\u0302u hi\u1eb9\u0302u qua\u0309 va\u0300 \u0111u\u031ba ra k\u00ea\u0301t lu\u1ea1\u0302n<\/p>\n

N\u00ea\u0301u co\u0301 nhi\u00ea\u0300u y\u00ea\u0301u t\u00f4\u0301 b\u00e2\u0301t l\u01a1\u0323i xa\u0309y ra \u0111\u00f4\u0301i v\u01a1\u0301i d\u01b0\u0323 a\u0301n (nhu\u031b vu\u031b\u01a1\u0323t t\u00f4\u0309ng m\u01b0\u0301c v\u00f4\u0301n \u0111\u00e2\u0300u tu\u031b, co\u0302ng su\u00e2\u0301t gia\u0309m, gia\u0301 \u0111\u00e2\u0300u va\u0300o ta\u0306ng, gia\u0301 tie\u0302u thu\u0323 sa\u0309n ph\u00e2\u0309m gia\u0309m…) ma\u0300 d\u01b0\u0323 a\u0301n v\u00e2\u0303n \u0111a\u0323t \u0111u\u031b\u01a1\u0323c hi\u1eb9\u0302u qua\u0309 thi\u0300 d\u01b0\u0323 a\u0301n \u0111o\u0301 \u0111u\u031b\u01a1\u0323c coi la\u0300 \u0111a\u0323t hi\u1eb9\u0302u qua\u0309 v\u01b0\u0303ng ch\u0103\u0301c v\u00ea\u0300 m\u1ea1\u0306t ta\u0300i chi\u0301nh.<\/p>\n

\u01afu nh\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0 \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng<\/font><\/h3>\n

– U\u031bu \u0111i\u00ea\u0309m<\/b><\/p>\n

Giu\u0301p bi\u00ea\u0301t \u0111u\u031b\u01a1\u0323c d\u01b0\u0323 a\u0301n nha\u0323y ca\u0309m v\u01a1\u0301i y\u00ea\u0301u t\u00f4\u0301 na\u0300o \u0111\u00ea\u0309 t\u01b0\u0300 \u0111o\u0301 co\u0301 bi\u1eb9\u0302n pha\u0301p qua\u0309n l\u00ed phu\u0300 h\u01a1\u0323p, ha\u0323n ch\u00ea\u0301 ru\u0309i ro trong qua\u0301 tri\u0300nh th\u01b0\u0323c hi\u1eb9\u0302n d\u01b0\u0323 a\u0301n<\/p>\n

Giu\u0301p l\u01b0\u0323a cho\u0323n \u0111u\u031b\u01a1\u0323c nh\u01b0\u0303ng d\u01b0\u0323 a\u0301n co\u0301 \u0111\u1ecd\u0302 an toa\u0300n cao<\/p>\n

Giu\u0301p \u0111a\u0301nh gia\u0301 ru\u0309i ro ta\u0300i chi\u0301nh d\u01b0\u0323 a\u0301n<\/p>\n

– Nhu\u031b\u01a1\u0323c \u0111i\u00ea\u0309m<\/b><\/p>\n

Chi\u0309 xem xe\u0301t s\u01b0\u0323 thay \u0111\u00f4\u0309i cu\u0309a t\u01b0\u0300ng y\u00ea\u0301u t\u00f4\u0301 trong khi k\u00ea\u0301t qua\u0309 la\u0323i chi\u0323u ta\u0301c \u0111\u1ecd\u0302ng cu\u0309a nhi\u00ea\u0300u y\u00ea\u0301u t\u00f4\u0301 cu\u0300ng m\u1ecd\u0302t lu\u0301c<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u00ea\u0309m b\u0103\u0301t \u0111\u00e2\u0300u cu\u0309a pha\u0302n ti\u0301ch \u0111\u1ecd\u0302 nha\u0323y la\u0300 ca\u0301c gia\u0309 \u0111i\u0323nh<\/p>\n

-\uf0b7\u01af\u0301ng du\u0323ng<\/b><\/p>\n

\u0110u\u031b\u01a1\u0323c s\u01b0\u0309 du\u0323ng \u0111\u00ea\u0309 \u0111a\u0301nh gia\u0301 ru\u0309i ro cu\u0309a ca\u0301c chi\u0309 tie\u0302u hi\u1eb9\u0302u qua\u0309 ta\u0300i chi\u0301nh cu\u0309a d\u01b0\u0323 a\u0301n.<\/p>\n

(T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o: C\u00f4ng t\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c v\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ea9m \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1 \u00e1n, Trung t\u00e2m \u0111\u00e0o t\u1ea1o t\u1eeb xa, \u0110H Kinh t\u1ebf Qu\u1ed1c d\u00e2n)\u00a0<\/i><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Sensitivity analysis) l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c xem x\u00e9t s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh khi c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau \u0111\u00f3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[414],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26143"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26143"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26143\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26143"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26143"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26143"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}