{"id":26272,"date":"2023-12-07T02:29:55","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T02:29:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/gdp-tiem-nang-potential-gdp-la-gi-ung-dung-trong-dau-tu-tai-chinh.html"},"modified":"2023-12-22T14:54:17","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T07:54:17","slug":"gdp-tiem-nang-potential-gdp-la-gi-ung-dung-trong-dau-tu-tai-chinh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/gdp-tiem-nang-potential-gdp-la-gi-ung-dung-trong-dau-tu-tai-chinh.html","title":{"rendered":"GDP ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng (Potential GDP) l\u00e0 g\u00ec? \u1ee8ng d\u1ee5ng trong \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh"},"content":{"rendered":"
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H\u00ecnh minh h\u1ecda.Ngu\u1ed3n: http:\/\/analystnotes.com<\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

GDP ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng (Potential GDP)<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

GDP ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng<\/b> trong ti\u1ebfng Anh l\u00e0 Potential GDP<\/b>.<\/p>\n

GDP ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng<\/b> l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, m\u1ee9c GDP th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra khi\u00a0to\u00e0n d\u1ee5ng nh\u00e2n c\u00f4ng<\/font>.<\/p>\n

\u1ee8ng d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee7a GDP ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng trong ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu<\/font><\/h3>\n

GDP ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ed1i \u0111a m\u00e0 m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng g\u00e2y ra s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. Do \u0111\u00f3, m\u1ed9t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu l\u00e0 li\u1ec7u t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng thu nh\u1eadp c\u0169ng b\u1ecb gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n b\u1edfi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng hay kh\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng thu nh\u1eadp v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP, t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p tr\u00ean GDP ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng theo th\u1eddi gian. Tuy nhi\u00ean, t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng m\u00e3i m\u00e3i.<\/p>\n

T\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m, s\u1ef1 tr\u00ec tr\u1ec7 trong thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi lao \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ebd l\u00e0m cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi lao \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c v\u00e0 c\u0169ng s\u1ebd l\u00e0m nhu c\u1ea7u suy y\u1ebfu v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn kh\u00f4ng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng. Do \u0111\u00f3, v\u1ec1 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng.<\/p>\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5<\/b><\/i><\/p>\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5 1<\/i>: H\u00ecnh d\u01b0\u1edbi minh h\u1ecda s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a t\u1ec9 tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn sau thu\u1ebf trong GDP c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 (Ngu\u1ed3n: NIPA<\/i>).<\/p>\n

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Ngu\u1ed3n: FRED database, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 cho th\u1ea5y k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1947, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn sau thu\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 dao \u0111\u1ed9ng trong kho\u1ea3ng 3,1% \u0111\u1ebfn 10,1% GDP v\u00e0 trung b\u00ecnh kho\u1ea3ng 6% GDP.<\/p>\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5 2:<\/i> \u0110\u1ec3 xem x\u00e9t m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu, ta x\u00e9t t\u1ed5ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

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Trong \u0111\u00f3: P l\u00e0 t\u1ed5ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb, E l\u00e0 t\u1ed5ng thu nh\u1eadp.<\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

D\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 b\u1ea3ng ph\u00e2n b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a S&P 500 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 1946\u20132007<\/p>\n

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B\u1ea3ng ph\u00e2n b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a S&P 500 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 1946\u20132007. Ngu\u1ed3n: Stewart, Piros, and Heisler (2011)<\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 1946\u20132007, l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S&P 500 l\u00e0 10,82%\/n\u0103m, trong \u0111\u00f3 7,15% \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1. M\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c b\u1eb1ng t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 6,95% c\u1ee7a GDP danh ngh\u0129a c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 (t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ed9ng v\u1edbi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t).\u00a0Nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 thu nh\u1eadp tr\u00ean GDP v\u00e0 t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 tr\u00ean thu nh\u1eadp ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p 0,20%\/n\u0103m.<\/p>\n

\u1ee8ng d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee7a GDP ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u00e0o ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh<\/font><\/h3>\n

C\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh GDP ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, c\u1ea3 OECD v\u00e0 Qu\u0129 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (IMF) \u0111\u1ec1u cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0m c\u01a1 s\u1edf cho c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o trung h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u1ec1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c gia. Ngo\u00e0i ra, c\u00e1c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean \u0111\u01b0a ra d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 GDP ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng.\u00a0Vi\u1ec7c \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf\u00a0 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng sau:<\/span><\/p>\n

– T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng cao h\u01a1n s\u1ebd c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng<\/b> c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh. V\u00ec h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o b\u1edfi d\u00f2ng thu nh\u1eadp k\u1ec3 c\u1ea3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi cho vay kh\u00f4ng y\u00eau c\u1ea7u t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o.<\/p>\n

– C\u00e1c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng th\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7<\/b> c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch tham kh\u1ea3o m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi s\u1ef1 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u1eefa \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 (g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng) v\u00e0 b\u1edfi s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a GDP th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf so v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng.<\/p>\n

Do v\u1eady, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ea7n theo d\u00f5i ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a GDP th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/p>\n

– C\u00e1c c\u01a1 quan x\u1ebfp h\u1ea1ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng l\u00e0m \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o trong vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng<\/b> c\u1ee7a n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng. T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh ch\u1eadm h\u01a1n l\u00e0m t\u0103ng r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

– Th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7<\/b> th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng trong th\u1eddi k\u00ec suy tho\u00e1i v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m trong th\u1eddi gian ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n. Khi xem x\u00e9t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a, c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch s\u1ebd t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i n\u1ebfu n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u1edf m\u1ee9c GDP ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng.<\/p>\n

(T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o: Gi\u00e1o tr\u00ecnh Economics for Investment Decision Makers<\/i>, CFA Institute)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n GDP ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Potential GDP) l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, m\u1ee9c GDP th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra khi to\u00e0n d\u1ee5ng nh\u00e2n c\u00f4ng.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[414],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26272"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26272"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26272\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26272"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26272"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26272"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}