{"id":26552,"date":"2023-12-07T02:40:17","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T02:40:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/gia-thuyet-thi-truong-thich-ung-adaptive-market-hypothesis-la-gi.html"},"modified":"2023-12-22T14:38:37","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T07:38:37","slug":"gia-thuyet-thi-truong-thich-ung-adaptive-market-hypothesis-la-gi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/gia-thuyet-thi-truong-thich-ung-adaptive-market-hypothesis-la-gi.html","title":{"rendered":"Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00edch \u1ee9ng (Adaptive Market Hypothesis) l\u00e0 g\u00ec?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"vnbcbc-body vceditor-content wi-active\" data-role=\"content\">\n<div class=\"VCSortableInPreviewMode\" type=\"Photo\" style=\"\">\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"PhotoCMS_Caption\">\n<p><i>H\u00ecnh minh h\u1ecda<\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"\"><font style=\"line-height: 22px; font-size: 22px;\" color=\"#3d85c6\">Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00edch \u1ee9ng<\/font><\/h2>\n<p class=\"\"><b>Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"\"><b>Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00edch \u1ee9ng<\/b> trong ti\u1ebfng Anh l\u00e0\u00a0<b>Adaptive Market Hypothesis<\/b>, vi\u1ebft t\u1eaft l\u00e0 <b>AMH<\/b>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\"><i>Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00edch \u1ee9ng<\/i> l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u1ee7a gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng v\u1edbi t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh h\u00e0nh vi. Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2004 b\u1edfi gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 Andrew Lo c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7n C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 Massachusetts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\"><i>Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00edch \u1ee9n<\/i>g c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 lu\u00f4n l\u00ed tr\u00ed, v\u1edbi l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc h\u00e0nh vi r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng l\u00ed tr\u00ed v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">Trong nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m, l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 gi\u1eef th\u1ebf th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb. N\u00f3 n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1edfi v\u00ec c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty lu\u00f4n giao d\u1ecbch v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb h\u1ee3p l\u00ed, khi\u1ebfn kh\u00f4ng ai c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p ho\u1eb7c b\u00e1n ch\u00fang v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 qu\u00e1 cao.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh h\u00e0nh vi xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n sau \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y, ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00ed tr\u00ed v\u00e0 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng giao d\u1ecbch v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb h\u1ee3p l\u00ed c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang trong\u00a0bong b\u00f3ng\u00a0t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0 kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u00e2m l\u00ed h\u1ecdc.<\/p>\n<p style=\"display: none;\" class=\"\">\n<p class=\"\"><i>Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00edch \u1ee9ng<\/i> coi c\u1ea3 hai quan \u0111i\u1ec3m m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn n\u00e0y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 h\u00e0nh vi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, cho r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 h\u1ee3p l\u00ed v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t h\u1ee3p l\u00ed c\u00f9ng t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i, \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc ti\u1ebfn h\u00f3a v\u00e0 h\u00e0nh vi v\u00e0o c\u00e1c t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"\"><font style=\"line-height: 22px; font-size: 22px;\" color=\"#3d85c6\">C\u00e1ch ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00edch \u1ee9ng<\/font><\/h3>\n<p class=\"\">Lo, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec1u xu\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft tr\u00ean, tin r\u1eb1ng m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 l\u00ed tr\u00ed, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00f4i khi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean phi l\u00ed tr\u00ed \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, m\u1edf ra c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i mua v\u00e0o ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">\u00d4ng cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nh\u01b0 \u00e1c c\u1ea3m m\u1ea5t m\u00e1t, qu\u00e1 t\u1ef1 tin v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng th\u00e1i qu\u00e1 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ti\u1ebfn h\u00f3a c\u1ee7a h\u00e0nh vi con ng\u01b0\u1eddi, bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 c\u1ea1nh tranh, th\u00edch \u1ee9ng v\u00e0 ch\u1ecdn l\u1ecdc t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">Ngo\u00e0i ra, m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ecdc h\u1ecfi t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng sai l\u1ea7m c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0a ra d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u1ec1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean kinh nghi\u1ec7m trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9. L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a Lo n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng con ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0a ra d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m v\u00e0 sai s\u00f3t.<\/p>\n<p style=\"display: none;\" class=\"\">\n<p class=\"\">\u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i, anh ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn kh\u00e1c v\u00e0o l\u1ea7n t\u1edbi. N\u1ebfu chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ch\u00fang.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00edch \u1ee9ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean l\u00ed c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n sau:<\/p>\n<p style=\"display: none;\" class=\"\">\n<p class=\"\">1. M\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi l\u1ee3i \u00edch ri\u00eang c\u1ee7a b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">2. H\u1ecd m\u1eafc ph\u1ea3i nh\u1eefng sai l\u1ea7m m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">3. H\u1ecd th\u00edch nghi v\u00e0 h\u1ecdc h\u1ecfi t\u1eeb sai l\u1ea7m<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"\"><font style=\"line-height: 22px; font-size: 22px;\" color=\"#3d85c6\">V\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00edch \u1ee9ng<\/font><\/h3>\n<p class=\"\">M\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 mua ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n l\u00fac bong b\u00f3ng trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh l\u00ean t\u1edbi \u0111\u1ec9nh v\u00ec anh ta m\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n k\u0129 n\u0103ng qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 trong m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u00e1 l\u00ean.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">Lo m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 &#8220;h\u00e0nh vi th\u00edch \u1ee9ng k\u00e9m&#8221;, l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng l\u00ed do \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 v\u1ebb h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn, ngay c\u1ea3 khi \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">(Theo<i> investopedia)<\/i><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"vnbcbc-sapo\" data-role=\"sapo\">\n                            Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00edch \u1ee9ng (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Adaptive Market Hypothesis, vi\u1ebft t\u1eaft: AMH) cho r\u1eb1ng nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng theo l\u00ed tr\u00ed nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean phi l\u00ed tr\u00ed trong nh\u1eefng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh.\n                        <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[414],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26552"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26552"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26552\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26552"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26552"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26552"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}