{"id":26675,"date":"2023-12-07T03:02:25","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T03:02:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/li-thuyet-trien-vong-prospect-theory-la-gi-vi-du-ve-li-thuyet-trien-vong-trong-dau-tu.html"},"modified":"2023-12-22T14:35:26","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T07:35:26","slug":"li-thuyet-trien-vong-prospect-theory-la-gi-vi-du-ve-li-thuyet-trien-vong-trong-dau-tu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/li-thuyet-trien-vong-prospect-theory-la-gi-vi-du-ve-li-thuyet-trien-vong-trong-dau-tu.html","title":{"rendered":"L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng (Prospect Theory) l\u00e0 g\u00ec? V\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng trong \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0"},"content":{"rendered":"
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L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng<\/b> trong ti\u1ebfng Anh l\u00e0\u00a0Prospect Theory<\/b> hay c\u00f2n g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 Loss-aversion Theory.
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L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng<\/i> gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 kh\u00e1c nhau, v\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean nh\u1eefng g\u00ec h\u1ecd nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1ec1 l\u1ee3i \u00edch thay vi t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n

N\u1ed9i dung ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n \u0111\u1ee9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc hai l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn b\u1eb1ng nhau, th\u00ec h\u1ecd s\u1ebd ch\u1ecdn ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y v\u1ec1 l\u1ee3i \u00edch ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng thay cho l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y theo h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra.<\/p>\n

L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng<\/i> thu\u1ed9c v\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf h\u00e0nh vi, m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 c\u00e1ch c\u00e1c c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n \u0111\u01b0a ra l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 r\u1ee7i ro li\u00ean quan v\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 kh\u00e1c nhau ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ebft. L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1979 v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n th\u00eam v\u00e0o b\u1edfi Amos Tversky v\u00e0 Daniel Kahneman, cho r\u1eb1ng n\u00f3 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t t\u00e2m l\u00ed v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh so v\u1edbi l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ecfa d\u1ee5ng k\u00ec v\u1ecdng.<\/p>\n

Theo l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng<\/i>, nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n cho l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn c\u1ee7a m\u1ed7i c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n l\u00e0 nh\u01b0 sau: do c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp v\u00e0 \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb, n\u00ean x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i \u00edch ho\u1eb7c m\u1ea5t m\u00e1t h\u1ee3p l\u00ed l\u00e0 50\/50. Tuy nhi\u00ean, m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u01b0\u1eddng coi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cho vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i \u00edch l\u00e0 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

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Tversky v\u00e0 Kahneman \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ea3m x\u00fac g\u00e2y ra b\u1edfi t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t l\u1edbn h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn c\u1ea3m x\u00fac c\u1ee7a m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng l\u1ee3i \u00edch t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng, do \u0111\u00f3, n\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n \u0111\u1ee9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc hai l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn – v\u00e0 c\u1ea3 hai \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 gi\u1ed1ng nhau – th\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd ch\u1ecdn ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y theo h\u01b0\u1edbng mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i \u00edch.\u00a0<\/p>\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5: gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed r\u1eb1ng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 25 USD. M\u1ed9t l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn l\u00e0 h\u1ecd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a ngay 25 USD. M\u1ed9t l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a 50 USD v\u00e0 b\u1ecb l\u1ea5y m\u1ea5t 25 USD. Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a 25 USD l\u00e0 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n gi\u1ed1ng nhau trong c\u1ea3 hai l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn nh\u1eadn ti\u1ec1n ngay v\u00ec m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n l\u00e3i duy nh\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c ban \u0111\u1ea7u c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u ti\u1ec1n h\u01a1n v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 b\u1ecb m\u1ea5t \u0111i.<\/p>\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng trong \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/font><\/h3>\n

H\u00e3y xem x\u00e9t m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nghe gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u cho c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t qu\u0129 t\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u1ed7 b\u1edfi hai c\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ri\u00eang bi\u1ec7t.\u00a0<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t c\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y qu\u0129 cho nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh r\u1eb1ng n\u00f3 c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh 12% trong ba n\u0103m qua.\u00a0<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c c\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n kh\u00e1c n\u00f3i v\u1edbi nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 r\u1eb1ng qu\u0129 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn tr\u00ean m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh trong 10 n\u0103m qua, nh\u01b0ng trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n.\u00a0<\/p>\n

L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng<\/b> gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nghe tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y v\u1ec1 c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t qu\u0129 t\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u1ed7, anh ta c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng mua qu\u0129 n\u00e0y t\u1eeb ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean do ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 ho\u00e0n v\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a qu\u0129 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n l\u00e3i chung, thay v\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 qu\u0129 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e0 c\u00f3 c\u1ea3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u00e0 thua l\u1ed7 cao.<\/p>\n

(Theo investopedia)<\/i><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng (kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m: Prospect Theory) cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch trong \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a con ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i v\u00e0 l\u1ed7. N\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ee9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc hai ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n c\u00f3 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 gi\u1ed1ng h\u1ec7t nhau, m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u1ecdn ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt v\u1ec1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[414],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26675"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26675"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26675\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26675"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26675"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26675"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}