{"id":26698,"date":"2023-12-07T03:03:34","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T03:03:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/gia-thuyet-ki-vong-hop-li-rational-expectation-hypothesis-la-gi-noi-dung-chinh.html"},"modified":"2023-12-22T14:43:47","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T07:43:47","slug":"gia-thuyet-ki-vong-hop-li-rational-expectation-hypothesis-la-gi-noi-dung-chinh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/gia-thuyet-ki-vong-hop-li-rational-expectation-hypothesis-la-gi-noi-dung-chinh.html","title":{"rendered":"Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft k\u00ec v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00ed (Rational expectation hypothesis) l\u00e0 g\u00ec? N\u1ed9i dung ch\u00ednh"},"content":{"rendered":"
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H\u00ecnh minh h\u1ecda<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft k\u00ec v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00ed (Rational expectation hypothesis)<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft k\u00ec v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00ed <\/b>trong ti\u1ebfng Anh l\u00e0 Rational expectation hypothesis.<\/b><\/p>\n

Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft k\u00ec v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00ed<\/i>\u00a0l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft cho r\u1eb1ng\u00a0d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o\u00a0hay d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n kinh t\u1ebf v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai nh\u00ecn chung\u00a0kh\u00f4ng l\u1ec7ch\u00a0v\u00e0 l\u00e0 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c\u00a0s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 th\u00f4ng tin th\u00edch h\u1ee3p\u00a0m\u00e0 h\u1ecd c\u00f3 v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh. Ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin m\u1edbi nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1edbi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1edbi k\u00ec v\u1ecdng ho\u1eb7c h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd.<\/p>\n

N\u1ed9i dung ch\u00ednh v\u1ec1 thuy\u1ebft k\u00ec v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00ed<\/font><\/h4>\n

Ng\u00e0y 10 th\u00e1ng 10 n\u0103m 1995, Vi\u1ec7n Khoa h\u1ecdc ho\u00e0ng gia Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh trao gi\u1ea3i khoa h\u1ecdc Kinh t\u1ebf t\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u1edb Alfred Nobel n\u0103m 1995 cho gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 Robert E. Lucas, Jr., \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Chicago, Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u00e0 \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft k\u00ec v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00ed v\u00e0 nh\u1edd \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i ph\u00e2n t\u00edch kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e0o s\u00e2u nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

Ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau cho \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o kinh doanh v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a k\u00ec v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh doanh. K\u00ec v\u1ecdng l\u00e0 nh\u00e2n t\u1ed1 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu g\u00e2y ra chu k\u00ec kinh doanh. N\u1ebfu c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh doanh ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o, th\u00ec chu k\u00ec kinh doanh d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng hi\u1ec7n nay c\u00f3 l\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i.\u00a0<\/p>\n

K\u00ec\u00a0v\u1ecdng \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c th\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1ec1 ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng, trong \u0111\u00f3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ee7 v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi lao \u0111\u1ed9ng ph\u1ea3i d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. N\u1ebfu c\u00e1c t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n kinh t\u1ebf hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, \u1ea3o t\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i, v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m hay m\u1ee9c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ebd lu\u00f4n ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

Theo quan \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea, gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng h\u00e0m \u00fd k\u00ec v\u1ecdng lu\u00f4n lu\u00f4n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c. Sai s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t sinh, nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec7ch v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. V\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, k\u00ec v\u1ecdng t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng m\u1ed9t ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 s\u1ed1 b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n v\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng sai nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft k\u00ec v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00ed ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n.<\/p>\n

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh k\u00ec v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00ed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n cho c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111ang ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 c\u1ea1nh tranh ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o v\u00e0 \u00edt c\u00f3 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng h\u01a1n khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

Robert Lucas\u00a0l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong s\u1ed1 nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 70 c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf k\u1ec9 20. C\u00f4ng tr\u00ecnh nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n nhanh ch\u00f3ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u1ee8ng d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee7a gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft k\u00ec v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00ed, s\u1ef1 ra \u0111\u1eddi c\u1ee7a l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c chu k\u00ec kinh doanh, \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i s\u00e2u v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch kinh t\u1ebf v\u1edbi ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea. Ngo\u00e0i nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4, nh\u1eefng \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p kh\u00e1c c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 c\u00f2n c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng l\u1edbn v\u1edbi nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u trong c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c.<\/p>\n

(T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o: Nguy\u1ec5n V\u0103n Ng\u1ecdc, T\u1eeb \u0111i\u1ec3n Kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc, \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Kinh t\u1ebf Qu\u1ed1c d\u00e2n)<\/i><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft k\u00ec v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00ed (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Rational expectation hypothesis) do nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9 Robert E. Lucas, Jr. ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft k\u00ec v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00ed \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i ph\u00e2n t\u00edch kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e0o s\u00e2u nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch kinh t\u1ebf.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[414],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26698"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26698"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26698\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26698"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26698"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26698"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}