{"id":26732,"date":"2023-12-07T03:05:10","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T03:05:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/bay-dan-so-polulation-trap-la-gi-noi-dung-ve-bay-dan-so.html"},"modified":"2023-12-22T14:49:27","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T07:49:27","slug":"bay-dan-so-polulation-trap-la-gi-noi-dung-ve-bay-dan-so","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/bay-dan-so-polulation-trap-la-gi-noi-dung-ve-bay-dan-so.html","title":{"rendered":"B\u1eaby d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 (Polulation trap) l\u00e0 g\u00ec? N\u1ed9i dung v\u1ec1 B\u1eaby d\u00e2n s\u1ed1"},"content":{"rendered":"
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H\u00ecnh minh h\u1ecda (Ngu\u1ed3n: worldatlas.com)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

B\u1eaby d\u00e2n s\u1ed1<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

B\u1eaby d\u00e2n s\u1ed1<\/b> trong ti\u1ebfng Anh l\u00e0 Polulation trap.<\/b><\/p>\n

B\u1eaby d\u00e2n s\u1ed1<\/i>\u00a0l\u00e0 t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng trong \u0111\u00f3 t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 t\u0103ng d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc cao h\u01a1n t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf m\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. H\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 thu nh\u1eadp b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng ngh\u00e8o kh\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a qu\u1ea7n ch\u00fang tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n h\u01a1n. \u0110\u1ec3 s\u1eeda ch\u1eefa t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng n\u00e0y, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ph\u1ea3i t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0o (k\u00ecm h\u00e3m) t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng d\u00e2n s\u1ed1.<\/p>\n

(T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o:<\/u>\u00a0Nguy\u1ec5n V\u0103n Ng\u1ecdc, T\u1eeb \u0111i\u1ec3n Kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc, \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Kinh t\u1ebf Qu\u1ed1c d\u00e2n)<\/i><\/p>\n

N\u1ed9i dung v\u1ec1 B\u1eaby d\u00e2n s\u1ed1<\/font><\/h3>\n

H\u1ecdc thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y\u00a0ban \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t b\u1edfi Robert Malthus trong b\u00e0i nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u\u00a0Nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc D\u00e2n\u00a0s\u1ed1\u00a0(Principle of Population) n\u0103m 1798. Do v\u1eady, b\u1eaby d\u00e2n s\u1ed1<\/i> c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 “b\u1eaby Malthus”.<\/p>\n

Nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf Thomas Robert Malthus cho r\u1eb1ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c t\u1edbi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf. Malthus \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t bi quan cho r\u1eb1ng ngay khi m\u1ee9c l\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi lao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u0103ng l\u00ean cao h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c t\u1ed1i thi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ec3 sinh s\u1ed1ng, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta s\u1ebd k\u1ebft h\u00f4n s\u1edbm h\u01a1n, \u0111\u1ebb nhi\u1ec1u con h\u01a1n v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd t\u1ea1o \u00e1p l\u1ef1c k\u00e9o m\u1ee9c l\u01b0\u01a1ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 sinh s\u1ed1ng c\u01a1 h\u1ecdc t\u1ed1i thi\u1ec3u.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng n\u1ed9i sinh n\u00e0y c\u1ee7a d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 s\u1ebd gi\u1eef m\u1ee9c thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a con ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u00e3i m\u00e3i \u1edf m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ea5p t\u1ed1i thi\u1ec3u. Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m “b\u1eaby Malthus” (Malthusian trap) m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh t\u0103ng d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ngh\u00e8o \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a h\u1ecd ch\u00ecm v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i b\u1eaby thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 m\u00e3i m\u00e3i.<\/p>\n

Trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i, b\u1ea3n n\u0103ng duy tr\u00ec gi\u1ed1ng n\u00f2i s\u1ebd k\u00edch th\u00edch d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng theo c\u1ea5p s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n nh\u01b0ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nhu y\u1ebfu ph\u1ea9m kh\u00e1c s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 t\u0103ng theo c\u1ea5p s\u1ed1 c\u1ed9ng do s\u1ef1 tho\u00e1i h\u00f3a \u0111\u1ea5t c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean thi\u00ean nhi\u00ean. H\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 \u0111\u00f3i ngh\u00e8o, qua \u0111\u00f3 k\u00edch th\u00edch c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh gi\u00e0nh t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea9y nh\u00e2n lo\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ebfn b\u1edd v\u1ef1c h\u1ee7y di\u1ec7t.<\/p>\n

V\u00e0o n\u0103m 2005, nh\u00e0 nh\u00e2n ch\u1ee7ng h\u1ecdc Jared Diamond \u0111\u00e3 thu h\u00fat s\u1ef1 quan t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ch\u00fang khi xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch “How Societies Choose to Fail or Succed” khi n\u00f3i v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n v\u0103n minh trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. \u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t, \u00f4ng Diamond m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi Maya h\u00f9ng m\u1ea1nh th\u1eddi x\u01b0a \u0111\u00e3 r\u01a1i v\u00e0o c\u00e1i b\u1eaby\u00a0d\u00e2n s\u1ed1<\/b>\u00a0Malthus khi\u1ebfn n\u1ec1n v\u0103n minh n\u00e0y \u0111i v\u1ec1 h\u01b0\u1edbng h\u1ee7y di\u1ec7t.<\/p>\n

Theo \u0111\u00f3, d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi Maya \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u01b0\u1ee3t ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p l\u1ea1c h\u1eadu c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd cho ph\u00e9p, ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u d\u00e2n h\u01a1n c\u1ea7n nhi\u1ec1u l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c h\u01a1n, c\u1ea7n nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ea5t \u0111ai h\u01a1n nh\u01b0ng ch\u00fang c\u0169ng \u0111i k\u00e8m v\u1edbi ph\u00e1 r\u1eebng, x\u00f3i m\u00f2n, h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n hay tho\u00e1i h\u00f3a \u0111\u1ea5t. H\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh gi\u00e0nh ngu\u1ed3n t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u1ed5 ra v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea9y c\u1ea3 n\u1ec1n v\u0103n minh n\u00e0y \u0111i t\u1edbi s\u1ef1 h\u1ee7y di\u1ec7t.<\/p>\n

C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00f3i, d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 c\u00f3 li\u00ean h\u1ec7 ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf. D\u00e2n s\u1ed1 t\u0103ng nhanh v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng kh\u00f4ng t\u1ed1t t\u1edbi s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia. Nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch nh\u00e2n kh\u1ea9u h\u1ecdc h\u1ee3p l\u00ed \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng nh\u1eefng l\u1ee3i \u00edch t\u1eeb giai \u0111o\u1ea1n d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 t\u0103ng nhanh c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c t\u1ed1t th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng.<\/p>\n

(T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o: B\u00e0i gi\u1ea3ng Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n,\u00a0Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh Gi\u1ea3ng d\u1ea1y Kinh t\u1ebf Fulbright)<\/i><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n B\u1eaby d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Polulation trap) l\u00e0 t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng trong \u0111\u00f3 t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 t\u0103ng d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc cao h\u01a1n t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf m\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[414],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26732"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26732"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26732\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}