{"id":26893,"date":"2023-12-07T03:11:42","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T03:11:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/hien-tuong-thien-nga-den-black-swan-trong-nen-kinh-te-la-gi.html"},"modified":"2023-12-22T14:39:02","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T07:39:02","slug":"hien-tuong-thien-nga-den-black-swan-trong-nen-kinh-te-la-gi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/hien-tuong-thien-nga-den-black-swan-trong-nen-kinh-te-la-gi.html","title":{"rendered":"Hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng thi\u00ean nga \u0111en (Black Swan) trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 g\u00ec?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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H\u00ecnh minh ho\u1ea1. Ngu\u1ed3n: techinasia.com<\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng thi\u00ean nga \u0111en<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

Hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng thi\u00ean nga \u0111en<\/b> trong ti\u1ebfng Anh l\u00e0 Black Swan.<\/b><\/p>\n

Thi\u00ean nga \u0111en<\/i> l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc, v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 nh\u1eefng t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn g\u00e2y ra nh\u1eefng h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1eb7c tr\u01b0ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n thi\u00ean nga \u0111en<\/i> l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 hi\u1ebfm c\u00f3 v\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 vi\u1ec7c l\u00ed gi\u1ea3i nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n kh\u00f4ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00fang l\u00e0 do c\u00e1c sai l\u1ea7m ng\u1ed1c ngh\u1ebfch b\u1ecb ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n mu\u1ed9n.<\/p>\n

B\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a thi\u00ean nga \u0111en<\/b><\/p>\n

Thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn b\u1edfi Nassim Nicholas Taleb, m\u1ed9t gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, nh\u00e0 v\u0103n v\u00e0 c\u1ef1u th\u01b0\u01a1ng nh\u00e2n Ph\u1ed1 Wall.<\/p>\n

Taleb m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 thi\u00ean nga \u0111e<\/i>n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n:<\/p>\n

1) v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng, r\u1ea5t hi\u1ebfm khi x\u1ea3y ra, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u0169ng ch\u01b0a ch\u1eafc c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra<\/p>\n

\u00a02) c\u00f3 h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 th\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1c khi n\u00f3 x\u1ea3y ra\u00a0<\/p>\n

3) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n m\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc sau khi n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra<\/p>\n

Taleb l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng v\u00ec c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n thi\u00ean nga \u0111en <\/i>l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c do s\u1ef1 hi\u1ebfm c\u00f3 c\u1ef1c k\u00ec c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn mang l\u1ea1i h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 th\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1c, \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u1ea3i cho r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n thi\u00ean nga \u0111en<\/i> lu\u00f4n lu\u00f4n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra, v\u00e0 c\u00f3 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3.<\/p>\n

V\u00ec thi\u00ean nga \u0111en l<\/i>\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n quan tr\u1ecdng trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u r\u1ea5t mu\u1ed1n gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch n\u00f3 sau khi n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra trong th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 suy \u0111o\u00e1n v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n. Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00e1c suy \u0111o\u00e1n nh\u00ecn t\u1eeb s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady kh\u00f4ng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 gi\u00fap d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n thi\u00ean nga \u0111en<\/i>.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c v\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n thi\u00ean nga \u0111en<\/font><\/h3>\n

S\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea5t M\u1ef9 trong cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng n\u0103m 2008 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n thi\u00ean nga \u0111en <\/i>n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng nh\u1ea5t g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y. H\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0y r\u1ea5t th\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1c v\u00e0 mang t\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t v\u00e0i ng\u01b0\u1eddi ngo\u1ea1i l\u1ec7 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n n\u00f3 s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra.<\/p>\n

C\u0169ng trong n\u0103m 2008, Zimbabwe c\u00f3 m\u1ee9c si\u00eau l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 nh\u1ea5t trong th\u1ebf k\u1ec9 21 v\u1edbi t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 h\u01a1n 79,6 t\u1ec9 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m. M\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao nh\u01b0 v\u1eady g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng h\u1ee7y ho\u1ea1i t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia.<\/p>\n

Bong b\u00f3ng dotcom n\u0103m 2001 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n thi\u00ean nga \u0111en<\/b> kh\u00e1c c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u1edbi cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh n\u0103m 2008. L\u00fac \u0111\u00f3 n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 \u0111ang t\u1eadn h\u01b0\u1edfng n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhanh ch\u00f3ng v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3i t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 th\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1c.\u00a0<\/p>\n

V\u00ec Internet l\u00fac \u0111\u00f3 m\u1edbi trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, c\u00e1c qu\u0129 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 r\u00f3t v\u1ed1n v\u00e0o c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 qu\u00e1 cao. Khi c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty n\u00e0y s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5, c\u00e1c qu\u0129 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ph\u1ea3i g\u00e1nh ch\u1ecbu r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n

(Theo\u00a0investopedia.com)<\/i><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n Thi\u00ean nga \u0111en (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Black Swan) l\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ef1c k\u00ec hi\u1ebfm khi x\u1ea3y ra v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc, mang l\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 t\u00e0n kh\u1ed1c cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[414],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26893"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26893"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26893\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26893"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26893"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26893"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}