{"id":28895,"date":"2023-12-07T05:26:39","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T05:26:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/hoach-dinh-theo-kich-ban-scenario-planning-la-gi-vai-tro-va-cac-buoc-ho-tro.html"},"modified":"2023-12-23T06:07:10","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T23:07:10","slug":"hoach-dinh-theo-kich-ban-scenario-planning-la-gi-vai-tro-va-cac-buoc-ho-tro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/hoach-dinh-theo-kich-ban-scenario-planning-la-gi-vai-tro-va-cac-buoc-ho-tro.html","title":{"rendered":"Ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n (Scenario Planning) l\u00e0 g\u00ec? Vai tr\u00f2 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c b\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3"},"content":{"rendered":"
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H\u00ecnh minh h\u1ecda. Ngu\u1ed3n: imagebuildsbusiness.org<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n (Scenario Planning)<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

Ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n<\/b> trong ti\u1ebfng Anh g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 Scenario Planning<\/b>.<\/p>\n

Ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n<\/b> l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00f3 ti\u00ean li\u1ec7u nh\u1eefng t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng li\u00ean quan nh\u1eb1m \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 s\u1ef1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng h\u00e0nh vi thay th\u1ebf.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb cho s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd<\/b><\/p>\n

– X\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng<\/p>\n

– X\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 s\u1edbm c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0y (n\u1ebfu c\u00f3)<\/p>\n

– Thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp m\u1ed9t h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng thu th\u1eadp th\u00f4ng tin \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 s\u1edbm<\/p>\n

– C\u00f3 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng th\u00edch h\u1ee3p (k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch) di\u1ec5n ra n\u1ebfu nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd x\u1ea3y ra<\/p>\n

Vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n<\/font><\/h3>\n

Theo McKinsey, ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n gi\u00fap doanh nghi\u1ec7p:<\/p>\n

Th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng v\u00e0 l\u1ed1i t\u01b0 duy v\u1ec1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai<\/i><\/p>\n

Thay v\u00ec b\u00f3 h\u1eb9p d\u01b0\u1edbi g\u00f3c nh\u00ecn c\u1ee7a t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, c\u1ee7a chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng, c\u1ee7a marketing tr\u00ean c\u01a1 s\u1edf c\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 th\u00ec ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng ph\u1ea1m vu t\u01b0 duy h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n cho ph\u00e9p c\u00f4ng ty m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng ph\u1ea1m vi nh\u1eefng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 kh\u1ea3 d\u0129 c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 t\u00ecm ra nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1eb1ng sau n\u00f3 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p. N\u00f3 bu\u1ed9c c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty ph\u1ea3i lu\u00f4n \u0111\u1eb7t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi “Li\u1ec7u \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec s\u1ebd m\u1edf \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cho nh\u1eefng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 sau tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c?”.<\/p>\n

V\u1eady n\u00ean h\u1ecd ph\u1ea3i lu\u00f4n t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft, \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 \u1ea5y.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ee9 hai, ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n nh\u1eefng g\u00ec kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai g\u1ea7n v\u00e0 xa<\/i><\/p>\n

Khi x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n, b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n ra nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a \u0111\u1eb1ng sau m\u1ed7i s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i. Nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed5i l\u1ea1i s\u1ebd t\u1ea1o ra nh\u1eefng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n

N\u00f3i r\u1ed9ng ra, c\u00f3 4 lo\u1ea1i k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1eb5n m\u00e0 doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ea7n l\u01b0u \u00fd: xu h\u01b0\u1edbng nh\u00e2n kh\u1ea9u h\u1ecdc, c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh vi kinh t\u1ebf, s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u00e0 c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n\/k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u01b0\u1edbc (\u0111\u00f4i khi v\u01b0\u1ee3t ra ngo\u00e0i k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1eb7t ra).<\/p>\n

Th\u1ee9 ba, tr\u00e1nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u01b0 duy nh\u00f3m l\u1ee3i \u00edch<\/i><\/p>\n

Th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c trong doanh nghi\u1ec7p s\u1ebd c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn t\u1ef1 do. H\u1eb3n ai c\u0169ng r\u00f5, trong ph\u00f2ng h\u1ecdp ch\u00fang ta th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn theo nh\u1eefng g\u00ec l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o n\u00f3i.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n cho ph\u00e9p doanh nghi\u1ec7p ph\u00e1 v\u1edb c\u00e1i b\u1eaby “an to\u00e0n” trong th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn v\u00e0 m\u1edf \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cho nh\u1eefng t\u01b0 duy \u0111a chi\u1ec1u.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ee9 t\u01b0, ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u0169ng gi\u00fap ch\u00fang ta th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c c\u00e1ch t\u01b0 duy truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng<\/i><\/p>\n

C\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p l\u1edbn th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ng\u1ea1i thay \u0111\u1ed5i. Suy cho c\u00f9ng, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c c\u1ed5 \u0111\u00f4ng, nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, s\u1ef1 nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o \u0111\u00e3 tr\u00f3i bu\u1ed9c h\u1ecd v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng t\u01b0 duy c\u0169. C\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u0111\u00f4i khi \u0111\u1ed1i l\u1eadp v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh trong hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i.\u00a0<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c b\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n<\/font><\/h3>\n

V\u1eady s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n<\/b> nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o v\u00e0 n\u00f3 ph\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh trong chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p ra sao?<\/p>\n

B\u1ea3ng d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n ba b\u01b0\u1edbc quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng cho m\u1ed7i k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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C\u00e1c b\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n. Ngu\u1ed3n: “How To Do Stategic Supply-chain planning”, ManMohan S. Sodhi, MIT Sloan Management Review, Fall 2003)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 v\u00e0 k\u0129 thu\u1eadt ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb t\u1ef1 tin chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb cho t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. Nh\u01b0ng ch\u00fang s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd thay th\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c k\u0129 n\u0103ng v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb trong vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng th\u00f4ng tin thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3.<\/p>\n

(Theo Gi\u00e1o tr\u00ecnh Qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb kinh doanh, NXB \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Kinh t\u1ebf qu\u1ed1c d\u00e2n<\/i>)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n Ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Scenario Planning) gi\u00fap c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd x\u1ea3y ra v\u00e0 bi\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00ean h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[416],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28895"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28895"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28895\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28895"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28895"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28895"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}