{"id":29240,"date":"2023-12-07T07:28:11","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T07:28:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/ra-quyet-dinh-duoi-dieu-kien-khong-chac-chan-decision-making-under-uncertainty-la-gi.html"},"modified":"2023-12-23T06:08:42","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T23:08:42","slug":"ra-quyet-dinh-duoi-dieu-kien-khong-chac-chan-decision-making-under-uncertainty-la-gi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/ra-quyet-dinh-duoi-dieu-kien-khong-chac-chan-decision-making-under-uncertainty-la-gi.html","title":{"rendered":"Ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn (Decision Making under Uncertainty) l\u00e0 g\u00ec?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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H\u00ecnh minh ho\u1ea1 (Ngu\u1ed3n: hbr)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Ra quy\u00ea\u0301t \u0111i\u0323nh du\u031b\u01a1\u0301i \u0111i\u00ea\u0300u ki\u1eb9\u0302n kho\u0302ng ch\u0103\u0301c ch\u0103\u0301n trong l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

Ra quy\u00ea\u0301t \u0111i\u0323nh du\u031b\u01a1\u0301i \u0111i\u00ea\u0300u ki\u1eb9\u0302n kho\u0302ng ch\u0103\u0301c ch\u0103\u0301n<\/b> trong ti\u1ebfng Anh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0<\/p>\n

Ra quy\u00ea\u0301t \u0111i\u0323nh du\u031b\u01a1\u0301i \u0111i\u00ea\u0300u ki\u1eb9\u0302n kho\u0302ng ch\u0103\u0301c ch\u0103\u0301n <\/b>l\u00e0\u00a0tru\u031b\u01a1\u0300ng h\u01a1\u0323p ngu\u031b\u01a1\u0300i ra quy\u00ea\u0301t \u0111i\u0323nh kho\u0302ng bi\u00ea\u0301t \u0111i\u00ea\u0300u gi\u0300 se\u0303 xa\u0309y ra \u0111\u00f4\u0301i v\u01a1\u0301i k\u00ea\u0301t qua\u0309 cu\u0309a m\u00f4\u0303i ca\u0301ch l\u01b0\u0323a cho\u0323n cu\u0309a mi\u0300nh.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Thi\u0301 du\u0323 kho\u0302ng th\u00ea\u0309 bi\u00ea\u0301t ch\u0103\u0301c ch\u0103\u0301n tu\u00e2\u0300n t\u01a1\u0301i mu\u031ba hay n\u0103\u0301ng; thi\u0323 tru\u031b\u01a1\u0300ng ch\u01b0\u0301ng khoa\u0301n nga\u0300y mai ta\u0306ng hay gia\u0309m; \u0111\u1ecd\u0302i bo\u0301ng \u0111a\u0301 na\u0300o vo\u0302 \u0111i\u0323ch trong mu\u0300a gia\u0309i t\u01a1\u0301i…<\/p>\n

Trong \u0111i\u00ea\u0300u ki\u1eb9\u0302n kho\u0302ng ch\u0103\u0301c ch\u0103\u0301n, doanh nghi\u1eb9\u0302p pha\u0309i l\u01b0\u0323a cho\u0323n phu\u031bo\u031bng a\u0301n co\u0302ng su\u00e2\u0301t sao cho co\u0301 l\u01a1\u0323i nh\u00e2\u0301t \u0111\u00f4\u0301i v\u01a1\u0301i t\u01b0\u0300ng ti\u0300nh hu\u00f4\u0301ng xa\u0309y ra.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Doanh nghi\u1eb9\u0302p co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 cho\u0323n co\u0302ng su\u00e2\u0301t \u0111em la\u0323i gia\u0301 tri\u0323 ti\u00ea\u0300n t\u1eb9\u0302 mong \u0111\u01a1\u0323i l\u01a1\u0301n nh\u00e2\u0301t ho\u1ea1\u0306c co\u0301 m\u01b0\u0301c thua l\u00f4\u0303 th\u00e2\u0301p nh\u00e2\u0301t ho\u1ea1\u0306c \u0111a\u0309m ba\u0309o kha\u0309 na\u0306ng ca\u0302n b\u0103\u0300ng gi\u01b0\u0303a ca\u0301c m\u01b0\u0301c \u0111\u1ecd\u0302 l\u01a1\u0323i nhu\u1ea1\u0302n thu \u0111u\u031b\u01a1\u0323c v\u01a1\u0301i m\u01b0\u0301c thua l\u00f4\u0303 co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 xa\u0309y ra, ho\u1ea1\u0306c la\u0300 l\u01b0\u0323a cho\u0323n phu\u031bo\u031bng a\u0301n co\u0301 gia\u0301 tri\u0323 co\u031b h\u1ecd\u0302i bo\u0309 l\u01a1\u0303 th\u00e2\u0301p nh\u00e2\u0301t.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Quy\u00ea\u0301t \u0111i\u0323nh l\u01b0\u0323a cho\u0323n na\u0300y phu\u0323 thu\u1ecd\u0302c hoa\u0300n toa\u0300n va\u0300o m\u01b0\u0301c \u0111\u1ecd\u0302 s\u0103\u0303n sa\u0300ng ch\u00e2\u0301p nh\u1ea1\u0302n ru\u0309i ro cu\u0309a ca\u0301c doanh nghi\u1eb9\u0302p.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau \u0111\u1eb7c tr\u01b0ng<\/font><\/h3>\n

\u0110\u00ea\u0309 \u0111u\u031ba ra nh\u01b0\u0303ng quy\u00ea\u0301t \u0111i\u0323nh l\u01b0\u0323a cho\u0323n ca\u0301c phu\u031bo\u031bng a\u0301n, ngu\u031b\u01a1\u0300i ta s\u01b0\u0309 du\u0323ng ca\u0301c chi\u0309 tie\u0302u \u0111\u1ea1\u0306c tru\u031bng cu\u0323 th\u00ea\u0309 sau:<\/p>\n

– Chi\u0309 tie\u0302u Maximax<\/b><\/p>\n

Chi\u0309 tie\u0302u na\u0300y co\u0300n go\u0323i la\u0300 chi\u0309 tie\u0302u la\u0323c quan, b\u01a1\u0309i vi\u0300 trong tru\u031b\u01a1\u0300ng h\u01a1\u0323p na\u0300y doanh nghi\u1eb9\u0302p se\u0303 l\u01b0\u0323a cho\u0323n phu\u031bo\u031bng a\u0301n co\u0302ng su\u00e2\u0301t co\u0301 gia\u0301 tri\u0323 ti\u00ea\u0300n t\u1eb9\u0302 mong \u0111\u01a1\u0323i thu \u0111u\u031b\u01a1\u0323c l\u01a1\u0301n nh\u00e2\u0301t.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Doanh nghi\u1eb9\u0302p co\u0301 m\u01b0\u0301c ch\u00e2\u0301p nh\u1ea1\u0302n ru\u0309i ro cao, tin tu\u031b\u01a1\u0309ng se\u0303 thu \u0111u\u031b\u01a1\u0323c l\u01a1\u0323i nhu\u1ea1\u0302n cao nh\u00e2\u0301t v\u01a1\u0301i phu\u031bo\u031bng a\u0301n co\u0302ng su\u00e2\u0301t l\u01b0\u0323a cho\u0323n.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Phu\u031bo\u031bng pha\u0301p l\u01b0\u0323a cho\u0323n la\u0300 ti\u0301nh toa\u0301n gia\u0301 tri\u0323 ti\u00ea\u0300n l\u01a1\u0300i thu \u0111u\u031b\u01a1\u0323c l\u01a1\u0301n nh\u00e2\u0301t cu\u0309a t\u01b0\u0300ng phu\u031bo\u031bng a\u0301n va\u0300 l\u01b0\u0323a cho\u0323n phu\u031bo\u031bng a\u0301n co\u0301 l\u01a1\u0323i nhu\u1ea1\u0302n cao nh\u00e2\u0301t.<\/p>\n

– Chi\u0309 tie\u0302u Maximin<\/b><\/p>\n

Ngu\u031b\u01a1\u0300i ta co\u0300n go\u0323i la\u0300 chi\u0309 tie\u0302u bi quan, b\u01a1\u0309i vi\u0300 trong tru\u031b\u01a1\u0300ng ho\u031bp na\u0300y doanh nghi\u1eb9\u0302p l\u01b0\u0323a cho\u0323n phu\u031bo\u031bng a\u0301n co\u0302ng su\u00e2\u0301t co\u0301 gia\u0301 tri\u0323 thua l\u00f4\u0303 th\u00e2\u0301p nh\u00e2\u0301t.\u00a0<\/p>\n

V\u01a1\u0301i chi\u0309 tie\u0302u na\u0300y, doanh nghi\u1eb9\u0302p co\u0301 m\u01b0\u0301c ma\u0323o hi\u00ea\u0309m th\u00e2\u0301p, ch\u00e2\u0301p nh\u1ea1\u0302n phu\u031bo\u031bng a\u0301n co\u0302ng su\u00e2\u0301t sao cho m\u01b0\u0301c thua l\u00f4\u0303 n\u00ea\u0301u xa\u0309y ra se\u0303 th\u00e2\u0301p nh\u00e2\u0301t.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Phu\u031bo\u031bng a\u0301n \u0111u\u031b\u01a1\u0323c l\u01b0\u0323a cho\u0323n la\u0300 phu\u031bo\u031bng a\u0301n co\u0301 gia\u0301 tri\u0323 ti\u00ea\u0300n t\u1eb9\u0302 mong \u0111\u01a1\u0323i l\u01a1\u0301n nh\u00e2\u0301t trong nh\u01b0\u0303ng gia\u0301 tri\u0323 mong \u0111\u01a1\u0323i nho\u0309 nh\u00e2\u0301t ma\u0300 m\u00f4\u0303i phu\u031bo\u031bng a\u0301n thu \u0111u\u031b\u01a1\u0323c.<\/p>\n

– Chi\u0309 tie\u0302u may ru\u0309i ngang nhau<\/b><\/p>\n

Theo chi\u0309 tie\u0302u na\u0300y, doanh nghi\u1eb9\u0302p ch\u00e2\u0301p nh\u1ea1\u0302n m\u1ecd\u0302t m\u01b0\u0301c ma\u0323o hi\u00ea\u0309m trung bi\u0300nh. Ngu\u031b\u01a1\u0300i ta cho\u0323n phu\u031bo\u031bng a\u0301n co\u0301 gia\u0301 tri\u0323 ti\u00ea\u0300n t\u1eb9\u0302 mong \u0111\u01a1\u0323i trung bi\u0300nh l\u01a1\u0301n nh\u00e2\u0301t trong ca\u0301c phu\u031bo\u031bng a\u0301n \u0111u\u031ba ra.<\/p>\n

Chi\u0309 tie\u0302u gia\u0301 tri\u0323 co\u031b h\u1ecd\u0302i bo\u0309 l\u01a1\u0303 th\u00e2\u0301p nh\u00e2\u0301t Trong tru\u031b\u01a1\u0300ng h\u01a1\u0323p s\u01b0\u0309 du\u0323ng chi\u0309 tie\u0302u na\u0300y, doanh nghi\u1eb9\u0302p c\u00f4\u0301 g\u0103\u0301ng ti\u0300m cho\u0323n phu\u031bo\u031bng a\u0301n co\u0302ng su\u00e2\u0301t sao cho trong nh\u01b0\u0303ng ti\u0300nh hu\u00f4\u0301ng kha\u0301c nhau se\u0303 thu \u0111u\u031b\u01a1\u0323c gia\u0301 tri\u0323 ti\u00ea\u0300n t\u1eb9\u0302 mong \u0111\u01a1\u0323i \u01a1\u0309 m\u01b0\u0301c \u0111a\u0309m ba\u0309o ye\u0302u c\u00e2\u0300u t\u00f4\u0301i thi\u00ea\u0309u hoa\u0301 nh\u01b0\u0303ng gia\u0301 tri\u0323 co\u031b h\u1ecd\u0302i co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 bi\u0323 bo\u0309 l\u01a1\u0303 tre\u0302n thi\u0323 tru\u031b\u01a1\u0300ng.\u00a0<\/p>\n

C\u00e1ch th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n<\/font><\/h3>\n

Phu\u031bo\u031bng pha\u0301p l\u01b0\u0323a cho\u0323n \u0111u\u031b\u01a1\u0323c ti\u00ea\u0301n ha\u0300nh b\u0103\u0300ng ca\u0301ch l\u1ea1\u0302p ba\u0309ng ca\u0301c gia\u0301 tri\u0323 co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 bi\u0323 bo\u0309 l\u01a1\u0303. \u0110\u00f4\u0301i v\u01a1\u0301i t\u01b0\u0300ng ti\u0300nh hu\u00f4\u0301ng xa\u0309y ra se\u0303 xa\u0301c \u0111i\u0323nh gia\u0301 tri\u0323 co\u031b h\u1ecd\u0302i bo\u0309 l\u01a1\u0303 cu\u0309a t\u01b0\u0300ng phu\u031bo\u031bng a\u0301n b\u0103\u0300ng ca\u0301ch l\u00e2\u0301y gia\u0301 tri\u0323 ti\u00ea\u0300n t\u1eb9\u0302 mong \u0111\u01a1\u0323i l\u01a1\u0301n nh\u00e2\u0301t tr\u01b0\u0300 \u0111i gia\u0301 tri\u0323 cu\u0309a ca\u0301c phu\u031bo\u031bng a\u0301n co\u0300n la\u0323i, sau \u0111o\u0301 se\u0303 l\u01b0\u0323a cho\u0323n gia\u0301 tri\u0323.<\/p>\n

(T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o: Qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb t\u00e1c nghi\u1ec7p, Trung t\u00e2m \u0111\u00e0o t\u1ea1o t\u1eeb xa, \u0110H Kinh t\u1ebf Qu\u1ed1c d\u00e2n)<\/i><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n Ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Decision Making under Uncertainty) l\u00e0 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p ng\u01b0\u1eddi ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00f4ng bi\u1ebft \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed7i c\u00e1ch l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[416],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29240"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29240"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29240\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29240"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29240"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29240"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}