{"id":29251,"date":"2023-12-07T07:28:48","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T07:28:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/du-bao-forecasting-trong-quan-tri-tac-nghiep-la-gi-phan-loai-va-vai-tro.html"},"modified":"2023-12-23T06:08:43","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T23:08:43","slug":"du-bao-forecasting-trong-quan-tri-tac-nghiep-la-gi-phan-loai-va-vai-tro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/du-bao-forecasting-trong-quan-tri-tac-nghiep-la-gi-phan-loai-va-vai-tro.html","title":{"rendered":"D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o (Forecasting) trong qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb t\u00e1c nghi\u1ec7p l\u00e0 g\u00ec? Ph\u00e2n lo\u1ea1i v\u00e0 vai tr\u00f2"},"content":{"rendered":"
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H\u00ecnh minh ho\u1ea1 (Ngu\u1ed3n: cfainstitute)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o trong qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb t\u00e1c nghi\u1ec7p<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o<\/b> trong ti\u1ebfng Anh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 forecasting.<\/b><\/p>\n

D\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o <\/b>la\u0300 khoa ho\u0323c va\u0300 ngh\u1eb9\u0302 thu\u1ea1\u0302t tie\u0302n \u0111oa\u0301n ca\u0301c s\u01b0\u0323 vi\u1eb9\u0302c co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 se\u0303 xa\u0309y ra trong tu\u031bo\u031bng lai.<\/p>\n

Ti\u0301nh khoa ho\u0323c<\/b> cu\u0309a d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o th\u00ea\u0309 hi\u1eb9\u0302n \u01a1\u0309 ch\u00f4\u0303 khi ti\u00ea\u0301n ha\u0300nh d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o ngu\u031b\u01a1\u0300i ta pha\u0309i ca\u0306n c\u01b0\u0301 tre\u0302n ca\u0301c d\u01b0\u0303 li\u1eb9\u0302u pha\u0309n a\u0301nh ti\u0300nh hi\u0300nh th\u01b0\u0323c t\u00ea\u0301 trong qua\u0301 kh\u01b0\u0301 va\u0300 hi\u1eb9\u0302n ta\u0323i, ca\u0306n c\u01b0\u0301 va\u0300o xu th\u00ea\u0301 tre\u0302n co\u031b s\u01a1\u0309 khoa ho\u0323c \u0111\u00ea\u0309 d\u01b0\u0323 \u0111oa\u0301n nh\u01b0\u0303ng s\u01b0\u0323 vi\u1eb9\u0302c co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 se\u0303 xa\u0309y ra trong tu\u031bo\u031bng lai.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ngu\u031b\u01a1\u0300i ta co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 s\u01b0\u0309 du\u0323ng phu\u031bo\u031bng pha\u0301p \u0111i\u0323nh lu\u031b\u01a1\u0323ng tre\u0302n co\u031b s\u01a1\u0309 m\u1ecd\u0302t s\u00f4\u0301 mo\u0302 hi\u0300nh toa\u0301n ho\u0323c na\u0300o \u0111o\u0301 \u0111\u00ea\u0309 \u0111u\u031ba ra nh\u01b0\u0303ng d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o cho tu\u031bo\u031bng lai. Phu\u031bo\u031bng pha\u0301p \u0111i\u0323nh lu\u031b\u01a1\u0323ng co\u0301 ti\u0301nh khoa ho\u0323c cao va\u0300 la\u0300m co\u031b s\u01a1\u0309 cho nha\u0300 qua\u0309n tri\u0323 \u0111u\u031ba ra quy\u00ea\u0301t \u0111i\u0323nh v\u00ea\u0300 d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhie\u0302n, nhu c\u00e2\u0300u v\u00ea\u0300 sa\u0309n ph\u00e2\u0309m kho\u0302ng pha\u0309i khi na\u0300o cu\u0303ng \u00f4\u0309n \u0111i\u0323nh, c\u00f4\u0301 \u0111i\u0323nh ma\u0300 no\u0301 luo\u0302n bi\u00ea\u0301n \u0111\u1ecd\u0302ng \u0111o\u0300i ho\u0309i ca\u0301c nha\u0300 qua\u0309n tri\u0323 pha\u0309i s\u01b0\u0309 du\u0323ng k\u00ea\u0301t h\u01a1\u0323p v\u01a1\u0301i phu\u031bo\u031bng pha\u0301p ngh\u1eb9\u0302 thu\u1ea1\u0302t.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ngh\u1eb9\u0302 thu\u1ea1\u0302t <\/b>trong d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o no\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 hi\u1eb9\u0302n \u01a1\u0309 ch\u00f4\u0303 la\u0300 nha\u0300 qua\u0309n tri\u0323 pha\u0309i s\u01b0\u0309 du\u0323ng ta\u0300i pha\u0301n \u0111oa\u0301n, kinh nghi\u1eb9\u0302m trong nh\u01b0\u0303ng \u0111i\u00ea\u0300u ki\u1eb9\u0302n thi\u00ea\u0301u tho\u0302ng tin ho\u1ea1\u0306c nhu c\u00e2\u0300u cu\u0309a kha\u0301ch ha\u0300ng bi\u00ea\u0301n \u0111\u1ecd\u0302ng ma\u0323nh.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Chi\u0301nh ti\u0301nh ngh\u1eb9\u0302 thu\u1ea1\u0302t na\u0300y la\u0300m cho d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o linh hoa\u0323t ho\u031bn nhu\u031bng cu\u0303ng la\u0300m gia\u0309m ti\u0301nh chi\u0301nh xa\u0301c cu\u0309a no\u0301.<\/p>\n

Ph\u00e2n lo\u1ea1i\u00a0<\/font><\/h3>\n

– Theo phu\u031bo\u031bng pha\u0301p d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o, <\/b>co\u0301 d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o \u0111i\u0323nh ti\u0301nh va\u0300 d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o \u0111i\u0323nh lu\u031b\u01a1\u0323ng.\u00a0<\/p>\n

– Theo th\u01a1\u0300i gian, <\/b>co\u0301 d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o ng\u0103\u0301n ha\u0323n, trung ha\u0323n va\u0300 da\u0300i ha\u0323n.<\/p>\n

+ D\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o ng\u0103\u0301n ha\u0323n: Khoa\u0309ng th\u01a1\u0300i gian d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o ng\u0103\u0301n ha\u0323n thu\u031b\u01a1\u0300ng du\u031b\u01a1\u0301i 1 na\u0306m.<\/p>\n

+ D\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o trung ha\u0323n: Khoa\u0309ng th\u01a1\u0300i gian d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o trung ha\u0323n thu\u031b\u01a1\u0300ng t\u01b0\u0300 6 tha\u0301ng \u0111\u00ea\u0301n 3 na\u0306m.<\/p>\n

+ D\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o da\u0300i ha\u0323n: Khoa\u0309ng th\u01a1\u0300i gian d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o thu\u031b\u01a1\u0300ng la\u0300 t\u01b0\u0300 3 na\u0306m tr\u01a1\u0309 le\u0302n.<\/p>\n

D\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o da\u0300i ha\u0323n va\u0300 trung ha\u0323n gia\u0309i quy\u00ea\u0301t nh\u01b0\u0303ng v\u00e2\u0301n \u0111\u00ea\u0300 co\u0301 ti\u0301nh toa\u0300n di\u1eb9\u0302n y\u00ea\u0309m tr\u01a1\u0323 cho ca\u0301c quy\u00ea\u0301t \u0111i\u0323nh qua\u0309n l\u00ed thu\u1ecd\u0302c v\u00ea\u0300 hoa\u0323ch \u0111i\u0323nh k\u00ea\u0301 hoa\u0323ch sa\u0309n xu\u00e2\u0301t va\u0300 qua\u0301 tri\u0300nh co\u0302ng ngh\u1eb9\u0302.\u00a0<\/p>\n

D\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o da\u0300i ha\u0323n va\u0300 trung ha\u0323n s\u01b0\u0309 du\u0323ng i\u0301t phu\u031bo\u031bng pha\u0301p va\u0300 k\u0129 thu\u1ea1\u0302t d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o ho\u031bn d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o ng\u0103\u0301n ha\u0323n. D\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o ng\u0103\u0301n ha\u0323n s\u01b0\u0309 du\u0323ng ph\u00f4\u0309 bi\u00ea\u0301n ca\u0301c mo\u0302 hi\u0300nh toa\u0301n ho\u0323c nhu\u031b bi\u0300nh qua\u0302n, san b\u0103\u0300ng s\u00f4\u0301 mu\u0303.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00ea\u0309 d\u01b0\u0323 \u0111oa\u0301n ca\u0301c v\u00e2\u0301n \u0111\u00ea\u0300 l\u01a1\u0301n toa\u0300n di\u1eb9\u0302n nhu\u031b \u0111u\u031ba m\u1ecd\u0302t sa\u0309n ph\u00e2\u0309m m\u01a1\u0301i va\u0300o danh mu\u0323c m\u1ea1\u0306t ha\u0300ng cu\u0309a co\u0302ng ty ch\u0103\u0309ng ha\u0323n, i\u0301t khi s\u01b0\u0309 du\u0323ng phu\u031bo\u031bng pha\u0301p \u0111i\u0323nh lu\u031b\u01a1\u0323ng.\u00a0<\/p>\n

D\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o ng\u0103\u0301n ha\u0323n co\u0301 khuynh hu\u031b\u01a1\u0301ng chi\u0301nh xa\u0301c ho\u031bn d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o da\u0300i ha\u0323n, b\u01a1\u0309i vi\u0300 co\u0301 r\u00e2\u0301t nhi\u00ea\u0300u nha\u0302n t\u00f4\u0301 a\u0309nh hu\u031b\u01a1\u0309ng \u0111\u00ea\u0301n nhu c\u00e2\u0300u thay \u0111\u00f4\u0309i ha\u0300ng nga\u0300y, n\u00ea\u0301u ke\u0301o da\u0300i th\u01a1\u0300i gian d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o, \u0111\u1ecd\u0302 chi\u0301nh xa\u0301c co\u0301 th\u00ea\u0309 se\u0303 gia\u0309m \u0111i.<\/p>\n

– N\u00ea\u0301u ca\u0306n c\u01b0\u0301 va\u0300o n\u1ecd\u0302i dung co\u0302ng vi\u1eb9\u0302c<\/b> c\u00e2\u0300n <\/b>d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o co\u0301 d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o kinh t\u00ea\u0301, d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o k\u0129 thu\u1ea1\u0302t, d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o nhu c\u00e2\u0300u.<\/p>\n

+ D\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o kinh t\u00ea\u0301: <\/b>D\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o kinh t\u00ea\u0301 do ca\u0301c co\u031b quan nghie\u0302n c\u01b0\u0301u, ca\u0301c b\u1ecd\u0302 ph\u1ea1\u0302n tu\u031b v\u00e2\u0301n kinh t\u00ea\u0301 nha\u0300 nu\u031b\u01a1\u0301c th\u01b0\u0323c hi\u1eb9\u0302n.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0\u0303ng chi\u0309 tie\u0302u na\u0300y co\u0301 gia\u0301 tri\u0323 l\u01a1\u0301n trong vi\u1eb9\u0302c h\u00f4\u0303 tr\u01a1\u0323, ta\u0323o ti\u00ea\u0300n \u0111\u00ea\u0300 cho co\u0302ng ta\u0301c d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o trung ha\u0323n, da\u0300i ha\u0323n cu\u0309a doanh nghi\u1eb9\u0302p.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Vi\u0301 du\u0323: D\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o v\u00ea\u0300 th\u00e2\u0301t nghi\u1eb9\u0302p, GDP, t\u00f4\u0301c \u0111\u1ecd\u0302 ta\u0306ng tru\u031b\u01a1\u0309ng kinh t\u00ea\u0301…<\/p>\n

+ D\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o k\u0129<\/span> thu\u1ea1\u0302t co\u0302ng ngh\u1eb9\u0302:<\/b> D\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o na\u0300y \u0111\u00ea\u0300 c\u1ea1\u0302p \u0111\u00ea\u0301n m\u01b0\u0301c \u0111\u1ecd\u0302 pha\u0301t tri\u00ea\u0309n khoa ho\u0323c k\u0129<\/span> thu\u1ea1\u0302t co\u0302ng ngh\u1eb9\u0302 trong tu\u031bo\u031bng lai. Loa\u0323i na\u0300y r\u00e2\u0301t quan tro\u0323ng \u0111\u00f4\u0301i v\u01a1\u0301i nga\u0300nh co\u0301 ha\u0300m lu\u031b\u01a1\u0323ng k\u0129<\/span> thu\u1ea1\u0302t cao nhu\u031b d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o na\u0306ng lu\u031b\u01a1\u0323ng nguye\u0302n t\u01b0\u0309, ta\u0300u vu\u0303 tru\u0323, ma\u0301y ti\u0301nh, thi\u00ea\u0301t bi\u0323 \u0111i\u1eb9\u0302n t\u01b0\u0309…<\/p>\n

+ D\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o c\u00e2\u0300u: <\/b>Th\u01b0\u0323c ch\u00e2\u0301t cu\u0309a d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o nhu c\u00e2\u0300u la\u0300 tie\u0302n \u0111oa\u0301n v\u00ea\u0300 c\u00e2\u0300u \u01a1\u0309 c\u00e2\u0301p \u0111\u1ecd\u0302 vi\u0303 mo\u0302 va\u0300 \u01a1\u0309 c\u00e2\u0301p \u0111\u1ecd\u0302 vi mo\u0302.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Loa\u0323i d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o na\u0300y \u0111u\u031b\u01a1\u0323c ca\u0301c nha\u0300 qua\u0309n tri\u0323 sa\u0309n xu\u00e2\u0301t \u0111\u1ea1\u0306c bi\u1eb9\u0302t quan ta\u0302m vi\u0300 qua \u0111o\u0301 ca\u0301c doanh nghi\u1eb9\u0302p se\u0303 quy\u00ea\u0301t \u0111i\u0323nh \u0111u\u031b\u01a1\u0323c qui mo\u0302 sa\u0309n xu\u00e2\u0301t, hoa\u0323t \u0111\u1ecd\u0302ng cu\u0309a co\u0302ng ty, la\u0300 co\u031b s\u01a1\u0309 \u0111\u00ea\u0309 d\u01b0\u0323 ki\u00ea\u0301n v\u00ea\u0300 ta\u0300i chi\u0301nh, marketing, nha\u0302n s\u01b0\u0323\u2026<\/p>\n

Vai tr\u00f2<\/font><\/h3>\n

Vai tro\u0300 cu\u0309a d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o<\/p>\n

Doanh nghi\u1eb9\u0302p hoa\u0323t \u0111\u1ecd\u0302ng trong mo\u0302i tru\u031b\u01a1\u0300ng kinh doanh luo\u0302n thay \u0111\u00f4\u0309i, nhu c\u00e2\u0300u v\u00ea\u0300 sa\u0309n ph\u00e2\u0309m va\u0300 di\u0323ch vu\u0323 cu\u0303ng thay \u0111\u00f4\u0309i theo t\u01b0\u0300ng tha\u0301ng. K\u00ea\u0301t qua\u0309 cu\u0309a d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o se\u0303 co\u0301 vai tro\u0300 \u0111a\u0301ng k\u00ea\u0309 \u0111\u00f4\u0301i v\u01a1\u0301i doanh nghi\u1eb9\u0302p, no\u0301 \u0111u\u031b\u01a1\u0323c th\u00ea\u0309 hi\u1eb9\u0302n nhu\u031b sau:<\/p>\n

– La\u0300 ph\u00e2\u0300n thi\u00ea\u0301t y\u00ea\u0301u trong qua\u0309n tri\u0323 sa\u0309n xu\u00e2\u0301t\/ta\u0301c nghi\u1eb9\u0302p, la\u0300 co\u031b s\u01a1\u0309 \u0111\u00ea\u0309 \u0111u\u031ba ra ca\u0301c quy\u00ea\u0301t \u0111i\u0323nh chi\u00ea\u0301n lu\u031b\u01a1\u0323c cu\u0303ng nhu\u031b chi\u00ea\u0301n thu\u1ea1\u0302t cu\u0309a doanh nghi\u1eb9\u0302p.<\/p>\n

– Co\u0301 a\u0309nh hu\u031b\u01a1\u0309ng r\u00e2\u0301t l\u01a1\u0301n \u0111\u00ea\u0301n hi\u1eb9\u0302u qua\u0309 hoa\u0323ch \u0111i\u0323nh va\u0300 th\u01b0\u0323c hi\u1eb9\u0302n k\u00ea\u0301 hoa\u0323ch sa\u0309n xu\u00e2\u0301t cu\u0303ng nhu\u031b ca\u0301c k\u00ea\u0301 hoa\u0323ch b\u1ecd\u0302 ph\u1ea1\u0302n kha\u0301c cu\u0309a doanh nghi\u1eb9\u0302p.<\/p>\n

– Giu\u0301p doanh nghi\u1eb9\u0302p chu\u0309 \u0111\u1ecd\u0302ng trong vi\u1eb9\u0302c \u0111a\u0301p \u01b0\u0301ng c\u00e2\u0300u, kho\u0302ng bo\u0309 so\u0301t co\u031b h\u1ecd\u0302i kinh doanh.<\/p>\n

– Giu\u0301p ca\u0301c nha\u0300 qua\u0309n tri\u0323 doanh nghi\u1eb9\u0302p co\u0301 k\u00ea\u0301 hoa\u0323ch s\u01b0\u0309 du\u0323ng h\u01a1\u0323p l\u00ed va\u0300 co\u0301 hi\u1eb9\u0302u qua\u0309 ca\u0301c ngu\u00f4\u0300n l\u01b0\u0323c.<\/p>\n

– Cung c\u00e2\u0301p co\u031b s\u01a1\u0309 quan tro\u0323ng \u0111\u00ea\u0309 ph\u00f4\u0301i k\u00ea\u0301t h\u01a1\u0323p hoa\u0323t \u0111\u1ecd\u0302ng gi\u01b0\u0303a ca\u0301c b\u1ecd\u0302 ph\u1ea1\u0302n trong toa\u0300n doanh nghi\u1eb9\u0302p.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00ea\u0309 hoa\u0323t \u0111\u1ecd\u0302ng sa\u0309n xu\u00e2\u0301t kinh doanh \u00f4\u0309n \u0111i\u0323nh, ca\u0301c ngu\u00f4\u0300n l\u01b0\u0323c \u0111u\u031b\u01a1\u0323c cung c\u00e2\u0301p \u0111\u00e2\u0300y \u0111u\u0309, ki\u0323p th\u01a1\u0300i thi\u0300 \u0111o\u0300i ho\u0309i vi\u1eb9\u0302c d\u01b0\u0323 ba\u0301o cu\u0309a Doanh nghi\u1eb9\u0302p pha\u0309i tu\u031bo\u031bng \u0111\u00f4\u0301i chi\u0301nh xa\u0301c va\u0300 pha\u0309i \u0111a\u0309m ba\u0309o ti\u0301nh lie\u0302n tu\u0323c.<\/p>\n

(T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o: Qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb t\u00e1c nghi\u1ec7p, Trung t\u00e2m \u0111\u00e0o t\u1ea1o t\u1eeb xa, \u0110H Kinh t\u1ebf Qu\u1ed1c d\u00e2n)<\/i><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Forecasting) l\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 ngh\u1ec7 thu\u1eadt ti\u00ean \u0111o\u00e1n c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 vi\u1ec7c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ebd c\u00f3 vai tr\u00f2 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi doanh nghi\u1ec7p.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[416],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29251"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29251"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29251\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29251"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29251"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29251"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}