{"id":29916,"date":"2023-12-07T08:47:31","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T08:47:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/li-thuyet-ki-vong-thien-lech-biased-expectations-theory-la-gi.html"},"modified":"2023-12-23T06:11:01","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T23:11:01","slug":"li-thuyet-ki-vong-thien-lech-biased-expectations-theory-la-gi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/li-thuyet-ki-vong-thien-lech-biased-expectations-theory-la-gi.html","title":{"rendered":"L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft k\u00ec v\u1ecdng thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch (Biased Expectations Theory) l\u00e0 g\u00ec?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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(H\u00ecnh minh h\u1ecda: drakerecording)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft k\u00ec v\u1ecdng thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft k\u00ec v\u1ecdng thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch <\/b>trong ti\u1ebfng Anh l\u00e0 Biased Expectations Theory<\/b>.<\/p>\n

L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft k\u00ec v\u1ecdng thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch<\/b> l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft cho r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t s\u1ebd ngang b\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi t\u1ed5ng k\u00ec v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

Trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i, n\u00f3 l\u00e0 l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft cho r\u1eb1ng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i k\u00ec h\u1ea1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c giao v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai s\u1ebd b\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 giao ngay cho ng\u00e0y \u0111\u00f3, mi\u1ec5n l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3\u00a0ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro. <\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft k\u00ec v\u1ecdng thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch cho r\u1eb1ng, h\u00ecnh d\u1ea1ng c\u1ee7a \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch b\u1ecf qua c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng. V\u00e0 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac k\u00ec h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u1ec9 xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb k\u00ec v\u1ecdng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. <\/p>\n

N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t\u00a0\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh t\u1eeb k\u00ec v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u00e0 t\u1eeb ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 cao h\u01a1n do y\u00eau c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 mu\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu c\u00f3 k\u00ec h\u1ea1n d\u00e0i h\u01a1n. <\/p>\n

C\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft k\u00ec v\u1ecdng thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch<\/font><\/h3>\n

Hai l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft k\u00ec v\u1ecdng thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn l\u00e0 l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft \u01b0a th\u00edch thanh kho\u1ea3n v\u00e0 l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u01b0u ti\u00ean. L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft \u01b0a th\u00edch thanh kho\u1ea3n cho r\u1eb1ng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u00f3 ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro. L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u01b0u ti\u00ean cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n kh\u00e1c nhau kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed3ng nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro cho m\u1ed7i ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n. <\/p>\n

L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft \u01b0a th\u00edch thanh kho\u1ea3n<\/b><\/p>\n

Gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n, l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft \u01b0a th\u00edch thanh kho\u1ea3n cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1ebd y\u00eau c\u1ea7u m\u1ed9t t\u1ec9 su\u1ea5t sinh l\u1eddi cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n c\u00f3 k\u00ec h\u1ea1n d\u00e0i.<\/p>\n

L\u00ed do l\u00e0 v\u00ec c\u00e1c ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n c\u00f3 th\u1eddi gian n\u1eafm gi\u1eef c\u00e0ng d\u00e0i th\u00ec c\u00f3 r\u1ee7i ro c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn. B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3 trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n c\u00e1c nh\u00e2n t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 nh\u01b0 nhau, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u00edch \u01b0a th\u00edch n\u1eafm gi\u1eef ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n c\u00f3 t\u00ednh thanh kho\u1ea3n cao kh\u00e1c.<\/p>\n

T\u1ec9 su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n y\u00eau c\u1ea7u l\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro ho\u1eb7c ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 thanh kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1edfi s\u1ef1 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u1eefa l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 k\u00ec h\u1ea1n d\u00e0i h\u01a1n v\u00e0 trung b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn. Sau \u0111\u00f3, t\u1ec9 gi\u00e1 k\u00ec h\u1ea1n ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh c\u1ea3 k\u00ec v\u1ecdng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro s\u1ebd t\u0103ng theo th\u1eddi h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu.<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ed1c l\u00ean, ngay c\u1ea3 khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i ho\u1eb7c gi\u1ea3m m\u1ed9t ch\u00fat. B\u1edfi v\u00ec ch\u00fang c\u00f3 ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t k\u00ec h\u1ea1n s\u1ebd l\u00e0 \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch v\u1ec1 k\u00ec v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n

Theo l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t \u01b0u ti\u00ean cho c\u00e1c ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n c\u00f3 th\u1eddi h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ng\u1eafn v\u00e0 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng n\u1eafm gi\u1eef nh\u1eefng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n khi\u1ebfn h\u1ecd c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 ch\u1ecbu r\u1ee7i ro v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u1edf m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 cao h\u01a1n. \u0110\u1ec3 thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 mua ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c ph\u00ed ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp cho c\u00e1c r\u1ee7i ro cao h\u01a1n kia.<\/p>\n

L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft \u01b0a th\u00edch thanh kho\u1ea3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1eaft g\u1eb7p trong l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu, trong \u0111\u00f3 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 thanh kho\u1ea3n th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n v\u00e0 c\u00f3 r\u1ee7i ro l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. N\u00ean tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu.<\/p>\n

L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u01b0u ti\u00ean<\/b><\/p>\n

Gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft \u01b0a th\u00edch thanh kho\u1ea3n, l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u01b0u ti\u00ean kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng, \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh k\u00ec v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro. Tuy nhi\u00ean, l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft b\u00e1c b\u1ecf quan \u0111i\u1ec3m r\u1eb1ng, ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u0103ng l\u00ean khi \u0111\u00e1o h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u01b0u ti\u00ean qui \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 thay th\u1ebf ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o cho nhau. V\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 \u01b0u ti\u00ean \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t trong hai tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu, h\u01a1n l\u00e0 c\u00e1i c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu th\u00edch m\u1ed9t ph\u00e2n kh\u00fac th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac k\u00ec h\u1ea1n ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ecdn c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 n\u1ee3 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n so v\u1edbi tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n c\u00f3 c\u00f9ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1ebd s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng mua m\u1ed9t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu c\u00f3 k\u00ec h\u1ea1n kh\u00e1c, ch\u1ec9 khi h\u1ecd ki\u1ebfm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u01b0a th\u00edch c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. Ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n, c\u00e1c tr\u00e1i ch\u1ee7 th\u00edch n\u1eafm gi\u1eef ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n do s\u1ee3 nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, th\u00ec s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n n\u1ebfu l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf v\u1ec1 l\u1ee3i t\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3.<\/p>\n

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(Theo Investopedia<\/i>)<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft k\u00ec v\u1ecdng thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Biased Expectations Theory) l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft cho r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t s\u1ebd ngang b\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi t\u1ed5ng k\u00ec v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[417],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29916"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29916"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29916\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29916"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29916"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29916"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}