{"id":30103,"date":"2023-12-07T08:57:24","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T08:57:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/li-thuyet-gau-vay-cho-thi-truong-hemline-theory-la-gi-mot-vai-chi-so-kinh-te-khac-thuong.html"},"modified":"2023-12-23T06:11:43","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T23:11:43","slug":"li-thuyet-gau-vay-cho-thi-truong-hemline-theory-la-gi-mot-vai-chi-so-kinh-te-khac-thuong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/li-thuyet-gau-vay-cho-thi-truong-hemline-theory-la-gi-mot-vai-chi-so-kinh-te-khac-thuong.html","title":{"rendered":"L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft g\u1ea5u v\u00e1y cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (Hemline Theory) l\u00e0 g\u00ec? M\u1ed9t v\u00e0i ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00e1c th\u01b0\u1eddng"},"content":{"rendered":"
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(\u1ea2nh minh h\u1ecda: Les Anderson\/Unsplash)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft g\u1ea5u v\u00e1y cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft g\u1ea5u v\u00e1y cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/b> trong ti\u1ebfng Anh l\u00e0 Hemline Theory<\/b> ho\u1eb7c skirt length theory<\/b>.<\/p>\n

L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft g\u1ea5u v\u00e1y cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/b> l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u00fd ki\u1ebfn k\u00ec qu\u1eb7c cho r\u1eb1ng, chi\u1ec1u d\u00e0i v\u00e1y c\u1ee7a ph\u1ee5 n\u1eef l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Theo l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft, n\u1ebfu v\u00e1y ng\u1eafn \u0111ang ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn, th\u00ec c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00ean. N\u1ebfu v\u00e1y d\u00e0i h\u01a1n \u0111ang th\u1ecbnh h\u00e0nh trong gi\u1edbi th\u1eddi trang, th\u00ec c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111ang \u0111i xu\u1ed1ng. L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft g\u1ea5u v\u00e1y c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 “ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 g\u1ea5u v\u00e1y” ho\u1eb7c l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft “l\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ea7u g\u1ed1i, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u00e1 l\u00ean” (bare knees, bull market).<\/p>\n

\u00dd ki\u1ebfn \u0111\u1eb1ng sau l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft g\u1ea5u v\u00e1y l\u00e0 v\u00e1y ng\u1eafn h\u01a1n c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n trong th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m m\u00e0 ni\u1ec1m tin v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ph\u1ea5n kh\u00edch c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng t\u0103ng cao, c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111ang t\u0103ng. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng v\u00e1y d\u00e0i s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u01b0a chu\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n trong th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta e ng\u1ea1i v\u00e0 u \u00e1m n\u00f3i chung, th\u00ec cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 \u0111ang c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng xu\u1ed1ng gi\u00e1.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u0110\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1925 b\u1edfi George Taylor c\u1ee7a tr\u01b0\u1eddng Wharton School of Business, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 g\u1ea5u v\u00e1y (Hemline Index) \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t r\u1eb1ng, g\u1ea5u v\u00e1y cao h\u01a1n khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, v\u00e1y ng\u1eafn \u0111ang th\u1ecbnh h\u00e0nh v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1990, khi bong b\u00f3ng c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 \u0111ang gia t\u0103ng.\u00a0<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft g\u1ea5u v\u00e1y<\/font><\/h3>\n

M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u00e2m th\u1ea7m tin v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, nh\u01b0ng ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nghi\u00eam t\u00fac th\u00ec v\u1eabn \u01b0a chu\u1ed9ng c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf h\u01a1n l\u00e0 l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft g\u1ea5u v\u00e1y. Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft g\u1ea5u v\u00e1y th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean hai \u0111i\u1ec3m trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

V\u00e0o nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1920, s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn d\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi k\u00ec t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng v\u1ec1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n cho ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn d\u00e2n s\u1ed1. Ch\u00ednh \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1ea1o hi\u1ec3m m\u1edbi trong t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 gi\u1ea3i tr\u00ed v\u00e0 th\u1eddi trang. Th\u1eddi trang c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 g\u00e2y x\u00f4n xao x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp k\u1ec9 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 v\u00e1y ng\u1eafn tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ea7u g\u1ed1i, tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed1t th\u1ecbnh th\u00e0nh.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Sau \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 “S\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n ph\u1ed1 Wall n\u0103m 1929” (Crash of 1929) v\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c\u00a0\u0110\u1ea1i kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng, ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 suy y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c m\u1ed1t th\u1eddi trang m\u1edbi, v\u00e0 quay l\u1ea1i ki\u1ec3u th\u1eddi trang r\u1ebb v\u00e0 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n h\u01a1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3.\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/h3>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1980 khi nh\u1eefng chi\u1ebfc v\u00e1y ng\u1eafn (mini-skirts) tr\u1edf n\u00ean ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c tri\u1ec7u ph\u00fa \u0111i k\u00e8m v\u1edbi\u00a0kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc Reagan. Con l\u1eafc c\u1ee7a th\u1eddi trang \u0111\u00e3 quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi v\u00e1y d\u00e0i v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 80, g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 tr\u00f9ng kh\u1edbp v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n n\u0103m 1987. Tuy nhi\u00ean, th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 c\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t nghi v\u1ea5n, ch\u1ee9 ch\u01b0a n\u00f3i \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1ng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng.\u00a0<\/p>\n

M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t lu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec3m bi\u1ec7n h\u1ed9 xung quanh c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u0103ng t\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1eddi trang t\u00e1o b\u1ea1o h\u01a1n, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t lu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m theo.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00e1c th\u01b0\u1eddng<\/font><\/h3>\n

M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o kh\u00e1c \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 x\u01b0\u1edbng:<\/p>\n

– \u0110\u1ed3 l\u00f3t nam<\/i>: Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed3 l\u00f3t nam l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o, t\u1eeb l\u00e2u \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u01b0a chu\u1ed9ng b\u1edfi ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a Fed, Alan Greenspan. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1t nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed3 l\u00f3t nam. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng, s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m trong doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed3 l\u00f3t c\u1ee7a nam gi\u1edbi cho th\u1ea5y t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng chung c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf k\u00e9m, c\u00f2n s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng trong doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed3 l\u00f3t d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n.\u00a0<\/p>\n

– C\u1eaft t\u00f3c<\/i>: Ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u00e1ng l\u1eadp Paul Mitchell, John Paul Dejoria g\u1ee3i \u00fd r\u1eb1ng trong th\u1eddi k\u00ec kinh t\u1ebf t\u1ed1t, kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ti\u1ec7m c\u1eaft t\u00f3c c\u1ee9 sau 6 tu\u1ea7n, trong khi th\u1eddi gian x\u1ea5u th\u00ec t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t c\u1eaft t\u00f3c gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng c\u1ee9 sau 8 tu\u1ea7n.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0– Gi\u1eb7t kh\u00f4<\/i>: M\u1ed9t l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Greenspan y\u00eau th\u00edch kh\u00e1c, ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng gi\u1eb7t kh\u00f4 gi\u1ea3m trong th\u1eddi k\u00ec kinh t\u1ebf t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7, v\u00ec m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ec9 mang qu\u1ea7n \u00e1o \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ti\u1ec7m gi\u1eb7t kh\u00f4 khi h\u1ecd th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u1ea7n, b\u1edfi ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch eo h\u1eb9p.<\/p>\n

\u00a0– Th\u1ee9c \u0103n nhanh<\/i>: Nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch tin r\u1eb1ng trong th\u1eddi k\u00ec suy tho\u00e1i t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i th\u1ee9c \u0103n nhanh c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 r\u1ebb. C\u00f2n khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111i l\u00ean, c\u00e1c kh\u00e1ch quen c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u1eadp trung mua th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m l\u00e0nh m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 d\u00f9ng b\u01b0u\u00e3 trong c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 h\u00e0ng sang tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n.\u00a0<\/p>\n

(Theo Investopedia<\/i>)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft g\u1ea5u v\u00e1y cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Hemline Theory) l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u00fd ki\u1ebfn k\u00ec qu\u1eb7c cho r\u1eb1ng, chi\u1ec1u d\u00e0i v\u00e1y c\u1ee7a ph\u1ee5 n\u1eef l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[417],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30103"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30103"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30103\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30103"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30103"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30103"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}