{"id":30117,"date":"2023-12-07T08:58:18","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T08:58:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/qui-dau-tu-ltcm-long-term-capital-management-la-gi-nguyen-nhan-sup-do.html"},"modified":"2023-12-23T06:11:58","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T23:11:58","slug":"qui-dau-tu-ltcm-long-term-capital-management-la-gi-nguyen-nhan-sup-do","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/qui-dau-tu-ltcm-long-term-capital-management-la-gi-nguyen-nhan-sup-do.html","title":{"rendered":"Qu\u0129 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 LTCM (Long-Term Capital Management) l\u00e0 g\u00ec? Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5"},"content":{"rendered":"
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(H\u00ecnh minh h\u1ecda: Abbreviations)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Qu\u0129 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 LTCM<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

LTCM<\/b> l\u00e0 vi\u1ebft t\u1eaft c\u1ee7a Long-Term Capital Management <\/b>(t\u1ea1m d\u1ecbch l\u00e0 Qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed v\u1ed1n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n<\/b>).<\/p>\n

Long-Term Capital Management<\/b> l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t qu\u0129 ph\u00f2ng h\u1ed9 l\u1edbn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o b\u1edfi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf t\u1eebng \u0111o\u1ea1t gi\u1ea3i th\u01b0\u1edfng Nobel v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u01b0\u01a1ng nh\u00e2n n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng \u1edf Ph\u1ed1 Wall.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00e0nh l\u1eadp v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1994, c\u00f4ng ty thu h\u00fat h\u01a1n 1 t\u1ec9 USD v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, v\u1edbi l\u1eddi h\u1ee9a h\u1eb9n v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c\u00a0kinh doanh ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1\u00a0(Arbitrage), c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi trong h\u00e0nh vi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0, v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft, gi\u1ea3m m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro xu\u1ed1ng 0.<\/p>\n

Th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a LTCM l\u00e0 nh\u1edd v\u00e0o danh ti\u1ebfng xu\u1ea5t s\u1eafc c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee7 s\u1edf h\u1eefu.\u00a0Ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u00e1ng l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u01b0\u01a1ng nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a Salomon Brothers, John Meriwether.\u00a0C\u00e1c c\u1ed5 \u0111\u00f4ng ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc t\u1eebng \u0111o\u1ea1t gi\u1ea3i Nobel, Myron Scholes v\u00e0 Robert Merton.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3 10 tri\u1ec7u USD \u0111\u1ec3 tham gia qu\u0129.\u00a0H\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e9p r\u00fat ti\u1ec1n trong ba n\u0103m ho\u1eb7c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed h\u1ecfi v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a LTCM.\u00a0M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf, m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u1eabn k\u00eau g\u1ecdi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.\u00a0LTCM t\u1ef1 h\u00e0o v\u1ec1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn h\u00e0ng n\u0103m ngo\u1ea1n m\u1ee5c, 40% trong n\u0103m 1995 v\u00e0 1996. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, v\u00e0o n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, c\u00f4ng ty \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 27%.<\/p>\n

LTCM th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng t\u1ef1 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 m\u00ecnh kh\u1ecfi h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c r\u1ee7i ro t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ch\u00e2u \u00c1 n\u0103m 1997. N\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 mang l\u1ea1i cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 17,1% l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trong n\u0103m \u0111\u00f3.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 9\/1998, c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ea7y r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn n\u00f3 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 ph\u00e1 s\u1ea3n. Qui m\u00f4 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 qu\u00e1 l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec3 g\u00e2y ra th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i. Do \u0111\u00f3, C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o l\u00e3nh.<\/p>\n

Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n g\u00e2y ra s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5<\/font><\/h3>\n

Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o v\u00e0o c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/b><\/p>\n

LTCM b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi h\u01a1n 1 t\u1ec9 USD t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n ban \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0 t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o giao d\u1ecbch tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu. V\u1edbi \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng ban \u0111\u1ea7u, chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a qu\u0129 l\u00e0 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5, li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n. N\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n giao d\u1ecbch cao ho\u1eb7c th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ef1c th\u00ec trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n gi\u00e1 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ef1c v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ki\u1ebfm l\u1eddi d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y. LTCM s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng nh\u1eefng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 cao v\u00e0 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ef1c, sau \u0111\u00f3 ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh c\u00e1c b\u01b0\u1edbc c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 kinh doanh ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1.\u00a0<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 giao d\u1ecbch ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 l\u00e0, s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 trong gi\u00e1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1edf ra c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i giao d\u1ecbch ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n t\u1ea1i gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb l\u00fac \u0111\u00f3, kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb m\u00e0 ch\u00fang s\u1ebd s\u1edbm tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh, khi m\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7t ra.\u00a0<\/p>\n

LTCM c\u0169ng x\u1eed l\u00ed c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch ho\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed5i l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c trao \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n thanh to\u00e1n l\u00e3i cho m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n kh\u00e1c, d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n ti\u1ec1n v\u1ed1n ch\u00ednh, gi\u1eefa hai \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c. Th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed5i l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t bao g\u1ed3m thay \u0111\u1ed5i l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh cho l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea3 n\u1ed5i ho\u1eb7c ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u r\u1ee7i ro v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t chung.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Do s\u1ef1 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch nh\u1ecf trong c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i kinh doanh ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1, LTCM \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3i t\u1ef1 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng ch\u00ednh n\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ebfm ti\u1ec1n. T\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ec9nh cao c\u1ee7a qu\u0129 n\u0103m 1998, LTCM c\u00f3 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n x\u1ea5p x\u1ec9 5 t\u1ec9 USD, ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t h\u01a1n 100 t\u1ec9 USD v\u00e0 c\u00f3 c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed s\u1edf h\u1eefu t\u1ed5ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb h\u01a1n 1.000 t\u1ec9 USD. V\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00f3, LTCM c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 vay h\u01a1n 120 t\u1ec9 USD t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/b><\/p>\n

Khi Nga v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 8\/1998, LTCM \u0111ang gi\u1eef m\u1ed9t v\u1ecb th\u1ebf quan tr\u1ecdng trong tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Nga (GKO). M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 m\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng tr\u0103m tri\u1ec7u \u0111\u00f4 la m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y, c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh m\u00e1y t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a LTCM khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb r\u1eb1ng, h\u1ecd n\u00ean gi\u1eef v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ebfn ng\u00e0y 31\/8,\u00a0ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 trung b\u00ecnh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p Dow Jones\u00a0\u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m 13%. Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u00ecm n\u01a1i \u1ea5n n\u00e1u trong tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c, khi\u1ebfn\u00a0l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t\u00a0d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n gi\u1ea3m h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 30\/9\/1998.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Do \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y cao c\u1ee7a LTCM b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5.\u00a0Cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 8\/1998, n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t 50% gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb\u00a0\u00a0kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0\u00a0v\u1ed1n\u00a0c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.\u00a0V\u00ec r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng v\u00e0 qu\u0129 h\u01b0u tr\u00ed \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o LTCM, c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 \u0111e d\u1ecda s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea9y h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft trong s\u1ed1 h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ebfn b\u1edd v\u1ef1c ph\u00e1 s\u1ea3n.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Khi thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i l\u00ean t\u1edbi g\u1ea7n 4 t\u1ec9 USD, ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 li\u00ean bang M\u1ef9 lo ng\u1ea1i r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 s\u1eafp x\u1ea3y ra c\u1ee7a LTCM s\u1ebd g\u00e2y ra m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh l\u1edbn h\u01a1n v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 d\u00e0n x\u1ebfp m\u1ed9t g\u00f3i c\u1ee9u tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u1ea5n an th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. M\u1ed9t qu\u0129 cho vay 3,65 t\u1ec9 USD \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra, cho ph\u00e9p LTCM t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i tr\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 thanh l\u00ed m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch c\u00f3 tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2000.\u00a0<\/p>\n

(T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o:\u00a0Investopedia, thebalance,\u00a0vietstock<\/i>)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t qu\u0129 ph\u00f2ng h\u1ed9 l\u1edbn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o b\u1edfi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf t\u1eebng \u0111o\u1ea1t gi\u1ea3i th\u01b0\u1edfng Nobel v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u01b0\u01a1ng nh\u00e2n n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng \u1edf Ph\u1ed1 Wall.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[417],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30117"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30117"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30117\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30117"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30117"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30117"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}