{"id":30318,"date":"2023-12-07T09:09:58","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T09:09:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/li-thuyet-buoc-di-ngau-nhien-random-walk-theory-la-gi.html"},"modified":"2023-12-23T06:12:44","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T23:12:44","slug":"li-thuyet-buoc-di-ngau-nhien-random-walk-theory-la-gi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/li-thuyet-buoc-di-ngau-nhien-random-walk-theory-la-gi.html","title":{"rendered":"L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean (Random Walk Theory) l\u00e0 g\u00ec?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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H\u00ecnh minh h\u1ecda<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean (Random Walk Theory)<\/font><\/h2>\n

\u0110\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a<\/b><\/p>\n

Random Walk Theory<\/b> t\u1ea1m d\u1ecbch ra ti\u1ebfng Vi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean<\/b>.<\/p>\n

B\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean l\u00e0 b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ti\u00ean \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.\u00a0L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean<\/i> ch\u1ec9 ra nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp v\u1edbi nhau.<\/p>\n

Do \u0111\u00f3, l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u1eefng chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu hay xu h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a n\u00f3.<\/p>\n

N\u00f3i t\u00f3m l\u1ea1i, l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i<\/span> ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc, khi\u1ebfn cho t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

Hi\u1ec3u v\u1ec1 l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean<\/font><\/h3>\n

– L\u00ed<\/span> thuy\u1ebft b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i<\/span> ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean tin r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ecbu r\u1ee7i ro t\u0103ng th\u00eam v\u00ec kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng hay gi\u1ea3m c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai l\u00e0 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng nhau. Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 theo tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1i l\u00ed\u00a0thuy\u1ebft b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean tin r\u1eb1ng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra v\u00ec lu\u00f4n c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro t\u0103ng th\u00eam, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 bi\u1ebft tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n

– L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean cho r\u1eb1ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u0129<\/span> thu\u1eadt hay ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0m l\u00e3ng ph\u00ed th\u1eddi gian c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. B\u1edfi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u0129 thu\u1eadt th\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ec9 ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh mua ho\u1eb7c b\u00e1n ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n sau khi c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u00e3 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t giai \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3. T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn ph\u00e2n t\u00edch sai l\u1ea7m do s\u1ef1 y\u1ebfu k\u00e9m trong vi\u1ec7c thu th\u1eadp tin t\u1ee9c ho\u1eb7c hi\u1ec3u sai th\u00f4ng tin.<\/p>\n

– C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00ea b\u00ecnh l\u00ed<\/span> thuy\u1ebft b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean cho r\u1eb1ng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu duy tr\u00ec xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 theo th\u1eddi gian. N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch c\u1ea9n th\u1eadn l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m mua v\u00e0o v\u00e0 b\u00e1n ra \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3.<\/p>\n

Li\u00ean h\u1ec7 th\u1ef1c ti\u1ec5n<\/font><\/h3>\n

L\u00ed<\/span> thuy\u1ebft b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i<\/span> ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 g\u00e2y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 ch\u00fa \u00fd v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1973 khi t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 Burton Malkiel \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u0111\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef n\u00e0y trong cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch “A Random Walk Down Wall Street”. Cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn v\u1ec1\u00a0gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 (EMH).<\/p>\n

Theo\u00a0gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lu\u00f4n giao d\u1ecbch v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb h\u1ee3p l\u00ed c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 mua\u00a0c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu\u00a0b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p (c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu d\u01b0\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb) ho\u1eb7c b\u00e1n c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ed5i v\u1ed3ng (c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 cao).<\/p>\n

N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y s\u1ebd ng\u0103n c\u1ea3n b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 ai khai th\u00e1c c\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 sai v\u00ec s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 l\u00e0 ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 l\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n

(T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o: Investopedia)<\/i><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n L\u00ed thuy\u1ebft b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Random Walk Theory) tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc, khi\u1ebfn cho t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[417],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30318"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30318"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30318\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30318"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30318"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30318"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}