{"id":31076,"date":"2023-12-07T10:19:00","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T10:19:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/thuyet-hon-mang-chaos-theory-la-gi-thuyet-hon-mang-va-thi-truong.html"},"modified":"2023-12-23T07:24:55","modified_gmt":"2023-12-23T00:24:55","slug":"thuyet-hon-mang-chaos-theory-la-gi-thuyet-hon-mang-va-thi-truong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/thuyet-hon-mang-chaos-theory-la-gi-thuyet-hon-mang-va-thi-truong.html","title":{"rendered":"Thuy\u1ebft h\u1ed7n mang (Chaos Theory) l\u00e0 g\u00ec? Thuy\u1ebft h\u1ed7n mang v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng"},"content":{"rendered":"
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H\u00ecnh minh h\u1ecda. Ngu\u1ed3n: ChaosTheoryngp)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Thuy\u1ebft h\u1ed7n mang<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

Thuy\u1ebft h\u1ed7n mang<\/b> hay thuy\u1ebft h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n<\/b> trong ti\u1ebfng Anh l\u00e0 Chaos theory<\/b>.<\/p>\n

Thuy\u1ebft h\u1ed7n mang<\/b> l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p v\u00e0 g\u00e2y tranh c\u00e3i nh\u1eb1m t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch s\u1ef1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn. Thuy\u1ebft h\u1ed7n mang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi xem x\u00e9t \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch s\u1ef1 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n ho\u1eb7c ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean, v\u00e0 l\u00ed thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho\u00a0th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh.\u00a0<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng h\u1ed7n mang c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trong m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ngu\u1ed3n g\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a thuy\u1ebft h\u1ed7n mang<\/font><\/h3>\n

Th\u00ed nghi\u1ec7m th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean trong thuy\u1ebft h\u1ed7n mang<\/b> \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n b\u1edfi m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u1ecdc,\u00a0Edward Lorenz. Lorenz \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft.\u00a0N\u0103m 1961, Lorenz mu\u1ed1n t\u1ea1o l\u1ea1i chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 b\u1eb1ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh m\u00e1y t\u00ednh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean 12 bi\u1ebfn bao g\u1ed3m t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 gi\u00f3 v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9.\u00a0<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn n\u00e0y, ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1ebd l\u00ean bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m theo th\u1eddi gian.\u00a0Lorenz \u0111\u00e3 l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1961. Tuy nhi\u00ean, v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y n\u00e0y, \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m tr\u00f2n c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb bi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh ba ch\u1eef s\u1ed1 th\u1eadp ph\u00e2n thay v\u00ec s\u00e1u.\u00a0S\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u1ecf b\u00e9 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m thay \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a hai th\u00e1ng m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft.<\/p>\n

Do \u0111\u00f3, Lorenz \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ebfn k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 chung.\u00a0Thuy\u1ebft h\u1ed7n mang kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 c\u1ed1 nh\u1ecf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng li\u00ean quan.<\/p>\n

Thuy\u1ebft h\u1ed7n mang v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/font><\/h3>\n

C\u00f3 hai ng\u1ee5y bi\u1ec7n ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n.\u00a0M\u1ed9t d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean l\u00ed<\/span> thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n v\u00e0 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 100% v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc. Hai\u00a0l\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u1edf m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.\u00a0N\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng, l\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch l\u1edbn v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 lu\u00f4n ki\u1ebfm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn?<\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 th\u1eadt l\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p v\u00e0 h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n, v\u00e0 h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang c\u00f3 c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean.\u00a0D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ec9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u1edf m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0 Lorenz \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh, c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng h\u1ed7n mang ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u1ecf v\u00e0 ch\u00fang c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 m\u1ed9t h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng, \u0111\u1ea9y n\u00f3 ra xa kh\u1ecfi tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng c\u1ee7a n\u00f3.\u00a0Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 nh\u01b0 hai ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c v\u00f2ng l\u1eb7p nh\u00e2n qu\u1ea3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh kh\u00e1c nhau c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n.\u00a0M\u1ed9t v\u00f2ng ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i t\u00edch c\u1ef1c s\u1ebd t\u1ef1 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n n\u00f3.\u00a0<\/p>\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5, m\u1ed9t hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c trong m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn l\u00e0m t\u0103ng bi\u1ebfn kh\u00e1c, \u0111\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3t n\u00f3, c\u0169ng l\u00e0m t\u0103ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean.\u00a0\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng theo c\u1ea5p s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n trong h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng, \u0111\u01b0a n\u00f3 ra kh\u1ecfi tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng v\u00e0 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng (m\u1ed9t\u00a0bong b\u00f3ng).\u00a0Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, m\u1ed9t v\u00f2ng ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i theo h\u01b0\u1edbng ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 thi\u00ean tai, \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea5t ho\u1eb7c l\u0169 l\u1ee5t c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n

Trong t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, thuy\u1ebft h\u1ed7n mang l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u1ec3\u00a0\u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o an ninh.\u00a0S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng thuy\u1ebft h\u1ed7n mang, m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 sau: \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch (nh\u01b0 nghi ng\u1edd, mong mu\u1ed1n ho\u1eb7c hi v\u1ecdng, t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 phi tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh v\u00e0 ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p), thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ec1 kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, gia t\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a thay \u0111\u1ed5i, v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1eb1ng sau nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i.<\/p>\n

Trong khi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 l\u00ed<\/span> lu\u1eadn duy tr\u00ec quan \u0111i\u1ec3m r\u1eb1ng thuy\u1ebft h\u1ed7n mang<\/b>\u00a0c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u0103ng hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t \u1edf \u0111\u00f3, vi\u1ec7c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng thuy\u1ebft h\u1ed7n mang\u00a0v\u00e0o t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u1eabn c\u00f2n g\u00e2y tranh c\u00e3i.<\/p>\n

(Theo Investopedia.com<\/i>)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n Thuy\u1ebft h\u1ed7n mang (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Chaos theory) cho r\u1eb1ng t\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh th\u1eb3ng b\u0103ng m\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta cho l\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng nhi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ecdi s\u1ef1 v\u1eadt l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng h\u1ec1 c\u00f3 th\u1eadt.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[417],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31076"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31076"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31076\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31076"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31076"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31076"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}