{"id":31141,"date":"2023-12-07T10:22:37","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T10:22:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/thi-truong-hieu-qua-efficient-market-trong-chung-khoan-la-gi.html"},"modified":"2023-12-23T07:25:08","modified_gmt":"2023-12-23T00:25:08","slug":"thi-truong-hieu-qua-efficient-market-trong-chung-khoan-la-gi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/thi-truong-hieu-qua-efficient-market-trong-chung-khoan-la-gi.html","title":{"rendered":"Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 (Efficient market) trong ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n l\u00e0 g\u00ec?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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H\u00ecnh minh ho\u1ea1 (Ngu\u1ed3n: adamsmith)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3<\/b> trong ti\u1ebfng Anh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 efficient market<\/b>.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, tr\u00ean\u00a0th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ed1n, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec3u theo nhi\u1ec1u c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c nhau.<\/p>\n

Fama (1970) cho r\u1eb1ng: “Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u00e0 t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00f3 gi\u00e1 lu\u00f4n ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin s\u1eb5n c\u00f3, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3”.<\/p>\n

Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, Malkiel (1992) l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ed1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 n\u1ebfu n\u00f3 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng tin li\u00ean quan trong vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 th\u00f4ng tin, n\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng do ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 th\u00f4ng tin \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3<\/font><\/h3>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 bao g\u1ed3m nhi\u1ec1u gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft kh\u00e1c nhau, tu\u1ef3 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh c\u1ee7a th\u00f4ng tin trong gi\u00e1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

– Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 d\u1ea1ng y\u1ebfu (weak – form effiency)<\/b>:\u00a0<\/p>\n

M\u1ee9c hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 y\u1ebfu x\u1ea3y ra khi gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng tin trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu v\u00e0 kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng giao d\u1ecbch.<\/p>\n

– Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 trung b\u00ecnh (semi – strong form effiency)<\/b>:\u00a0<\/p>\n

M\u1ee9c hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 n\u00e0y x\u1ea3y ra khi gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng tin c\u00f4ng khai tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng tin qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng tin c\u00f4ng khai tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng tin tr\u00ean b\u1ea3n c\u00e1o b\u1ea1ch c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 trung b\u00ecnh bao tr\u00f9m l\u00ean gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 y\u1ebfu v\u00ec t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng tin tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec1u ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem x\u00e9t c\u00f4ng khai d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 d\u1ea1ng y\u1ebfu nh\u01b0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu, t\u1ec9 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i t\u1ee9c v\u00e0 kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng giao d\u1ecbch.<\/p>\n

– Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 m\u1ea1nh (strong form effiency)<\/b>:\u00a0<\/p>\n

M\u1ee9c hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 m\u1ea1nh x\u1ea3y ra khi m\u1ecdi th\u00f4ng tin \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 v\u00e0o gi\u00e1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 th\u00f4ng tin kh\u00f4ng c\u00f4ng khai, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng tin trong n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 doanh nghi\u1ec7p. Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 d\u1ea1ng m\u1ea1ch l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 d\u1ea1ng y\u1ebfu v\u00e0 d\u1ea1ng trung b\u00ecnh.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea1ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng th\u00eam gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh cho c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 – th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u00e0 t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00f3 gi\u00e1 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng tin c\u00f4ng khai, tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh tr\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o – th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u00e0 t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00f3 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng tin \u0111\u1ec1u mi\u1ec5n ph\u00ed v\u00e0 s\u1eb5n c\u00f3 \u1edf c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3:<\/font><\/h3>\n

– M\u1ecdi th\u00f4ng tin tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec1u nhanh v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c, m\u1ecdi nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ec1u thu nh\u1eadn ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng tin n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

– Khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lu\u00f4n ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh \u0111\u00fang, ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng tin tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn lo\u1ea1i ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111\u00f3.<\/p>\n

– Tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, c\u00e1c ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c mua b\u00e1n, trao \u0111\u1ed5i ngang gi\u00e1 tr\u00ean c\u00e1c s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

Do \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi mua \u00e9p gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ho\u1eb7c th\u1ed5i ph\u1ed3ng m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 khi b\u00e1n (hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00e0m gi\u00e1) ho\u1eb7c c\u00f3 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ebfm l\u1eddi ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch th\u00f4ng qua nghi\u1ec7p v\u1ee5 arbitrage.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia lu\u00f4n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tin t\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1eed c\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi.<\/p>\n

– Gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n t\u0103ng hay gi\u1ea3m do m\u1ed9t nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n duy nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin m\u1edbi xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Do nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin n\u00e0y xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean, kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00ean gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n thay \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3.<\/p>\n

(T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o: Gi\u00e1o tr\u00ecnh Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, , NXB \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Kinh t\u1ebf Qu\u1ed1c d\u00e2n)<\/i><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Efficient market) l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 lu\u00f4n lu\u00f4n ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng tin s\u1eb5n c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[417],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31141"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31141"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31141\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31141"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31141"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31141"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}