{"id":32921,"date":"2023-12-08T02:11:35","date_gmt":"2023-12-08T02:11:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/sai-so-du-bao-forecast-error-la-gi.html"},"modified":"2023-12-23T11:13:45","modified_gmt":"2023-12-23T04:13:45","slug":"sai-so-du-bao-forecast-error-la-gi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/sai-so-du-bao-forecast-error-la-gi.html","title":{"rendered":"Sai s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o (Forecast Error) l\u00e0 g\u00ec?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Sai s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

Sai s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o<\/b> trong ti\u1ebfng Anh l\u00e0 forecast error<\/b>.<\/p>\n

Sai s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o<\/i> l\u00e0 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u1eefa gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ef1c (d\u1eef li\u1ec7u) v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o nh\u1eb1m \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng hay s\u1ef1 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u1ea1i c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m. Sai s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u0169ng nh\u1eb1m gi\u00fap \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o.<\/p>\n

C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c<\/font><\/h3>\n
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M\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 t\u1ed1t khi sai s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o nh\u1ecf. Ngo\u00e0i ra t\u00ednh ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean c\u1ee7a sai s\u1ed1 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t tham s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Th\u1eadt v\u1eady, khi ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta th\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ban \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean; c\u00e1c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n, \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1, ki\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u0169ng \u0111\u1ec1u d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y (ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean, ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i chu\u1ea9n) n\u00ean n\u1ebfu m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00fang th\u00ec sai s\u1ed1 c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3i kh\u00f4ng theo m\u1ed9t chi\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u00e0o c\u1ea3.<\/p>\n

Ti\u00eau ch\u00ed \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1<\/font><\/h3>\n

4 ti\u00eau ch\u00ed \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 sai s\u1ed1 th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng trong th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o nh\u01b0 sau:<\/p>\n

Sai s\u1ed1 tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i trung b\u00ecnh MAE (Mean Absolute Error)<\/b><\/p>\n

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Sai s\u1ed1 b\u00ecnh ph\u01b0\u01a1ng trung b\u00ecnh MSE (Mean Squared Error)<\/b><\/p>\n

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Sai s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i trung b\u00ecnh MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error)<\/b><\/p>\n

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C\u0103n c\u1ee7a sai s\u1ed1 b\u00ecnh ph\u01b0\u01a1ng trung b\u00ecnh RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error)<\/b><\/p>\n

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C\u00e1c ti\u00eau ch\u00ed MAE v\u00e0 MSE v\u00e0 RMSE c\u00f3 \u0111\u1eb7c t\u00ednh, c\u00f4ng n\u0103ng nh\u01b0 nhau v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1eddng cho c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 khi \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1. Tuy nhi\u00ean, chuy\u00ean gia khuy\u1ebfn c\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng n\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb sai s\u1ed1\u00a0\u03b5t <\/sub>\u0111\u1ec1u nhau th\u00ec n\u00ean ch\u1ecdn ti\u00eau ch\u00ed MSE \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, n\u1ebfu c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb sai s\u1ed1 \u03b5t\u00a0<\/sub>qu\u00e1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t th\u00ec n\u00ean ch\u1ecdn ti\u00eau ch\u00ed MAE \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1. Ti\u00eau ch\u00ed RMSE l\u00e0 c\u0103n b\u1eadc 2 c\u1ee7a ti\u00eau ch\u00ed MSE n\u00ean hai ti\u00eau ch\u00ed v\u1ec1 b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t; \u0111i\u1ec1u kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a ti\u00eau ch\u00ed RMSE b\u00e9 h\u01a1n.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ti\u00eau ch\u00ed MAPE gi\u00fap \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 sai s\u1ed1 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i. Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed sai s\u1ed1 trung b\u00ecnh l\u00e0 1 \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb so v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u00e0 100 th\u00ec v\u1eabn l\u00e0 nh\u1ecf (1%). Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, sai s\u1ed1 trung b\u00ecnh 1 \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb so v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u00e0 10 th\u00ec \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 l\u1edbn (10%). V\u1eady n\u00ean khi \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 sai s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng b\u1ed9 s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u kh\u00e1c nhau th\u00ec n\u00ean s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ti\u00eau ch\u00ed MAPE.<\/p>\n

Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t b\u1ed9 s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u nh\u01b0ng \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng nhi\u1ec1u ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o kh\u00e1c nhau th\u00ec kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng ti\u00eau ch\u00ed MAPE v\u00ec t\u00ednh ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p trong t\u00ednh to\u00e1n.\u00a0<\/p>\n

(Theo Gi\u00e1o tr\u00ecnh Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea Doanh nghi\u1ec7p, NXB \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Kinh t\u1ebf qu\u1ed1c d\u00e2n<\/i>)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n Sai s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o (ti\u1ebfng Anh: Forecast Error) l\u00e0 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u1eefa gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ef1c (d\u1eef li\u1ec7u) v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o nh\u1eb1m \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng hay s\u1ef1 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u1ea1i c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[418],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32921"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32921"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32921\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32921"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32921"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32921"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}