{"id":37732,"date":"2023-12-08T23:41:54","date_gmt":"2023-12-08T23:41:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/tri-thong-minh-rui-ro-va-quyet-dinh-thong-minh-ve-mat-cam-xuc-cho-nguoi-thuc-hanh-quan-ly-du-an.html"},"modified":"2023-12-24T21:48:09","modified_gmt":"2023-12-24T14:48:09","slug":"tri-thong-minh-rui-ro-va-quyet-dinh-thong-minh-ve-mat-cam-xuc-cho-nguoi-thuc-hanh-quan-ly-du-an","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/tri-thong-minh-rui-ro-va-quyet-dinh-thong-minh-ve-mat-cam-xuc-cho-nguoi-thuc-hanh-quan-ly-du-an.html","title":{"rendered":"Tr\u00ed th\u00f4ng minh r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u00f4ng minh v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t c\u1ea3m x\u00fac cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u1ef1c h\u00e0nh qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd d\u1ef1 \u00e1n"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\u1ede con ng\u01b0\u1eddi, h\u00e0nh vi thi\u1ebfu l\u00fd tr\u00ed \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 ph\u00e1t sinh t\u1eeb c\u00e1c c\u1ea3m x\u00fac \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u01a1i d\u1eady tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eefng ho\u00e0n c\u1ea3nh \u0111\u1ea7y th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c v\u00e0 c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng (Theo \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc College London, 2006). Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u1ef1c h\u00e0nh qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd d\u1ef1 \u00e1n th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c y\u00eau c\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n trong nh\u1eefng tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p nh\u01b0 v\u1eady v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecbu nh\u1eefng x\u00e1o tr\u1ed9n c\u1ea3m x\u00fac b\u00ean trong v\u00e0 b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i. C\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 \u201cthi\u1ebfu l\u00fd tr\u00ed\u201d kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi \u201cc\u1ea3m x\u00fac\u201d, nh\u01b0ng ch\u00fang th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan v\u1ec1 ng\u00f4n ng\u1eef v\u00e0 v\u0103n h\u00f3a (Lawani, 2016).<\/span><\/p>\n

Hai t\u1eeb n\u00e0y\u00a0tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a r\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c nhau. Thi\u1ebfu l\u00fd tr\u00ed l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng h\u1ee3p l\u00fd ho\u1eb7c m\u1ea5t logic (ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n, t\u00ednh logic ho\u1eb7c b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng kh\u00e1ch quan), trong khi c\u1ea3m x\u00fac l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i b\u1ea3n n\u0103ng t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u1ee7a t\u00e2m tr\u00ed xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb t\u00e2m tr\u1ea1ng, ho\u00e0n c\u1ea3nh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 (Fineman, 2004).<\/span><\/p>\n

Theo c\u00e1ch n\u00f3i c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u01b0\u1eddng, tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 x\u00fac c\u1ea3m c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ti\u1ebfp nh\u1eadn c\u1ea3m x\u00fac c\u1ee7a b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n v\u00e0 c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c, v\u00e0 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n v\u00e0 trong c\u00e1c t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n vi\u1ec7c ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh. V\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i, tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 x\u00fac c\u1ea3m l\u00e0 khai s\u00e1ng c\u1ea3m x\u00fac.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tr\u1edf n\u00ean “th\u00f4ng minh” v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t c\u1ea3m x\u00fac th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u0111\u1ebfn kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u1ea3m x\u00fac c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u00e0 c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u1ebfp theo \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng kh\u00e1c nhau, y\u00eau c\u1ea7u kh\u00e1c nhau v\u00e0 kinh nghi\u1ec7m trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh, tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 x\u00fac c\u1ea3m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Goleman (2004) \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng nh\u1eadn ra c\u1ea3m x\u00fac c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ch\u00fang ta v\u00e0 c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c, \u0111\u1ec3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n v\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u1ea3m x\u00fac t\u1ed1t \u1edf c\u1ea3 b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c. Tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 x\u00fac c\u1ea3m, tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a duy l\u00fd kh\u00f4ng linh ho\u1ea1t, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ec3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh bi\u1ebfn chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9t ng\u1ed9t c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3m x\u00fac khi \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, v\u00e0 t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0<\/p>\n

H\u00ecnh 1 cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n kh\u00f4ng thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i, d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng ch\u1eadm tr\u1ec5 ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9, v\u01b0\u1ee3t chi ph\u00ed, nh\u1eadn ra r\u1ee7i ro b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i, v.v., c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u1ee3i l\u00ean ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ea3m x\u00fac ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c; m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb h\u1ee7y ho\u1ea1i b\u1edfi ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng n\u00e0y v\u00e0, trong s\u1ef1 t\u1ee9c gi\u1eadn ho\u1eb7c \u0111au bu\u1ed3n, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh thi\u1ebfu l\u00fd tr\u00ed nh\u01b0 sa th\u1ea3i c\u00e1c c\u1ed9ng s\u1ef1 ho\u1eb7c r\u1eddi b\u1ecf c\u00f4ng ty. <\/span><\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft, \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n h\u1ee3p l\u00fd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ec3 xem x\u00e9t c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 vi\u1ec7c kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m \u0111i c\u1ea3m x\u00fac. Vi\u1ec7c ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p? Li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 thi kh\u00f4ng? Trong ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn c\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p, m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ho\u1eb7c kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 t\u00ecm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan, tuy nhi\u00ean, m\u1ed9t khi quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean, m\u1ed9t quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u00f4ng minh v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t c\u1ea3m x\u00fac s\u1ebd xem x\u00e9t c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i v\u1edbi b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng, k\u1ebf \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 c\u00e1c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng v\u1ec1 c\u1ea3m x\u00fac \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i \u0111\u1ebfn quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh. Trong m\u1ed9t quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, c\u00e1c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng v\u1ec1 c\u1ea3m x\u00fac \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u00e0 c\u00e1c b\u00ean li\u00ean quan kh\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 xem x\u00e9t trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh s\u1ef1 vi\u1ec7c tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a ra.<\/span><\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfn h\u00f3a \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua b\u1ed9 n\u00e3o c\u1ee7a con ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ki\u1ec1m h\u00e3m ch\u00fang ta, ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 trong ti\u1ec1m th\u1ee9c, ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 s\u1ef1 th\u1eadt trong m\u1ed9t “th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf ch\u1ee7 quan c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n”, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u b\u1edfi nh\u1eefng kinh nghi\u1ec7m c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n t\u00edch l\u0169y tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 qua nh\u1eefng t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i lu\u00f4n c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u1edbi kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn th\u00f4ng qua l\u0103ng k\u00ednh c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng tr\u1ea3i nghi\u1ec7m tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y, ch\u00ednh \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y, v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 “t\u00f4 m\u00e0u” ch\u00fang ta v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t v\u00e0i y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1eb5n. Cho d\u00f9 \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 \u0111\u00fang hay sai \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta v\u1ec1 b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh.<\/span><\/p>\n

Do \u0111\u00f3, theo l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft tr\u00ean, con ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u00fang ta mang r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn trong t\u00e2m tr\u00ed c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta. Ngu\u1ed3n g\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh trong ti\u1ec1m th\u1ee9c n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chia th\u00e0nh hai lo\u1ea1i ch\u00ednh heuristic v\u00e0 neo c\u1ea3m x\u00fac.<\/span><\/p>\n

Heuristic l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng k\u1ebft n\u1ed1i ti\u1ec1m th\u1ee9c cho ph\u00e9p m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 nhanh, ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. Nh\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd h\u1ecdc Herbert Simon \u0111\u01b0a ra l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft v\u1ec1 “t\u00ednh duy l\u00fd b\u1ecb r\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c”, trong \u0111\u00f3 quy \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh, t\u00ednh h\u1ee3p l\u00fd c\u1ee7a con ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1ecb h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf. Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft cho r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u1ee3p l\u00fd ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a ra do nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf v\u1ed1n c\u00f3 c\u1ee7a nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian. Thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, t\u00e2m tr\u00ed con ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1ecfa \u0111\u00e1ng h\u01a1n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ed1i \u01b0u. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 “th\u1ecfa m\u00e3n.” Heuristic cho ph\u00e9p qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh th\u1ecfa m\u00e3n n\u00e0y b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh nhanh ch\u00f3ng, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00f4i khi, \u00edt h\u01a1n quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ed1i \u01b0u.<\/span><\/p>\n

L\u1ed7i h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng trong vi\u1ec7c ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u00e0 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u00f3 t\u1eeb heuristic \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 sai l\u1ec7ch nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c. Vi\u1ec7c n\u00e3o b\u1ed9 x\u1eed l\u00fd b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c ch\u1ee9ng c\u1ee9 m\u1edbi kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a th\u00f4ng tin \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o, x\u1eed l\u00fd m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch logic, kh\u00e1ch quan v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u ra h\u1ee3p l\u00fd. Thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, th\u00f4ng tin ho\u1eb7c b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c truy\u1ec1n qua l\u0103ng k\u00ednh heuristic v\u00e0 tr\u1ea3i qua qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh x\u1eed l\u00fd ch\u1ee7 quan d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean kinh nghi\u1ec7m v\u00e0 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c c\u1ee7a ri\u00eang c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n. Thi\u00ean v\u1ecb l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t xu h\u01b0\u1edbng chung trong vi\u1ec7c ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh do heuristic. H\u1ea7u h\u1ebft, m\u1ed9t quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh thi\u00ean v\u1ecb l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00f4ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh m\u00e0 th\u00f4ng tin c\u1ea3m x\u00fac g\u1eafn li\u1ec1n v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng suy ngh\u0129 v\u00e0 tr\u1ea3i nghi\u1ec7m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u01b0u tr\u1eef trong k\u00fd \u1ee9c c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 neo c\u1ea3m x\u00fac (Campbell, Whitehead, & Finkelstein, 2009). \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean (c\u00e1c) kinh nghi\u1ec7m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u01b0u tr\u1eef trong b\u1ed9 nh\u1edb d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh heuristic, ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn, chi ph\u1ed1i h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 t\u00ednh khi \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn. S\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c gi\u1eefa hai tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u0169ng x\u1ea3y ra t\u1ee9c th\u1eddi theo ph\u1ea3n x\u1ea1. Heuristic v\u00e0 c\u00e1c neo c\u1ea3m x\u00fac c\u00f9ng nhau t\u1ea1o th\u00e0nh n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 thi\u00ean v\u1ecb.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t h\u1ecdc vi\u00ean qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd d\u1ef1 \u00e1n, ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh trong c\u00e1c t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n, ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng th\u00e0nh ki\u1ebfn v\u00e0 sai l\u1ea7m c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng, kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m tra s\u1ef1 thi\u00ean v\u1ecb, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n \u0111\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh vi v\u00e0 khuynh h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c b\u00ean li\u00ean quan. \u1ede c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n, chuy\u00ean gia d\u1ef1 \u00e1n ph\u1ea3i v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua c\u00e1c suy ngh\u0129 xuy\u00ean t\u1ea1c, l\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n v\u00e0 k\u00fd \u1ee9c sai l\u1ec7ch (Campbell, Whitehead, & Finkelstein, 2009). M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 khuynh h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n, ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o d\u1ef1 \u00e1n ph\u1ea3i xem x\u00e9t quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m v\u00e0 x\u1eed l\u00fd c\u00e1c r\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 l\u00f9i m\u1ed9t b\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ea7y th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t v\u1ec1 t\u00ednh kh\u00e1ch quan, nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c kh\u00e1ch quan v\u00e0 t\u00ednh ch\u1ee7 quan c\u1ee7a t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng (\u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c b\u00ean li\u00ean quan).<\/span><\/p>\n

H\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1eebng l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ec3 suy ngh\u0129 b\u1ecb chi ph\u1ed1i b\u1edfi th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro trong t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng, v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f4i khi l\u00e0 c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 xung quanh. Th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i tinh th\u1ea7n ho\u1eb7c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ph\u00e2n v\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafc, \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c (Hillson, & Murray-Webster, 2006). Th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro kh\u00e1c nhau t\u1eeb m\u1ea3ng n\u00e0y sang m\u1ea3ng kh\u00e1c v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a con ng\u01b0\u1eddi (Weber, Blais, & Betz, 2002). B\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh s\u1ef1 vi\u1ec7c, kinh nghi\u1ec7m trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, tr\u1ea3i nghi\u1ec7m r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 t\u00ednh c\u00e1ch c\u00f9ng nhau ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u1edf c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 kh\u00e1c nhau cho c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean r\u1ee7i ro; v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n trong nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c v\u1ec1 r\u1ee7i ro t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng, do \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u b\u1eb1ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ph\u1ecfng \u0111o\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o d\u1ef1 \u00e1n ph\u1ea3i c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u0111\u01b0a ra b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh quan tr\u1ecdng n\u00e0o. T\u00ednh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean r\u1ee7i ro nh\u01b0 v\u1eady ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00e0nh v\u1ec1 c\u1ea3m x\u00fac c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh theo nhi\u1ec1u c\u00e1ch. Nh\u01b0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c c\u1ea3m x\u00fac ho\u1eb7c t\u1ef1 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c r\u1ee7i ro, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 cho ph\u00e9p nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o v\u00e0 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng. S\u1ef1 thi\u00ean v\u1ecb trong ti\u1ec1m th\u1ee9c t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00eam v\u00e0o nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c r\u1ee7i ro d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng c\u00e1c neo c\u1ea3m x\u00fac v\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh heuristic, v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f3 c\u0169ng\u00a0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu trong nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c t\u1ee9c th\u1eddi v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn (Campbell, Whitehead, & Finkelstein, 2009). Thay v\u00ec l\u00e0m theo b\u1ea3n n\u0103ng, m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd d\u1ef1 \u00e1n bi\u1ebft \u0111i\u1ec1u ti\u1ebft c\u1ea3m x\u00fac s\u1ebd th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh trong vi\u1ec7c t\u1ef1 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd, t\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh khinh su\u1ea5t.<\/span><\/p>\n

Th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro doanh nghi\u1ec7p l\u00e0 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c v\u0129 m\u00f4 khi \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong s\u1ed1 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi cung c\u1ea5p th\u00f4ng tin cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd d\u1ef1 \u00e1n, nh\u01b0 trong H\u00ecnh 2. Th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 ho\u1eb7c th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a c\u1ea5p tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c trong t\u1ea7m tay, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c v\u1ec1 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1eaft l\u1ecdc, s\u1ebd quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh khi \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn. H\u00ecnh 2 cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t lu\u1ed3ng c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean r\u1ee7i ro, xem x\u00e9t c\u00e1c c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u1ee3p l\u00fd v\u00e0 th\u00f4ng minh v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t c\u1ea3m x\u00fac trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd d\u1ef1 \u00e1n th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng m\u00e0 nh\u1eefng sai l\u1ea7m trong vi\u1ec7c ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1ee3i \u00edch r\u1ee7i ro c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y ra h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng. \u0110a ph\u1ea7n, con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ec5 nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u00edch r\u1ee7i ro, nh\u01b0ng th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh trung l\u1eadp v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i \u0111a h\u00f3a c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u1ee7a t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh trong H\u00ecnh 2, t\u00edch h\u1ee3p t\u01b0 duy d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 c\u1ea3m x\u00fac, cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00fap ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u00e1n \u0111o\u00e1n trong c\u00e1c t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. L\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u00f3 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u00f4ng minh v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t c\u1ea3m x\u00fac b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc r\u1ee7i ro t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 s\u1eafp x\u1ebfp nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c r\u1ee7i ro. M\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y bao g\u1ed3m t\u1ef1 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c, t\u1ef1 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd v\u00e0 t\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u00e1c quan \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u00f4ng qua ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i v\u00f2ng m\u1edf.<\/span><\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c c\u1ee7a tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 c\u1ea3m x\u00fac, ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p, nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ec3 g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n n\u00e2ng cao hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o d\u1ef1 \u00e1n. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i th\u00f4ng minh v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t c\u1ea3m x\u00fac c\u00f3 s\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec1 kh\u00e1ng cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ti\u1ec1m th\u1ee9c v\u00e0 th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ea3m x\u00fac kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch th\u1ef1c h\u00e0nh t\u1ef1 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c, t\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u1ea3m, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn ra v\u00e0 hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng l\u1ed7 h\u1ed5ng trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 cho ph\u00e9p b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng, d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean r\u1ee7i ro. Ch\u00eca kh\u00f3a cho h\u00e0nh vi th\u00f4ng minh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u1ea3m x\u00fac, d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean r\u1ee7i ro l\u00e0 n\u00e2ng cao nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c v\u1ec1 suy ngh\u0129, l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn v\u00e0 h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 tinh th\u1ea7n v\u00e0 v\u1eadt ch\u1ea5t.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd d\u1ef1 \u00e1n th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng m\u00e0 nh\u1eefng sai l\u1ea7m trong vi\u1ec7c ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1ee3i \u00edch r\u1ee7i ro c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y ra h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng. \u0110a ph\u1ea7n, con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ec5 nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u00edch r\u1ee7i ro, nh\u01b0ng th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh trung l\u1eadp v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i \u0111a h\u00f3a c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u1ee7a t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[250],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37732"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37732"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37732\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":69385,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37732\/revisions\/69385"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}