{"id":37773,"date":"2023-12-08T23:43:18","date_gmt":"2023-12-08T23:43:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/du-an-thuong-khong-chac-chan-tai-sao.html"},"modified":"2023-12-11T21:31:48","modified_gmt":"2023-12-11T21:31:48","slug":"du-an-thuong-khong-chac-chan-tai-sao","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/du-an-thuong-khong-chac-chan-tai-sao.html","title":{"rendered":"D\u1ef1 \u00e1n th\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn. T\u1ea1i sao?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

N\u1ebfu ph\u1ea3i l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn 03 kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m ti\u00eau bi\u1ec3u nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd d\u1ef1 \u00e1n, t\u00f4i s\u1ebd ch\u1ecdn Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb (Value<\/em>), Con ng\u01b0\u1eddi (People<\/em>) v\u00e0 S\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn (Uncertainty<\/em>).<\/p>\n

T\u1ea1i sao d\u1ef1 \u00e1n l\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Th\u1eed ngh\u0129 m\u00e0 xem. S\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn l\u00e0 b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c s\u1ed1ng! Do \u0111\u00f3, ch\u1eb3ng c\u00f3 g\u00ec \u0111\u00e1ng ng\u1ea1c nhi\u00ean khi m\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 \u00e1n, ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n trong cu\u1ed9c s\u1ed1ng th\u1ef1c, ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y. B\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 n\u01a1i \u0111\u00e2u, b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 khi n\u00e0o, v\u00e0 b\u1eb1ng b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 c\u00e1ch n\u00e0o.<\/p>\n

Nhi\u1ec1u ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng trong qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd d\u1ef1 \u00e1n nh\u1eb1m m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u, khai th\u00e1c ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn. T\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn c\u00f3 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chia s\u1ebb v\u1edbi nhau hay kh\u00f4ng? M\u1ea5t bao l\u00e2u \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n n\u00f3? Chi ph\u00ed cho \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0 bao nhi\u00eau? Ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd l\u00e0m g\u00ec trong th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi? \u0110\u1ed9i ng\u0169 c\u00f3 g\u1eafn k\u1ebft v\u00e0 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 nhau l\u00e0m t\u1ed1t c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c kh\u00f4ng? Li\u1ec7u r\u1eb1ng t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c b\u00ean li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tham gia? R\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 v\u1eady \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7t ra v\u00ec s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn, v\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta c\u0169ng c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft ch\u00fang trong su\u1ed1t d\u1ef1 \u00e1n.<\/p>\n

Trong m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p, b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn n\u00e0o kh\u00e1c ngo\u00e0i vi\u1ec7c c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn ngay t\u1eeb khi d\u1ef1 \u00e1n b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u2013 v\u1edbi ph\u1ea1m vi c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, d\u1ef1 to\u00e1n chi ti\u1ebft, k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch chi ti\u1ebft trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng, k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro chi ti\u1ebft. Sau \u0111\u00f3, b\u1ea1n thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng c\u01a1 s\u1edf (baselines<\/em>), qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh ti\u1ebfn tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong su\u1ed1t d\u1ef1 \u00e1n theo \u0111\u00fang quy tr\u00ecnh c\u00e1c b\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n

Trong nh\u1eefng tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p kh\u00e1c, b\u1ea1n b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea1m vi s\u01a1 b\u1ed9, sau \u0111\u00f3 chi ti\u1ebft h\u00f3a ch\u00fang trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u v\u00e0 kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1. B\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n l\u1eadp d\u1ef1 to\u00e1n v\u00e0 l\u00ean k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch chi ti\u1ebft c\u00e0ng s\u1edbm c\u00e0ng t\u1ed1t, th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm nh\u1eefng ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i v\u00e0 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c t\u1eeb c\u00e1c b\u00ean li\u00ean quan. B\u1ea1n th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch theo t\u1eebng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u00e0 khi d\u1ef1 \u00e1n t\u1ea1o ra k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3. B\u1ea1n s\u1ebd qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro th\u00f4ng qua m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng v\u1edbi m\u1ecdi s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i.<\/p>\n

T\u00f4i v\u1eeba m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 hai c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn theo hai th\u00e1i c\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c nhau trong nh\u1eefng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra khi qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd d\u1ef1 \u00e1n, nh\u01b0ng ch\u00fang kh\u00f4ng lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb l\u1eabn nhau. C\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd d\u1ef1 \u00e1n th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng l\u00e0 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u00e0 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng h\u01b0\u1edbng ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o ho\u00e0n c\u1ea3nh c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c trong b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n n\u00e0o l\u00e0 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro. \u0110\u00f4i khi, vi\u1ec7c s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c v\u1edbi k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m m\u1ea5t qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng s\u1ee9c so v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c t\u1eadp trung cung c\u1ea5p gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch nhanh ch\u00f3ng. L\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c qu\u00e1 ch\u0103m ch\u1ec9 ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh K\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch B c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c K\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch A. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, vi\u1ec7c ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng m\u1ecdi r\u1ee7i ro c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 t\u1ea7m v\u1edbi c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m d\u1ef1 \u00e1n, v\u00e0 khi s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o d\u1ef1 \u00e1n l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn v\u00e0 quan tr\u1ecdng, vi\u1ec7c ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 th\u00ed nghi\u1ec7m c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 m\u1ea1o hi\u1ec3m v\u00e0 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c. Do \u0111\u00f3, qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro theo tr\u00ecnh t\u1ef1 c\u00e1c b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p c\u00f3 l\u1ebd s\u1ebd hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

Khi b\u1ea1n qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd d\u1ef1 \u00e1n, s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 c\u1ed9i ngu\u1ed3n g\u00e2y ra nh\u1eefng tr\u1edf ng\u1ea1i b\u1ea5t t\u1eadn. Nh\u01b0ng h\u00e3y nh\u1edb r\u1eb1ng, n\u00f3 c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 th\u1eddi c\u01a1 \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea1n n\u1eafm b\u1eaft nh\u1eefng c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i m\u1edbi. Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u00f4i khi c\u0169ng quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u01b0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda. V\u00ec v\u1eady, h\u00e3y chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd v\u00e0 h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb ch\u00fang!<\/p>\n

Ng\u01b0\u1eddi h\u1ecdc qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd d\u1ef1 \u00e1n nh\u01b0 ch\u00fang ta n\u00ean t\u00f2 m\u00f2, s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 v\u00e0 t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u nhi\u1ec1u c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 ho\u00e0n c\u1ea3nh c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch to\u00e0n v\u1eb9n, \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh h\u01b0\u1edbng ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn sao cho ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p nh\u1ea5t nh\u1eb1m qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn trong d\u1ef1 \u00e1n.<\/p>\n

Theo \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a, s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 100%. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao t\u00f4i ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng, \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi n\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00fa v\u1ecb v\u00e0 th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c nh\u1ea5t trong qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd d\u1ef1 \u00e1n. V\u00ec n\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a m\u1ecdi d\u1ef1 \u00e1n, b\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 lo\u1ea1i h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u00e1n g\u00ec, trong ng\u00e0nh n\u00e0o, v\u1edbi m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn ra sao \u0111\u1ec3 chuy\u1ec3n giao d\u1ef1 \u00e1n th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng, t\u00f4i ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn l\u00e0 mi\u1ec1n hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd d\u1ef1 \u00e1n quan tr\u1ecdng. Ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn \u0111\u1ea5y!<\/p>\n

T\u00e1c gi\u1ea3<\/u><\/strong>: Jean-Luc Favrot, Th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean \u0110\u1ed9i ng\u0169 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n PMBOK Guide Seventh Edition<\/p>\n

Ngu\u1ed3n<\/strong><\/span>:\u00a0Uncertainty. Really?<\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7n Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd d\u1ef1 \u00e1n ATOHA bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

7 Nguy\u00ean l\u00fd Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd R\u1ee7i ro – Seven Risk Management Principles<\/p>\n

Th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u00e1n: T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n<\/p>\n

Tr\u00ed th\u00f4ng minh r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u00f4ng minh v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t c\u1ea3m x\u00fac cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u1ef1c h\u00e0nh qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd d\u1ef1 \u00e1n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

N\u1ebfu ph\u1ea3i l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn 03 kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m ti\u00eau bi\u1ec3u nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd d\u1ef1 \u00e1n, t\u00f4i s\u1ebd ch\u1ecdn Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb (Value), Con ng\u01b0\u1eddi (People) v\u00e0 S\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn (Uncertainty). T\u1ea1i sao d\u1ef1 \u00e1n l\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn? Th\u1eed ngh\u0129 m\u00e0 xem. S\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn l\u00e0 b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c s\u1ed1ng! Do \u0111\u00f3, ch\u1eb3ng […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[250],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37773"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37773"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37773\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37773"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37773"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37773"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}