{"id":41447,"date":"2023-12-10T02:43:50","date_gmt":"2023-12-10T02:43:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/5-ao-tuong-nghiem-trong-ma-bat-ky-nguoi-khoi-nghiep-nao-cung-can-tranh.html"},"modified":"2023-12-13T04:13:34","modified_gmt":"2023-12-13T04:13:34","slug":"5-ao-tuong-nghiem-trong-ma-bat-ky-nguoi-khoi-nghiep-nao-cung-can-tranh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/5-ao-tuong-nghiem-trong-ma-bat-ky-nguoi-khoi-nghiep-nao-cung-can-tranh.html","title":{"rendered":"5 \u1ea3o t\u01b0\u1edfng nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng m\u00e0 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u1edfi nghi\u1ec7p n\u00e0o c\u0169ng c\u1ea7n tr\u00e1nh"},"content":{"rendered":"
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M\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o lu\u00f4n suy ngh\u0129 th\u1ea5u \u0111\u00e1o, m\u1ea1ch l\u1ea1c<\/strong> l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng trong m\u1ed9t startup<\/strong> – n\u01a1i m\u00e0 nh\u1eefng quan \u0111i\u1ec3m, suy ngh\u0129 thi\u1ebfu ch\u00edn ch\u1eafn, v\u1ed9i v\u00e0ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng sai l\u1ea7m v\u1ec1 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u1ea5t nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng. Trong cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch The Art of Thinking Clearly<\/strong> (Ngh\u1ec7 thu\u1eadt suy ngh\u0129 m\u1ea1ch l\u1ea1c – Harper, 2013), t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3, doanh nh\u00e2n Rolf Dobelli<\/strong> \u0111\u00e3 chia s\u1ebb r\u1eb1ng, \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 99 sai l\u1ea7m ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn m\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta c\u1ea7n bi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n. D\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 5 trong s\u1ed1 h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c doanh nh\u00e2n kh\u1edfi nghi\u1ec7p.<\/strong><\/p>\n

1. Ng\u1ee5y bi\u1ec7n chi ph\u00ed ch\u00ecm (Sunk cost Fallacay): Ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u n\u00ean ch\u00fang ta bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c<\/h2>\n
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Trong kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc, chi ph\u00ed ch\u00ecm (Suck cost) l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u1ecf ra v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 thu h\u1ed3i l\u1ea1i. Ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n, m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 1 tri\u1ec7u USD v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 m\u1edbi nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3. S\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n 1 tri\u1ec7u USD \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecf ra l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n chi ph\u00ed ch\u00ecm v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 l\u1ea5y l\u1ea1i. Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00f4ng ty v\u1eabn quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi s\u1ef1 m\u1ea5t m\u00e1t \u0111\u00f3.<\/em><\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5 kh\u00e1c, b\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e3 mua m\u1ed9t t\u1ea5m v\u00e9 xem phim m\u00e0 \u0111\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n s\u00e1t ng\u00e0y chi\u1ebfu, b\u1ea1n b\u1ed7ng b\u1ecb \u1ed1m. D\u00f9 v\u1eady, b\u1ea1n v\u1eabn quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111i v\u00ec ti\u1ebfc ti\u1ec1n mua v\u00e9. L\u00fac n\u00e0y, b\u1ea1n tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh n\u1ea1n nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1i g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 “ng\u1ee5y bi\u1ec7n chi ph\u00ed ch\u00ecm”: \u0110i hay kh\u00f4ng, b\u1ea1n v\u1eabn m\u1ea5t ti\u1ec1n. Nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu \u0111i ra ngo\u00e0i, b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem phim nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb \u1ed1m n\u1eb7ng h\u01a1n. R\u00f5 r\u00e0ng, b\u1ea1n l\u1ea1i t\u1ed1n th\u00eam chi ph\u00ed thu\u1ed1c thang so v\u1edbi ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u1edf nh\u00e0 v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 m\u1ea5t ti\u1ec1n mua v\u00e9.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Ng\u1ee5y bi\u1ec7n chi ph\u00ed ch\u00ecm ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 v\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecf ra qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u n\u00ean ch\u00fang ta v\u1eabn ph\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c cho d\u00f9 bi\u1ebft nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i. \u0110\u00f3 ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 c\u00e1i l\u00fd \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u00fang ta kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 t\u1eeb b\u1ecf.<\/p>\n

\"Ng\u1ee5y<\/p>\n

B\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecf ra m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 v\u1ed1n l\u1edbn, c\u1ed9ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u00f3 h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed h\u00e0ng n\u0103m tr\u1eddi n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c cho m\u1ed9t k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch marketing v\u00f4 ngh\u0129a. Nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n ph\u00e2n v\u00e2n li\u1ec7u r\u1eb1ng c\u00f3 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i “\u00e1nh s\u00e1ng cu\u1ed1i \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ea7m”<\/em>, v\u00e0, m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch th\u1eb3ng th\u1eafn, b\u1ea1n c\u0169ng c\u00f3 c\u00f9ng lo l\u1eafng nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u1edf ch\u1ed7 b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn n\u00e0o kh\u00e1c ngo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c b\u00e1m theo k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch b\u1edfi v\u00ec t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1n b\u1ea1c, th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng s\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3. Ch\u01b0a k\u1ec3 r\u1eb1ng, b\u1ea1n c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n m\u1ea5t th\u1ec3 di\u1ec7n.<\/p>\n

Ch\u00ednh suy ngh\u0129 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn b\u1ea1n tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh n\u1ea1n nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a “ng\u1ee5y bi\u1ec7n chi ph\u00ed ch\u00ecm”<\/strong><\/em>. “Toa thu\u1ed1c” m\u00e0 Dobelli k\u00ea cho ch\u00fang ta nh\u01b0 sau: H\u00e3y qu\u00ean \u0111i qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfn v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda tr\u01b0\u1edbc, hay ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n, h\u00e3y qu\u00ean \u0111i nh\u1eefng g\u00ec b\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 th\u1eadt.<\/strong> H\u00e3y t\u1ef1 h\u1ecfi m\u00ecnh n\u1ebfu c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian h\u01a1n th\u00ec li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 mang l\u1ea1i k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1eb9p kh\u00f4ng? N\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng, h\u00e3y c\u1eaft l\u1ed7 v\u00e0 quay tr\u1edf v\u1ec1 t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ho\u1eb7c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n kh\u00e1c.<\/strong><\/p>\n

2. S\u1ef1 thi\u00ean v\u1ecb d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean thuy\u1ebft so s\u00e1nh x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i (Social-comparison bias): Anh \u1ea5y gi\u1ecfi, anh \u1ea5y s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn ch\u00fang ta tr\u1edf n\u00ean k\u00e9m c\u1ecfi h\u01a1n<\/h2>\n
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Thuy\u1ebft so s\u00e1nh x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u00f3 vi\u1ec7c ch\u00fang ta li\u00ean t\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 v\u1ec1 b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n v\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c s\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch so s\u00e1nh b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n ch\u00fang ta v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c. V\u00ec v\u1eady, m\u1ed7i ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y h\u01a1i ghen t\u1ef5 khi th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c so s\u00e1nh \u0111i l\u00ean (th\u1ea5y ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c gi\u1ecfi h\u01a1n m\u00ecnh \u1edf l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c m\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 cao) v\u00e0 c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y m\u00ecnh t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n khi so s\u00e1nh \u0111i xu\u1ed1ng (th\u1ea5y ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c k\u00e9m h\u01a1n m\u00ecnh \u1edf l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c m\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 cao). Ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n, s\u1ed1ng g\u1ea7n ho\u1eb7c ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi gi\u00e0u, b\u1ea1n th\u1ea5y m\u00ecnh thi\u1ebfu th\u1ed1n; s\u1ed1ng g\u1ea7n ho\u1eb7c ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac nhi\u1ec1u v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi ngh\u00e8o, b\u1ea1n th\u1ea5y m\u00ecnh th\u1eadt may m\u1eafn.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u00a0<\/div>\n

B\u1ea1n quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00f4ng thu\u00ea m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u1ebb tu\u1ed5i \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. T\u1ea1i sao \u01b0? B\u1edfi v\u00ec b\u1ea1n s\u1ee3 s\u1ebd qu\u00e1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o h\u1ecd. \u0110\u00f3 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u c\u00f4ng ty \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c1 th\u01b0\u1eddng thi\u00ean v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c t\u1ea1o c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i th\u0103ng ti\u1ebfn cho nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 th\u00e2m ni\u00ean v\u00e0 trung th\u00e0nh thay v\u00ec tr\u1ecdng d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e2n t\u00e0i tr\u1ebb.<\/p>\n

\"Ng\u1ee5y<\/p>\n

\u1ede \u0111\u00e2y, r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 thi\u00ean v\u1ecb d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft so s\u00e1nh x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 con ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean nh\u1eefng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb ri\u00eang c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 l\u1ea1i d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o c\u00e1ch m\u00e0 h\u1ecd xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c, k\u1ec3 c\u1ea3 s\u1ebfp c\u0169ng v\u1eady. Ch\u00ednh v\u00ec th\u1ebf, b\u1ea1n quay l\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng. \u0110\u00e2y th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1ea5t t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7.<\/p>\n

Dobelli m\u01b0\u1ee3n l\u1eddi khuy\u00ean c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1ea1o hi\u1ec3m v\u00e0 c\u1ef1u gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c s\u00e1ng t\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a Apple Guy Kawazaki<\/strong>: Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia “tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i” kh\u1edfi nghi\u1ec7p h\u1ea1ng A s\u1ebd tuy\u1ec3n d\u1ee5ng nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n ch\u00ednh h\u1ecd, trong khi, h\u1ea1ng B s\u1ebd tuy\u1ec3n nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y m\u00ecnh gi\u1ecfi h\u01a1n v\u00e0 c\u1ee9 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c theo m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh nh\u01b0 v\u1eady.<\/strong> Thu\u00ea nh\u1eefng nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean h\u1ea1ng B v\u00e0 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 “gi\u01b0\u01a1ng oai” v\u1edbi nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean h\u1ea1ng Z – \u0111\u00e2y ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 Steve Jobs g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng “Bozo Explosion”<\/em><\/strong>. C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, khi c\u00f4ng ty \u0111ang tr\u00ean \u0111\u00e0 l\u00e0m \u0103n ph\u00e1t \u0111\u1ea1t v\u00e0 b\u1ed7ng nhi\u00ean Z xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n th\u00ec t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ec9nh th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng, doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd lao d\u1ed1c kh\u00f4ng phanh. L\u00fac n\u00e0y, “b\u00f3ng ma” c\u1ee7a Bozo b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n, b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh, ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m, thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf, ch\u0103m s\u00f3c kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p l\u00fac n\u00e0y l\u00e0 “thay m\u00e1u” \u0111\u1ed9i ng\u0169 nh\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n – \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n trong th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn.<\/p>\n

Thay v\u00ec nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, h\u00e3y t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm nh\u1eefng con ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea7y tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho b\u1ea1n m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t.<\/strong> N\u1ebfu h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n b\u1ea1n th\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n th\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00eam kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 d\u00e0nh cho b\u1ea1n m\u00e0 c\u00f2n cho c\u1ea3 start-up v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c tuy\u1ec3n d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p.<\/p>\n

3. Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng “\u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda”: Lu\u00f4n m\u1edf c\u1eeda cho t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn<\/h2>\n

Cho d\u00f9 b\u1ea1n \u0111\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng ch\u1ee5c cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch b\u00ean c\u1ea1nh gi\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecdc khi c\u00f3 th\u1eddi gian ho\u1eb7c c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc v\u00f4 s\u1ed1 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng ra t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n kh\u00fac kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng, Dobelli n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c ch\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3n c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 m\u1ed9t quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00edn ch\u1eafn n\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng s\u1ebd d\u1eabn t\u1edbi t\u1ed1n th\u1eddi gian, ti\u1ec1n b\u1ea1c v\u00e0 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/div>\n

\"Ng\u1ee5y<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c kinh doanh, \u00f4ng nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh, \u0111\u00f3 “ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 l\u1eddi tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec kh\u00f4ng tham gia”.<\/em> Do \u0111\u00f3, h\u00e3y \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00f3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ecf qua nh\u1eefng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 “\u0111\u1eb7t t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c qu\u1ea3 tr\u1ee9ng v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng chi\u1ebfc gi\u1ecf t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t”.<\/em> Dobelli c\u0169ng li\u00ean t\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn Xu Xiang<\/strong> – Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 Zexi Investment<\/strong> v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 th\u00e1m hi\u1ec3m ng\u01b0\u1eddi T\u00e2y Ban Nha Cortes<\/strong> – ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ed1t ch\u00e1y t\u00e0u c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh sau khi \u0111\u1eb7t ch\u00e2n l\u00ean l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a k\u1ebb th\u00f9. T\u1ea1i sao? B\u1edfi v\u00ec \u0111\u1ed9i qu\u00e2n c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn n\u00e0o kh\u00e1c ngo\u00e0i vi\u1ec7c ph\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfn v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n

\n

Hern\u00e1n Cortes l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 th\u00e1m hi\u1ec3m n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng ng\u01b0\u1eddi T\u00e2y Ban Nha. V\u00e0o n\u0103m 1519, \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 huy m\u1ed9t \u0111o\u00e0n g\u1ed3m 11 con t\u00e0u v\u1edbi h\u01a1n 150 th\u1ee7y th\u1ee7 t\u1eeb Cuba t\u1edbi b\u00e1n \u0111\u1ea3o Yucatan v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u1ea5y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kho b\u00e1u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi th\u1eddi b\u1ea5y gi\u1edd.<\/em><\/p>\n

Khi \u0111i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1eeda h\u00e0nh tr\u00ecnh, nhi\u1ec1u th\u1ee7y th\u1ee7 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u quay sang than v\u00e3n v\u00ec m\u1ec7t m\u1ecfi v\u00e0 c\u00f3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f2n h\u1ed1i h\u1eadn l\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 tham gia. Cortes th\u1eadt s\u1ef1 \u0111au \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0 khi \u0111o\u00e0n t\u00e0u c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u0111\u1eb7t ch\u00e2n l\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea3o Yucatan, tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9i qu\u00e2n canh gi\u1eef kho b\u00e1u, \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3i v\u1edbi \u0111o\u00e0n th\u1ee7y th\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh: “H\u00e3y \u0111\u1ed1t h\u1ebft to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 thuy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta \u0111i”.<\/em><\/p>\n

C\u1ea3 th\u1ee7y th\u1ee7 \u0111o\u00e0n hoang mang v\u00e0 lo l\u1eafng h\u1ecfi n\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ed1t thuy\u1ec1n th\u00ec ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn s\u1ebd ch\u1ebft v\u00ec kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u1edf v\u1ec1. Cortes v\u1edbi v\u1ebb m\u1eb7t v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng t\u1ef1 tin tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi: “V\u00ec ch\u00fang ta nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1ebd chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng, s\u1ebd chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kho b\u00e1u v\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd tr\u1edf v\u1ec1 tr\u00ean nh\u1eefng con thuy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a k\u1ebb th\u00f9”.<\/em><\/p>\n

L\u1eddi n\u00f3i c\u1ee7a Cortes nh\u01b0 c\u00f3 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh lan truy\u1ec1n, th\u1ee7y th\u1ee7 \u0111o\u00e0n h\u1eebng h\u1ef1c kh\u00ed th\u1ebf, h\u1ecd h\u00e9t l\u1edbn, c\u00f9ng nhau n\u1ed5i l\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed1t thuy\u1ec1n v\u00e0 lao v\u00e0o chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u v\u1edbi s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh phi th\u01b0\u1eddng. V\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u k\u1ef3 di\u1ec7u \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra, l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean sau 600 n\u0103m, kho b\u00e1u \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb chinh ph\u1ee5c. T\u1ea1i sao th\u1ee7y th\u1ee7 \u0111o\u00e0n c\u1ee7a Cortes l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3, b\u1edfi h\u1ecd ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 2 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn: m\u1ed9t l\u00e0 gi\u00e0nh l\u1ea5y kho b\u00e1u, hai l\u00e0 ch\u1ebft.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

4. Th\u00e0nh ki\u1ebfn v\u1ec1 k\u1ebb s\u1ed1ng s\u00f3t (Survivorship bias): Ch\u00fang ta h\u00e3y nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 qu\u00ean \u0111i th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i<\/h2>\n

Th\u00e0nh ki\u1ebfn ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ed1ng s\u00f3t \u00e1m ch\u1ec9 r\u1eb1ng ch\u00fang ta th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng con ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng m\u00e0 qu\u00ean \u0111i lu\u00f4n t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i. Ch\u00fang ta nghe qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u v\u1ec1 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng, th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd vi\u1ebft s\u00e1ch, kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd m\u1edf trung t\u00e2m hu\u1ea5n luy\u1ec7n khi\u1ebfn ch\u00fang ta \u1ea3o t\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1eb1ng m\u00ecnh c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nh\u01b0 h\u1ecd. Ch\u00fang ta th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn t\u1ed1t m\u00e0 qu\u00ean \u0111i r\u1eb1ng lu\u00f4n c\u00f3 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed1i ngh\u1ecbch.<\/p>\n

\"Ng\u1ee5y<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/div>\n

Truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7n nay \u0111\u1ea7y r\u1eaby c\u00e1c c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng truy\u1ec1n c\u1ea3m h\u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea1n b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u kh\u1edfi nghi\u1ec7p. Tuy nhi\u00ean, Dobelli nh\u1eafc nh\u1edf r\u1eb1ng trong cu\u1ed9c s\u1ed1ng th\u1ef1c, th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng.<\/strong> \u0110\u1ecdc v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd \u0111\u1ec3 \u00fd \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn ch\u00fang ta r\u01a1i v\u00e0o th\u00e0nh ki\u1ebfn v\u1ec1 k\u1ebb s\u1ed1ng s\u00f3t – \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 qu\u00e1 cao nh\u1eefng c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i kh\u1edfi nghi\u1ec7p ch\u1ec9 d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 doanh nh\u00e2n tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ec9nh th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng g\u01b0\u01a1ng kinh doanh “\u0111\u00e3 ch\u00ecm xu\u1ed1ng \u0111\u00e1y”.<\/p>\n

“Toa thu\u1ed1c” c\u1ee7a Dobelli:<\/strong> Ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i khuynh h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u00e0y b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch “th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean t\u1edbi th\u0103m ngh\u0129a trang c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u00e1n m\u1edbi ch\u1edbm n\u1edf \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eaft ng\u1ea5m hay nh\u1eefng t\u1ea5m g\u01b0\u01a1ng kinh doanh th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i”<\/em>, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed, b\u1ea1n ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u v\u1ec1 h\u1ecd.<\/p>\n

5. May m\u1eafn c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00ean phong: Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 g\u00ec c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ng\u0103n c\u1ea3n ch\u00fang ta b\u00e2y gi\u1edd<\/h2>\n

Start-up c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t ngo\u00e0i mong \u0111\u1ee3i v\u00e0 c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m hay \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh trong nh\u1eefng cu\u1ed9c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi. Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u r\u00f3t v\u1ed1n v\u00e0o doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n. V\u1edbi t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i li\u00ean doanh, nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng quy\u1ec1n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed l\u00e0 mua l\u1ea1i, th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 \u1edf r\u1ea5t g\u1ea7n. B\u1ea1n b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u tin r\u1eb1ng s\u1ed1 ph\u1eadn \u0111ang n\u1eb1m trong b\u00e0n tay c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, “v\u1ebd” ra s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty trong 10 n\u0103m n\u1eefa v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng t\u1ef7 USD \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed5 \u1eadp v\u00e0o b\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

\"Ng\u1ee5y<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, Dobelli mu\u1ed1n th\u1ee9c t\u1ec9nh b\u1ea1n v\u1edbi c\u1ee5m t\u1eeb r\u1eb1ng: “May m\u1eafn c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00ean phong”<\/strong>. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng d\u00f9ng th\u1eed s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m hay th\u01b0\u01a1ng hi\u1ec7u m\u1edbi v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 vui m\u1eebng ngo\u00e0i mong \u0111\u1ee3i. L\u1ee3i th\u1ebf \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn trong m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian nh\u01b0ng nh\u1eefng c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 ph\u1ea3i l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t ra ngo\u00e0i ch\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1edf \u0111\u1ea7u?<\/p>\n

V\u1eady l\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 bi\u1ebft startup c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng l\u00e0 do “may m\u1eafn c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00ean phong” hay do n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i? C\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi \u0111\u00f3 ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c v\u00e0 c\u1ea1nh tranh qua th\u1eddi gian. Th\u1ebf n\u00ean, thay v\u00ec v\u1ed9i v\u00e0ng ngh\u0129 v\u1ec1 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n th\u00ec h\u00e3y xem x\u00e9t m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch c\u1ea9n th\u1eadn v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u1edf hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh trong ng\u00e0nh, \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 xem th\u1eed li\u1ec7u ch\u00fang c\u00f3 c\u00f2n ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/strong> T\u00f3m l\u1ea1i, b\u1ea1n ph\u1ea3i khao kh\u00e1t nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng c\u1ea7n c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1c. <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

M\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o lu\u00f4n suy ngh\u0129 th\u1ea5u \u0111\u00e1o, m\u1ea1ch l\u1ea1c<\/strong> l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng trong m\u1ed9t startup<\/strong> – n\u01a1i m\u00e0 nh\u1eefng quan \u0111i\u1ec3m, suy ngh\u0129 thi\u1ebfu ch\u00edn ch\u1eafn, v\u1ed9i v\u00e0ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng sai l\u1ea7m v\u1ec1 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u1ea5t nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng. Trong cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch The Art of Thinking Clearly<\/strong> (Ngh\u1ec7 thu\u1eadt suy ngh\u0129 m\u1ea1ch l\u1ea1c – Harper, 2013), t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3, doanh nh\u00e2n Rolf Dobelli<\/strong> \u0111\u00e3 chia s\u1ebb r\u1eb1ng, \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 99 sai l\u1ea7m ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn m\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta c\u1ea7n bi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n. D\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 5 trong s\u1ed1 h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c doanh nh\u00e2n kh\u1edfi nghi\u1ec7p.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[452],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41447"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41447"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41447\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41447"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41447"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41447"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}