{"id":8188,"date":"2023-11-30T02:41:57","date_gmt":"2023-11-30T02:41:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/trang-thai-procyclic-trong-chu-ki-kinh-te-la-gi.html"},"modified":"2023-12-21T14:15:28","modified_gmt":"2023-12-21T07:15:28","slug":"trang-thai-procyclic-trong-chu-ki-kinh-te-la-gi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/trang-thai-procyclic-trong-chu-ki-kinh-te-la-gi.html","title":{"rendered":"Tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i Procyclic trong chu k\u00ec kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e0 g\u00ec?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
<\/div>
\n

(H\u00ecnh minh h\u1ecda: capital.com)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Procyclic<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

Procyclic (hay procyclical)<\/b> m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ho\u1eb7c d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 theo h\u01b0\u1edbng song song v\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t chu k\u00ec nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf.\u00a0<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t trong ba m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 kh\u00e1c nhau v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf: procyclic, countercyclic (ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 v\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c chi\u1ec1u nhau) ho\u1eb7c acyclic (ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kh\u00f4ng li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf).<\/p>\n

Procyclic \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan t\u00edch c\u1ef1c gi\u1eefa gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a, d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 ho\u1eb7c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng chung c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a, d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 ho\u1eb7c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng di chuy\u1ec3n c\u00f9ng h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 suy gi\u1ea3m khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf suy gi\u1ea3m.\u00a0<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 v\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf procyclic l\u00e0 t\u1ed5ng s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m qu\u1ed1c n\u1ed9i (GDP), lao \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed bi\u00ean. H\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 procyclic v\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng mua nhi\u1ec1u h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a t\u00f9y \u00fd h\u01a1n khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang trong tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i t\u1ed1t.\u00a0<\/p>\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i procyclical<\/font><\/h3>\n

C\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 h\u00e0nh vi t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a th\u01b0\u1eddng r\u01a1i v\u00e0o tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i procyclic trong chu k\u00ec b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 v\u00e0 suy tho\u00e1i. Khi c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf, nhi\u1ec1u th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng h\u00e0nh vi kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00f3 m\u00e0 c\u00f2n t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i.<\/p>\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5, trong cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u1edf t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9, \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t k\u00ec v\u1ecdng chung cho l\u1ee3i \u00edch t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra. Ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng chi ti\u00eau nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi vay \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p cho nh\u1eefng ng\u00f4i nh\u00e0 n\u1eb1m ngo\u00e0i kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng tr\u1ea3 n\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch h\u00e0nh vi \u0111\u00f3, v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 th\u00ec l\u00e0m r\u1ea5t \u00edt \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n nh\u1eefng xu h\u01b0\u1edbng nh\u01b0 v\u1eady.<\/p>\n

Ch\u1eebng n\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f2n \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a th\u1eddi k\u00ec “b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5” v\u00e0 nu\u00f4i d\u01b0\u1ee1ng n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, th\u00ec \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f2n ti\u1ebfp di\u1ec5n cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u v\u00e0 c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 kh\u00e1c tr\u1edf n\u00ean qu\u00e1 l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ecf qua, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5.\u00a0<\/p>\n

M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i khi giai \u0111o\u1ea1n “suy tho\u00e1i” c\u1ee7a chu k\u00ec t\u1edbi. Chi ti\u00eau cho ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng gi\u1ea3m, c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ty cho vay \u0111\u00e3 k\u00ecm h\u00e3m c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng cho vay c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, vi\u1ec7c t\u1ecbch thu t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ebf n\u1ee3 lan r\u1ed9ng tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u00e0 \u1edf khi th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p m\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7u l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 lu\u1eadt ph\u00e1p li\u00ean bang \u0111\u00e3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c so\u1ea1n th\u1ea3o \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n m\u1ecdi chuy\u1ec7n s\u1ebd t\u00e1i di\u1ec5n. C\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng \u0111i theo h\u01b0\u1edbng procyclic.<\/p>\n

N\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u00e0ng b\u1ecf xa th\u1eddi k\u00ec kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng \u0111\u00f3, chi ti\u00eau c\u00e0ng gia t\u0103ng v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 lu\u1eadt \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u1ebf t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh coi l\u00e0 phi\u1ec1n h\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb k\u00eau ca. T\u00e2m l\u00ed nh\u01b0 v\u1eady c\u0169ng l\u00e0 theo xu h\u01b0\u1edbng procyclic, b\u1edfi v\u00ec, tr\u1eeb khi c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00e1c \u0111i, th\u00ec c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c lu\u00f4n mong mu\u1ed1n lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 v\u1ebb \u0111ang th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng.\u00a0<\/p>\n

(Theo Investopedia<\/i>)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n Procyclic (hay procyclical) m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ho\u1eb7c d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 theo h\u01b0\u1edbng song song v\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t chu k\u00ec nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[414],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8188"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8188"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8188\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8188"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8188"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8188"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}