{"id":8287,"date":"2023-11-29T20:36:56","date_gmt":"2023-11-29T20:36:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/he-so-p-e-10-p-e-10-ratio-la-gi-cach-tinh-he-so-p-e-10.html"},"modified":"2023-12-21T14:17:04","modified_gmt":"2023-12-21T07:17:04","slug":"he-so-p-e-10-p-e-10-ratio-la-gi-cach-tinh-he-so-p-e-10","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/he-so-p-e-10-p-e-10-ratio-la-gi-cach-tinh-he-so-p-e-10.html","title":{"rendered":"H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 P\/E 10 (P\/E 10 Ratio) l\u00e0 g\u00ec? C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 P\/E 10"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u1ea2nh minh h\u1ecda: vabkennfagtor<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 P\/E 10<\/font><\/h2>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m<\/b><\/p>\n

H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 P\/E 10<\/b> trong ti\u1ebfng Anh l\u00e0 P\/E 10 Ratio<\/b><\/p>\n

H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 P\/E<\/b>\u00a010<\/b> l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o trong vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng P\/E trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian 10 n\u0103m, th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu. H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 P\/E 10 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e0m m\u01b0\u1ee3t \u0111\u1ec3 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf \u0111i s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a thu nh\u1eadp r\u00f2ng, g\u00e2y ra b\u1edfi nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trong m\u1ed9t chu k\u00ec kinh doanh.<\/p>\n

H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 P\/E 10 c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh theo chu k\u00ec (Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings – CAPE) ho\u1eb7c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 Shiller PE.<\/p>\n

Ngu\u1ed3n g\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 P\/E 10<\/font><\/h3>\n

H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ebfn b\u1edfi gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 Robert Shiller c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Yale, t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch “Irrational Exuberance”, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 gi\u00e0nh gi\u1ea3i th\u01b0\u1edfng Nobel v\u1ec1 Khoa h\u1ecdc Kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2013. Shiller \u0111\u00e3 thu h\u00fat r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u s\u1ef1 ch\u00fa \u00fd sau khi \u00f4ng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i \u0111i\u00ean r\u1ed3 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9 v\u1ec1 cu\u1ed1i nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1990 s\u1ebd tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t bong b\u00f3ng.\u00a0<\/p>\n

H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 P\/E 10 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng Benjamin Graham v\u00e0 David Dodd trong b\u1ed9 s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 huy\u1ec1n tho\u1ea1i n\u0103m 1934 “Security Analysis”. H\u1ecd g\u00e1n c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 P\/E phi logic l\u00ean nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f4i khi c\u1ef1c \u0111oan trong chu k\u00ec kinh doanh. \u0110\u1ec3 l\u00e0m m\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty trong m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian, Graham v\u00e0 Dodd \u0111\u00e3 khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng m\u1ee9c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m tr\u00ean m\u1ed7i c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu (EPS) – ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 5, 7 ho\u1eb7c 10 n\u0103m khi t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 P\/ E.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 P\/E 10<\/font><\/h3>\n

H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 P\/E 10 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh nh\u01b0 sau: l\u1ea5y EPS h\u00e0ng n\u0103m c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 S&P 500 trong 10 n\u0103m qua. \u0110i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn n\u00e0y theo l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t b\u1eb1ng\u00a0Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng\u00a0(CPI), ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 th\u00e0nh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u00f4 la ng\u00e0y nay. L\u1ea5y trung b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u EPS th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf n\u00e0y trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian 10 n\u0103m. Chia m\u1ee9c hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i cho s\u1ed1 EPS trung b\u00ecnh 10 n\u0103m \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 P\/E 10.<\/p>\n

H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 P\/E 10 thay \u0111\u1ed5i r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u theo th\u1eddi gian. Theo d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean trong “Irrational Exuberance”, t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p l\u00e0 4,78 v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12\/1920 l\u00ean m\u1ee9c cao l\u00e0 44,20 v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12\/1999. T\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn , m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 10 P\/E l\u1ecbch s\u1eed l\u00e0 16,7.<\/p>\n

S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eeb c\u1ea3 hai b\u00e1o c\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh (1881-1956) l\u1eabn th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf (1957 tr\u1edf \u0111i) t\u1eeb ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S&P, Shiller v\u00e0 John Campbell nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng CAPE c\u00e0ng th\u1ea5p th\u00ec kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng thu h\u1ed3i v\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e0ng cao trong 20 n\u0103m ti\u1ebfp theo.<\/p>\n

H\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u1ee7a H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 P\/E 10<\/font><\/h3>\n

M\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ch\u1ec9 tr\u00edch nh\u1eafm \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 10 P\/E \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c trong vi\u1ec7c b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ec9nh ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u00e1y c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, m\u1ed9t b\u00e0i b\u00e1o trong s\u1ed1 ra th\u00e1ng 9\/2011 c\u1ee7a T\u1ea1p ch\u00ed Hi\u1ec7p h\u1ed9i c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n M\u1ef9 l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 P\/E 10 cho S&P 500 l\u00e0 23,35 v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 7\/2011.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Khi so s\u00e1nh t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a P\/E 10 l\u00e0 16,41 s\u1ebd cho th\u1ea5y ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 cao h\u01a1n 40% t\u1ea1i th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00f3. B\u00e0i b\u00e1o cho r\u1eb1ng h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 P\/E 10 \u0111\u00e3 cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i xu\u1ed1ng qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c b\u1edfi c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 P\/E \u0111\u00e3 cho th\u1ea5y giao d\u1ecbch S&P 500 \u1edf b\u1ed9i s\u1ed1 16,17 (d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e1o c\u00e1o) ho\u1eb7c 14,84 (d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng).\u00a0<\/p>\n

M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 S&P 500 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m 16% trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ng t\u1eeb gi\u1eefa th\u00e1ng 7 \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1eefa th\u00e1ng 8 n\u0103m 2011, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y sau \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 35% t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 7\/2011 l\u00ean m\u1ee9c cao m\u1edbi v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 11\/2013.<\/p>\n

(Theo Investopedia<\/i>)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 P\/E 10 (ti\u1ebfng Anh: P\/E 10 Ratio) l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o trong vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng P\/E trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian 10 n\u0103m, th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu.\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[417],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8287"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8287"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8287\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8287"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8287"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/masterskills.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8287"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}